Tropical Storm GIL

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TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007
 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS.  RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI-S AND AMSU-B DEPICTED AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION...RESULTING FROM THE 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR THE CYCLONE
IS STILL EXPERIENCING. BASED ON THE ABOVE AS WELL AS 35 KT DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.
 
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS OR SO.  WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WOULD PROMOTE STRENGTHENING
IN THE NEAR TERM...GIL IS MOVING INTO A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
HOW MUCH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR SEPARATES THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG GIL
WILL TAKE TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW. BOTH SHIPS AND FSSE
MAINTAIN GIL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...
WHILE THE GFDL TAKES GIL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3
DAYS.  BASED ON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE THE GFDL
SOLUTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SHIPS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION...265/9...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  GIL SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  ONCE GIL WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER
COOLER WATERS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.9N 117.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.2N 122.2W    35 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 124.3W    35 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.5N 128.5W    30 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 132.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     05/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
 
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