Using various economic models and historical data to estimate the comprehensive effects of the Recovery Act, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) calculated that during the third quarter of 2011 at least 400,000 and possibly as many as 2.4 million people owed their jobs to Recovery funding/projects. CBO analysts also concluded that during the same period the national unemployment rate, currently 9.0 percent, was at least 0.2 percent – and possibly as much as 1.3 percent – lower than it would have been without the Recovery initiative.
Job Numbers Reported by Recipients of contracts, Grants and loans
| 2009 Q3 |
633,189 |
|---|
| 2009 Q4 |
608,078 |
|---|
| 2010 Q1 |
682,322 |
|---|
| 2010 Q2 |
750,045 |
|---|
| 2010 Q3 |
675,841 |
|---|
| 2010 Q4 |
582,089 |
|---|
| 2011 Q1 |
560,992 |
|---|
| 2011 Q2 |
555,029 |
|---|
Source: Recovery.gov
CBO’s high-end estimate of jobs is greater than the number shown on Recovery.gov for the same period (400,803) because only prime recipients of Recovery funds report jobs funded for contract, grant, and loan awards. Jobs at the sub-recipient level may or may not be reported, and jobs at the vendor level are not included in recipient reports. Nor do the reports measure or reflect effects that tax cuts, transfer payments, and other parts of the Recovery initiative may have on employment.
The CBO report provides estimates on total jobs
and the impact on the unemployment rate for every quarter since Congress passed the Recovery Act in February 2009 and also projects estimates for the remainder of 2011 and through the end of 2012.
Estimated Macroeconomic Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 2009 to 2012
Quarter |
Unemployment Rate
(Percentage Points) |
Employment
(Millions of People) |
|---|
| Low Estimate |
High Estimate |
Low Estimate |
High Estimate |
| 2009 (Calendar Year Quarter) |
|---|
| Q3 |
-0.2 |
-0.6 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
|---|
| Q4 |
-0.3 |
-1.1 |
0.5 |
1.9 |
|---|
| 2010 (Calendar Year Quarter) |
|---|
| Q1 |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
0.6 |
2.7 |
|---|
| Q2 |
-0.4 |
-1.8 |
0.7 |
3.4 |
|---|
| Q3 |
-0.4 |
-2.0 |
0.7 |
3.6 |
|---|
| Q4 |
-0.3 |
-1.9 |
0.6 |
3.5 |
|---|
| 2011 (Calendar Year Quarter) |
|---|
| Q1 |
-0.3 |
-1.8 |
0.6 |
3.3 |
|---|
| Q2 |
-0.3 |
-1.6 |
0.5 |
2.9 |
|---|
| Q3 |
-0.2 |
-1.3 |
0.4 |
2.4 |
|---|
| Q4 |
-0.2 |
-1.1 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
|---|
| 2012 (Calendar Year Quarter) |
|---|
| Q1 |
-0.1 |
-0.8 |
0.3 |
1.6 |
|---|
| Q2 |
-0.1 |
-0.7 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
|---|
| Q3 |
-0.1 |
-0.5 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
|---|
Source: Congressional Budget Office