000
WTNT32 KNHC 170245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BERMUDA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT22 KNHC 170245
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 63.1W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.2N 59.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.9N 54.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.9N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 420SW 360NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 62.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT22 KNHC 170245
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 63.1W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.2N 59.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.9N 54.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.9N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 420SW 360NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 62.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 170245
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 62.5W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 29 MPH...46 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM BERMUDA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE IN BERMUDA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170240
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 270SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 112.5W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 112.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170240
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL
MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PAUL SHOULD THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
PAUL SHOULD ALSO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170240
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 112.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL WILL
MOVE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PAUL SHOULD THEN MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY.
PAUL SHOULD ALSO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND DISSIPATE ON
THURSDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH PAUL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY LARGE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE COAST OF SINALOA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170240
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 270SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 112.5W
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 112.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 162353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT
BERMUDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 162353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT
BERMUDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162352
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. PAUL
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162352
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 112.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS TO
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS SOUTH OF SANTA FE AND SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST. PAUL
CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14
MPH...22 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA AND SHOULD
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DAMAGING
WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 162041
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.3W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 112.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 162041
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.3W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 112.4W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162041
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.
PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF
71 MPH...114 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 162041
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...HURRICANE PAUL SLOWS DOWN AND IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 112.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.4 WEST. PAUL HAS SLOWED
DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATE WEDNESDAY.
PAUL IS BARELY A HURRICANE...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN PUERTO CORTES
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H WITH A GUST OF
71 MPH...114 KM/H.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN ALSO IMPACTING THE AREA SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTNT32 KNHC 162035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 162035
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 162034
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 64.4W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.1N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.6N 40.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 52.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 420SW 360NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 44.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 162034
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 64.4W
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.1N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.6N 40.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 52.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 420SW 360NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 44.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161749
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161749
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161749
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161749
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161748
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...WEAKENING HURRICANE PAUL APPROACHING CABO SAN LAZARO ON THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...PAUL WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
A FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK
SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION NEAR PUERTO
CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA VERY SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161748
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...WEAKENING HURRICANE PAUL APPROACHING CABO SAN LAZARO ON THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 112.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN
COMPLETED.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...PAUL WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN
A FEW HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK
SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS NOW A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC WEATHER STATION NEAR PUERTO
CORTES RECENTLY REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 41 MPH...66 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD
BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA VERY SOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE
WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 161553
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...LAS BANDAS EXTERNAS DE RAFAEL SE ESTAN ACERCANDO A BERMUDA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...28.6 NORTE 64.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 255 MI...410 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 20 GRADOS A 24 MPH...39 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...971 MILIBARES...28.67 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.5 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 24 MPH...39 KM/H.
PARA ESTA NOCHE SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO
ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA
ENTRADA LA TARDE Y NOCHE DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN HAN AUMENTADO CERCA DE 90 MPH...
150 KM/H CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO
EN LA ESCALA DE SAFFIR-SIMPSON. UN DEBILITAMIENTO PAULATINO ES
PRONOSTICADO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DE SU CENTRO
HASTA A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA UNAS 2005 MILLAS...335 KM.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CASA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 971 MILIBARES...28.67 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA
TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA ENTRADA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 161553
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 16
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...LAS BANDAS EXTERNAS DE RAFAEL SE ESTAN ACERCANDO A BERMUDA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...28.6 NORTE 64.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 255 MI...410 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 20 GRADOS A 24 MPH...39 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...971 MILIBARES...28.67 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 28.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.5 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 24 MPH...39 KM/H.
PARA ESTA NOCHE SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO
ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA
ENTRADA LA TARDE Y NOCHE DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN HAN AUMENTADO CERCA DE 90 MPH...
150 KM/H CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO
EN LA ESCALA DE SAFFIR-SIMPSON. UN DEBILITAMIENTO PAULATINO ES
PRONOSTICADO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN FUERA DE SU CENTRO
HASTA A 35 MILLAS...55 KM...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA UNAS 2005 MILLAS...335 KM.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CASA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 971 MILIBARES...28.67 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA
TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA ENTRADA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM RAFAEL APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 64.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM RAFAEL APPROACHING BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 64.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 161443
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 64.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 270SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 64.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 161443
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 64.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 270SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 64.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 161443
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 64.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 270SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 64.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT22 KNHC 161443
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 64.9W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 110SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 270SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 64.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161442
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...HURRICANE PAUL MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A HURRY...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 112.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THAT AS PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
THERE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161442
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...HURRICANE PAUL MOVING TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A HURRY...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 112.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A WEAKENING PAUL MOVING OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AFTER THAT AS PAUL MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN
THERE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161441
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.2W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 112.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161441
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN
JUAN BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.2W
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 112.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 161224 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.3 NORTE 65.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 345 MI...555 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.0 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/H.
UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...
EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA ENTRADA LA TARDE
Y NOCHE DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE UNA
BOYA DE NOAA LOCALIZADA A MAS DE 150 MILLAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 52 MPH...90 KM/H.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA
TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA ENTRADA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 161224 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.3 NORTE 65.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 345 MI...555 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.0 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/H.
UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...
EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA ENTRADA LA TARDE
Y NOCHE DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE UNA
BOYA DE NOAA LOCALIZADA A MAS DE 150 MILLAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 52 MPH...90 KM/H.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA
TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA ENTRADA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 161223
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.3 NORTE 65.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 345 MI...555 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.0 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/H.
UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...
EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA ENTRADA LA TARDE
Y NOCHE DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE UNA
BOYA DE NOAA LOCALIZADA A MAS DE 150 MILLAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 52 MPH...90 KM/H.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA
TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA ENTRADA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 161223
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE-NORESTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...27.3 NORTE 65.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 345 MI...555 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 8:00 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.0 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26 KM/H.
UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...
EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA ENTRADA LA TARDE
Y NOCHE DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO. RECIENTEMENTE UNA
BOYA DE NOAA LOCALIZADA A MAS DE 150 MILLAS AL ESTE DEL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 52 MPH...90 KM/H.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA
TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA ENTRADA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BLAKE
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161206
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 112.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. PAUL HAS
ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21
MPH...33 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 161206
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 112.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. PAUL HAS
ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 21
MPH...33 KM/H. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. A TURN TO THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARRIVING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161200
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1200 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.3W AT 16/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.3W AT 16/1200Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.1W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161200
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1200 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.3W AT 16/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.3W AT 16/1200Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.1W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 112.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161157
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN
THE CENTER SHORTLY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...90 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT32 KNHC 161157
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN
THE CENTER SHORTLY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...90 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160900
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL MOVIENDOSE AHORA UN POCO MAS RAPIDO HACIA EL NORTE
NORESTE...
...SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DETERIORADAS EN BERMUDA EN LA TARDE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...26.6 NORTE 65.0 OESTE
CERCA DE 395 MI...635 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 16 MPH...26 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 5:00 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 26.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.0 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE A CERCA DE 16 MPH...26
KM/H...Y SE ESPERA ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL ESTA MANANA. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION
SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA EN LA TARDE HACIA LA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS SAFFIR-SIMPSON. POCO FORTALECIMIENTO SE
ESPERA HOY...CON UNA TENDENCIA A DEBILITARSE EL MIERCOLES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO. UNA BOYA DE NOAA
LOCALIZADA A MAS DE 150 MILLAS AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO VIENTOS SOSTENIDOS DE 49 MPH...80 KM/H CON UNA
RAFAGA DE 56 MPH...91 KM/H.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...SE ESPERAN VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN
BERMUDA EN LA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160853
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS JUST EAST
OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED MORE THAN 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160853
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS JUST EAST
OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED MORE THAN 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160852
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER SOUTHWESTERN BAJA LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A TURN TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160852
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012
...PAUL MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVER SOUTHWESTERN BAJA LATER
TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND A TURN TO THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS
IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160841
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 270SE 140SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.1W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 112.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160841
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..160NE 270SE 140SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 112.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 113.1W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 112.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTNT22 KNHC 160840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.3W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.3N 49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.7N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N 28.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.5N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 65.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT22 KNHC 160840
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.3W
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.3N 49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.7N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N 28.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.5N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 65.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160604
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL AHORA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE...
...SE ESPERA QUE PASE JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA EN LA TARDE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...25.9 NORTE 65.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 445 MI...715 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 2:00 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.3 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/H. UN
GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...
EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA EN LA TARDE O
ESTA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO MINIMO
ES POSIBLE HOY...CON UNA TENDENCIA A DEBILITARSE EL MIERCOLES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADOS EN
BERMUDA EN LA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160604
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST MARTES 16 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL AHORA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE...
...SE ESPERA QUE PASE JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA EN LA TARDE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...25.9 NORTE 65.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 445 MI...715 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NORESTE O 15 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 2:00 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.3 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NORESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KM/H. UN
GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...
EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA JUSTO AL ESTE DE BERMUDA EN LA TARDE O
ESTA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO MINIMO
ES POSIBLE HOY...CON UNA TENDENCIA A DEBILITARSE EL MIERCOLES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADOS EN
BERMUDA EN LA TARDE O NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160558
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...HURRICANE PAUL HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 113.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160558
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...HURRICANE PAUL HEADING TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 113.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST
OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA..PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD BE NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST
TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEST
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160556
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 65.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS
JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160556
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012
...RAFAEL NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 65.3W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS
JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 160314
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 PM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON WEAKENS FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND 1140
MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 MPH. PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND NORTH BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 MPH. PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190
MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...22.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
129.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON PRAPIROON.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 160314
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 PM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON WEAKENS FURTHER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 129.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND 1140
MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 MPH. PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND NORTH BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 MPH. PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES
FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 190
MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...22.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
129.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 7 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TYPHOON PRAPIROON.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160255
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 113.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.8W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 113.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160255
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL WEAKENS TO CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...
...ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 113.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 160255
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL WEAKENS TO CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH...
...ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 113.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO EL POCITO. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA
ABREOJOS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA
* EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE...
* WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.6 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL SHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST...BUT PAUL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE. PAUL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS. NEAR THE COAST...THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160253
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL SE DIRIGE AL NORTE...
...SE ESPERA QUE ESTE CERCA DE BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O
NOCHE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...25.1 NORTE 65.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 500 MI...805 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 10 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H PRESION
MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.5 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION
SE ESPERA EL MARTES Y MARTES EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA CERCA O AL ESTE DE
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES O MARTES EN LA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO MINIMO
ES POSIBLE EL MARTES...CON UNA TENDENCIA A DEBILITARSE EL MIERCOLES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADOS EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O EN LA NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160253
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL SE DIRIGE AL NORTE...
...SE ESPERA QUE ESTE CERCA DE BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O
NOCHE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...25.1 NORTE 65.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 500 MI...805 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 10 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H PRESION
MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 11:00 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN RAFAEL ESTABA
LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 25.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 65.5 OESTE.
RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H. UN GIRO
HACIA EL NORESTE CON AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION
SE ESPERA EL MARTES Y MARTES EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PASARA CERCA O AL ESTE DE
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES O MARTES EN LA NOCHE.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA
DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS SAFFIR-SIMPSON. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO MINIMO
ES POSIBLE EL MARTES...CON UNA TENDENCIA A DEBILITARSE EL MIERCOLES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE
LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADOS EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O EN LA NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH
000
WTNT22 KNHC 160244
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 65.5W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 65.5W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 65.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.6N 64.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.4N 59.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.2N 54.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 48.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 65.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 160244
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL HEADED NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160005
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL SE FORTALECE MAS MIENTRAS SE DIRIGE AL NORTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...24.5 NORTE 65.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 545 MI...880 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H PRESION
MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.7 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/H. UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA ESTA NOCHE. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON
AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA EL MARTES
Y MARTES EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL PERMANECERA CERCA O AL ESTE DE BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES O
MARTES EN LA NOCHE.
REPORTES DE AVIONES DE LA NOAA Y DEL CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA
AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A
CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN
HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ANTICIPA MUCHO FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ESTA
NOCHE NI MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA POR DATOS DEL AVION CAZA
HURACANES ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
CON CANTIDADES TOTALES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS POSIBLES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE
LLUVIA TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADOS EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O EN LA NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH/BERG
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 160005
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
HURACAN RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL SE FORTALECE MAS MIENTRAS SE DIRIGE AL NORTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...24.5 NORTE 65.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 545 MI...880 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 360 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H PRESION
MINIMA CENTRAL...974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS
PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.7 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/H. UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN SU VELOCIDAD DE
TRASLACION SE ESPERA ESTA NOCHE. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON
AUMENTO ADICIONAL EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA EL MARTES
Y MARTES EN LA NOCHE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL PERMANECERA CERCA O AL ESTE DE BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES O
MARTES EN LA NOCHE.
REPORTES DE AVIONES DE LA NOAA Y DEL CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA
AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A
CERCA DE 85 MPH...140 KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. RAFAEL ES UN
HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA DE VIENTOS HURACANADOS
SAFFIR-SIMPSON. NO SE ANTICIPA MUCHO FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL ESTA
NOCHE NI MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 45 MILLAS...75
KM DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS DE FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE
EXTIENDEN HASTA 205 MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA POR DATOS DEL AVION CAZA
HURACANES ES DE 974 MILIBARES...28.76 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
CON CANTIDADES TOTALES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS POSIBLES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE
LLUVIA TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON ESPERADOS EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O EN LA NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS Y BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ESTE DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADORES PASCH/BERG
000
WTNT32 KNHC 152353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
000
WTNT32 KNHC 152353
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 152335
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 113.8W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAT TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 152157
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND
1110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH. PRAPIROON
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 80 MPH AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...22.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
130.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 152157
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON WEAKENS SLIGHTLY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA AND
1110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH. PRAPIROON
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY CURVE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 80 MPH AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...22.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
130.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 152115
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL GIRA HACIA EL NORTE...
...AVIONES DE LA NOAA Y DE LA FUERZA AEREA DE ESTADOS UNIDOS EN RUTA
HACIA LA TORMENTA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...24.1 NORTE 65.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 570 MI...915 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 350 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H PRESION
MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 24.1 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17
KM/H. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN SU
MOVIMIENTO DE TRASLACION PARA EL MARTES Y MARTES DE LA NOCHE. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA CERCA O
AL ESTE DE LAS BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES O MARTES EN LA NOCHE.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE ESPERA Y SE
PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN ESTA NOCHE O EL
MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 205
MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARES...29.09
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
CON CANTIDADES TOTALES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS POSIBLES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE
LLUVIA TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O EN LA NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS...BERMUDA QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE Y PORCIONES DE LA
COSTA ES DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 152104
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA PASSING IWO TO ISLAND TO THE NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.9
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
540 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
580 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
610 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
765 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
850 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
40 MILES NORTHWEST OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
CURVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...25.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
140.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 152104
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA PASSING IWO TO ISLAND TO THE NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 140.9
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
540 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
580 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
610 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
765 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
850 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
40 MILES NORTHWEST OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
CURVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...25.2 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
140.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE ON TROPICAL STORM MARIA.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTNT32 KNHC 152052
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL TURNS NORTHWARD...
...NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 152050
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 65.8W
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.1N 65.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 140SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 48.0N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 65.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 152044
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 114.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAT TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 77
MPH...124 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
THE SAME AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990.1 MB...29.24 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 152044
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 114.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAT TO APPROACH THE WEST
COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY...AND BE NEAR OR
OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM FORCE-WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90
MILES...150 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 53 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 77
MPH...124 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
THE SAME AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990.1 MB...29.24 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA
PENINSULA BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 152043
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 152043
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO EL POCITO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.4W
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 151825
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL GIRE HACIA EL NORTE PRONTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.5 NORTE 65.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 610 MI...985 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9
MPH...15 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA PARA ESTA NOCHE. SE
ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN SU MOVIMIENTO DE
TRASLACION PARA EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL
CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HOY...SE
ACERCARA A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE ESPERA Y SE
PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY O
ESTA NOCHE.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 205
MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL ESTIMADA ES DE 985 MILIBARES...29.09
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE
CON CANTIDADES TOTALES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 12 PULGADAS POSIBLES.
ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS
DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE
LLUVIA TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O EN LA NOCHE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL CONTINUARAN AFECTANDO LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE LAS MAREJADAS AFECTEN LAS BERMUDAS
COMENZANDO TARDE HOY Y CONTINUARA DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS. ESTAS
MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151752
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151752
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151752
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NEARING CLARION ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...84 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151752
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1100 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL HEADING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...NEARING CLARION ISLAND...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.4W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEST IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
WEST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
TODAY...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING ON TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 MPH...60 KM/H...WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...84 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 151520
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAS TARDE EL DIA
DE HOY...
...UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA
BERMUDA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.0 NORTE 65.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 645 MI...1040 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA REEMPLAZADO LA VIGILANCIA
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL POR UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA
BERMUDA.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO
ADVERTENCIA...DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA ...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.7 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9
MPH...15 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA PARA ESTA TARDE O
NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN SU
MOVIMIENTO DE TRASLACION PARA EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...PARA HOY EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL ESTE
DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y TARDE EL MARTES SE ACERCARA A BERMUDA.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE ESPERA Y SE
PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL PASE HACER UN HURACAN MAS EN LA TARDE O ESTA
NOCHE.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 205
MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA
HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y
SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE
LLUVIA TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE LAS MAREJADAS AFECTEN LAS BERMUDAS MAS
TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY Y QUE CONTINUEN DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...2 PM AST
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 151520
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL SE CONVIERTA EN UN HURACAN MAS TARDE EL DIA
DE HOY...
...UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO EMITIDA PARA
BERMUDA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...23.0 NORTE 65.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 645 MI...1040 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA DE BERMUDA HA REEMPLAZADO LA VIGILANCIA
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL POR UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA
BERMUDA.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA ADVERTENCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES
DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO
ADVERTENCIA...DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA DE SU AREA ...FAVOR ESTE ATENTO A LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE
METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 23.0 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.7 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9
MPH...15 KM/H. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA PARA ESTA TARDE O
NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN SU
MOVIMIENTO DE TRASLACION PARA EL MARTES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...PARA HOY EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL ESTE
DE LAS BAHAMAS...Y TARDE EL MARTES SE ACERCARA A BERMUDA.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE ESPERA Y SE
PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL PASE HACER UN HURACAN MAS EN LA TARDE O ESTA
NOCHE.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 205
MILLAS...335 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA
HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES DE LLUVIA
ADICIONALES DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE Y
SON POSIBLES ACUMULACIONES AISLADAS TOTALES DE 12 PULGADAS. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES DE
LLUVIA TOTALES DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE BERMUDA.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE LAS MAREJADAS AFECTEN LAS BERMUDAS MAS
TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY Y QUE CONTINUEN DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...2 PM AST
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 151500
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1095 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH VERY
LITTLE REAL MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...22.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 151500
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTH...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.0
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
440 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
480 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
505 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
650 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
730 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...23.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 151500
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.0 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1095 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS QUASI-STATIONARY WITH VERY
LITTLE REAL MOVEMENT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...22.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 151500
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 AM CHST TUE OCT 16 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA QUICKLY MOVING TO THE NORTH...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.0
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
440 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
480 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
505 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
650 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
730 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
100 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTH WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
EXPECTED TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...23.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.0 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 21 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151451
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.8W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 114.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151451
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.8W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 114.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151451
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 114.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING AFTER THAT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH...59 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNEDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151451
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 114.7W
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLLOWED BY STEADY
WEAKENING AFTER THAT.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED WIND GUSTS TO 37 MPH...59 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNEDAY.
RAINFALL...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTH AND
WEST COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151450
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151450
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 151450
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 210SE 150SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 64.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.4N 59.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 180SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 47.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 65.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 151450
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 210SE 150SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 64.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.4N 59.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 180SW 160NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 47.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 65.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 151246
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL ESTA CERCA DE ALCANZAR FUERZA HURACANADA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.5 NORTE 65.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 290 MI...465 KM AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 680 MI...1090 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.5 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9
MPH...15 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA
MANANA...SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE. EN
LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN
AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE ACERCARSE A
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
DATOS DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICARON QUE
RAFAEL ESTA CERCA DE TENER FUERZA HURACANADA...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...111KM/H...CON RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS
MAS RAPIDAS. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y SE ESPERA QUE
RAFAEL PASE A SER UN HURACAN DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA
HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE LAS MAREJADAS AFECTEN LAS BERMUDAS MAS
TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY Y QUE CONTINUEN DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 151246
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL ESTA CERCA DE ALCANZAR FUERZA HURACANADA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.5 NORTE 65.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 290 MI...465 KM AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 680 MI...1090 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 9 MPH...15 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.5 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9
MPH...15 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA
MANANA...SEGUIDO POR UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE. EN
LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN
AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE ACERCARSE A
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
DATOS DEL AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICARON QUE
RAFAEL ESTA CERCA DE TENER FUERZA HURACANADA...Y LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS
SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...111KM/H...CON RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS
MAS RAPIDAS. SE PRONOSTICA UN FORTALECIMIENTO...Y SE ESPERA QUE
RAFAEL PASE A SER UN HURACAN DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY.
LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA ULTIMA PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL REPORTADA POR EL AVION CAZA
HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 985 MILIBARES...29.09 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. TAMBIEN SE ESPERA QUE LAS MAREJADAS AFECTEN LAS BERMUDAS MAS
TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY Y QUE CONTINUEN DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUEDEN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 151151
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH....AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151149
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151149
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151149
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 151149
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
500 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 114.8W
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING
WITH SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150901 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL SEA HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.5 NORTE 65.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 290 MI...465 KM AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 680 MI...1090 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARES...29.18 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.3 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA
MANANA Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE ACERCARSE A
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARES...29.18
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150901 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL SEA HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.5 NORTE 65.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 290 MI...465 KM AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 680 MI...1090 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARES...29.18 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.3 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA
MANANA Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE ACERCARSE A
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARES...29.18
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150859
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL SEA HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.5 NORTE 65.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 290 MI...465 KM AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 680 MI...1090 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARES...29.18 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.3 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA
MANAAN Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE ACERCARSE A
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARES...29.18
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150859
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 11
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL SEA HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.5 NORTE 65.3 OESTE
CERCA DE 290 MI...465 KM AL NORTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 680 MI...1090 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARES...29.18 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.5 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.3 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE ESTA
MANAAN Y SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE ACERCARSE A
BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARES...29.18
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150852
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS NEARLY STATIONARY...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1080 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS. PRAPIROON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 80 MPH AND LITTLE CHANGE
IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO ABOUT 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...22.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150852
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.2
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
350 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
385 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
405 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
535 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
610 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
220 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90
MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...21.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150852
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.2
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
350 MILES NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN
385 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
405 MILES NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
535 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
610 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
220 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 MPH AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90
MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...21.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150850
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL HEADING
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150850
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL HEADING
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150850
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL HEADING
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150850
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150850
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012
...PAUL BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 114.9W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST. PAUL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THAT GENERAL HEADING
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL COULD BE NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
TODAY. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...EAST
OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY LATE TUESDAY.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150844
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 160SE 100SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.0W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150844
TCMEP1
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 160SE 100SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.0W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
000
WTNT22 KNHC 150843
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.1W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 65.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT22 KNHC 150843
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.1W
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 65.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150557
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CERCA DE SER HURACAN...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.1 NORTE 65.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 260 MI...420 KM AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 705 MI...1140 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARES...29.18 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.1 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE.
EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA
BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE
ACERCARSE A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO. DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...UNA BOYA DE
NOAA LOCALIZADA AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE RAFAEL REPORTO VIENTOS
SOSTENIDOS DE 52 MPH...83 KM/H...Y UNA RAFAGA DE 66 MPH...106 KM/H.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARES...29.18
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORT DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1
A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA
Y VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150557
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 10A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST LUNES 15 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CERCA DE SER HURACAN...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...22.1 NORTE 65.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 260 MI...420 KM AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 705 MI...1140 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...988 MILIBARES...29.18 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 22.1 NORTE...LONGITUD
65.1 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA TARDE O NOCHE.
EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA
BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS DURANTE EL DIA DE HOY...Y PUEDE
ACERCARSE A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 70 MPH...110 KM/H...CON
RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN MAS TARDE HOY.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO. DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...UNA BOYA DE
NOAA LOCALIZADA AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE RAFAEL REPORTO VIENTOS
SOSTENIDOS DE 52 MPH...83 KM/H...Y UNA RAFAGA DE 66 MPH...106 KM/H.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 988 MILIBARES...29.18
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DEL NORT DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS
PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE
PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1
A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA
Y VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150549
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 65.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...
83 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 66 MPH/106 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150549
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 65.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...
83 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 66 MPH/106 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150549
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 65.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...
83 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 66 MPH/106 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150549
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012
...RAFAEL JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 65.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 705 MI...1140 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNON OR EVENING. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...A NOAA BUOY LOCATED
SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 52 MPH...
83 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 66 MPH/106 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150340
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTENSIFYING...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.9
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
425 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
495 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
325 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. ONLY A SLIGHT
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...20.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 150340
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTENSIFYING...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.9
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
425 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
495 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
325 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH. ONLY A SLIGHT
FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...20.1 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.9 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.
$$
MIDDLEBROOKE
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150339
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON WOBBLES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.2 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1090 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 MPH. PRAPIROON
IS EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 MPH. PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...22.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 150339
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 PM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON WOBBLES TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.2 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1090 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 MPH. PRAPIROON
IS EXPECTED TO CURVE BACK TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 85 MPH. PRAPIROON IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...22.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 3 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 150301
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL CERCA DE SER HURACAN...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.6 NORTE 64.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 235 MI...380 KM AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 740 MI...1190 KM AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...989 MILIBARES...29.21 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.6 NORTE...LONGITUD
64.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE EL LUNES. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HASTA EL LUNES EN LA NOCHE...Y PODRIA ACERCARSE
A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 70 MPH...110
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA...Y RAFAEL PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 989 MILIBARES...29.21 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SON POSIBLES EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE O AL ANOCHECER.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA QUE AFECTEN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 AM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150243
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 115.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PAUL.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH A NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL SHOULD BE OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND PAUL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEN CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN
BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 150243
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 115.3W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PAUL.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.3 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH A NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...PAUL SHOULD BE OVER WATER TO THE WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND PAUL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD THEN CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN
BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150243
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PAUL.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.3W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.6N 114.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 114.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150243
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF PAUL.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 115.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 115.3W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.2N 115.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.6N 114.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 114.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 27.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.5N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 115.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BERG
000
WTNT22 KNHC 150242
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 64.7W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 64.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150242
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT22 KNHC 150242
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 64.7W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 64.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 150242
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 142347
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL SE FORTALECE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.4 NORTE 64.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 225 MILLAS...365 KILOMETROS AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 760 MILLAS...1220 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...991 MILIBARES...29.26 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD
64.5 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE O
TEMPRANO EL LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HASTA EL LUNES EN LA
NOCHE...Y PODRIA ACERCARSE A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 65 MPH...100
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 991 MILIBARES...29.26 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS HASTA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 142347
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 9A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL SE FORTALECE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...21.4 NORTE 64.5 OESTE
CERCA DE 225 MILLAS...365 KILOMETROS AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 760 MILLAS...1220 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 345 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...991 MILIBARES...29.26 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 21.4 NORTE...LONGITUD
64.5 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE TARDE ESTA NOCHE O
TEMPRANO EL LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE
RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HASTA EL LUNES EN LA
NOCHE...Y PODRIA ACERCARSE A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
REPORTES DE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 65 MPH...100
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO ADICIONAL SE
PRONOSTICA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PODRIA
CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE
LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 991 MILIBARES...29.26 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS HASTA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA EL MARTES EN LA TARDE.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 142334
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT32 KNHC 142334
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 142102
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA STILL MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
260 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
275 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
380 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
435 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
400 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
MARIA IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...19.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.
$$
MCELROY
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 142102
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL STORM MARIA STILL MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 141.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
260 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
275 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGAN
290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
380 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
435 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
400 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.
MARIA IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TURNING NORTHWARD WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 MPH. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...19.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
141.7 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.
$$
MCELROY
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 142102
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON STILL TRUDGING NORTHEASTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1030 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1100 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU AND
1095 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...23.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.
$$
MCELROY
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 142102
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON STILL TRUDGING NORTHEASTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.4 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
325 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1030 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1100 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU AND
1095 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...23.0 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS AFTERNOON AT 200 PM.
$$
MCELROY
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 142100
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...BANDAS DE LLUVIA DE RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE
DE SOTAVENTO DURANTE LA NOCHE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.7 NORTE 64.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 185 MILLAS...295 KILOMETROS AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 800 MILLAS...1290 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD
64.7 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA
ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE EL LUNES. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HASTA EL LUNES EN LA NOCHE...Y PODRIA ACERCARSE
A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN LUNES
EN LA NOCHE.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS HASTA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA LA MANANA DEL MARTES.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 142100
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 9
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...BANDAS DE LLUVIA DE RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE
DE SOTAVENTO DURANTE LA NOCHE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.7 NORTE 64.7 OESTE
CERCA DE 185 MILLAS...295 KILOMETROS AL NOR NORESTE DE SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO
CERCA DE 800 MILLAS...1290 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NOR NOROESTE O 330 GRADOS A 10 MPH...17 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 20.7 NORTE...LONGITUD
64.7 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10
MPH...17 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA
ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE EL LUNES. EN LA
TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL PERMANECERA BIEN AL
ESTE DE LAS BAHAMAS HASTA EL LUNES EN LA NOCHE...Y PODRIA ACERCARSE
A BERMUDA TARDE EL MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN LUNES
EN LA NOCHE.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 12
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS HASTA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA LA MANANA DEL MARTES.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SE ESPERA AFECTEN LAS PLAYAS
DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS DIAS.
ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA Y
CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS DE SU
OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...800 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 142041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAIN BANDS FROM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 142041
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAIN BANDS FROM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 142040
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 64.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 64.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.4W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 64.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 64.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 142040
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 64.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 64.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.4W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 64.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 64.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 142033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 142033
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 115.2W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION ON MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON
MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 142032
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.1W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 142032
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 115.1W
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N 115.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.5N 115.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 141803 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTERIORES DE RAFAEL AUN ESTA PRODUCIENDO
FUERTES LLUVIASS OBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.3 NORTE 64.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 165 MILLAS...265 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO
CERCA DE 835 MILLAS...1340 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 20.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.4 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL
NORTE EL LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO HOY. SE PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL SE ACERCARA A BERMUDA EL
MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN TARDE
EN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA BOYA DEL
NOAA 41043...LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 75 MILLAS NOROESTE DEL CENTRO...
RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 40 MPH...65 KM/H...CON
UNA RAFAGA HASTA 47 MPH...75 KM/H.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS HASTA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA LA MANANA DEL MARTES.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SON ANTICIPADAS EN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 141803 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 8A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 PM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...LAS BANDAS DE LLUVIA EXTERIORES DE RAFAEL AUN ESTA PRODUCIENDO
FUERTES LLUVIASS OBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.3 NORTE 64.4 OESTE
CERCA DE 165 MILLAS...265 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO
CERCA DE 835 MILLAS...1340 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
NINGUNO
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 20.3 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.4 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HASTA ESTA NOCHE. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL
NORTE EL LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO HOY. SE PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL SE ACERCARA A BERMUDA EL
MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN TARDE
EN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO. LA BOYA DEL
NOAA 41043...LOCALIZADA CERCA DE 75 MILLAS NOROESTE DEL CENTRO...
RECIENTEMENTE REPORTO UN VIENTO SOSTENIDO DE 40 MPH...65 KM/H...CON
UNA RAFAGA HASTA 47 MPH...75 KM/H.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 996 MILIBARES...29.41 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...VIENTOS HASTA FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA LA MANANA DEL MARTES.
RESACA...MAREJADAS GENERADAS POR RAFAEL SON ANTICIPADAS EN LAS
PLAYAS DE LAS BAHAMAS QUE DAN HACIA EL ESTE DURANTE LOS PROXIMOS
DIAS. ESTAS MAREJADAS PUDIERAN CAUSAR CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE
RESACA Y CORRIENTES SUBMARINAS. FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS
DE SU OFICINA DE METEOROLOGIA LOCAL.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141746
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...OUTER BANDS OF RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043...
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO
47 MPH...75 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141746
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...OUTER BANDS OF RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043...
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO
47 MPH...75 KM/H.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 141513 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL AUN ESTA PRODUCIENDO FUERTES LLUVIAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS
EN LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
...SE EMITE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.0 NORTE 64.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...275 KILOMETROS AL NOROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO
CERCA DE 850 MILLAS...1370 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...997 MILIBARES...29.44 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BERMUDA EMITE UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.1 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO HOY. SE PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL SE ACERCARA A BERMUDA EL
MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN TARDE
EN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 997 MILIBARES...29.44 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO HASTA TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA LA MANANA DEL MARTES.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 141513 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
1100 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL AUN ESTA PRODUCIENDO FUERTES LLUVIAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS
EN LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
...SE EMITE UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA...
RESUMEN DE LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...20.0 NORTE 64.1 OESTE
CERCA DE 170 MILLAS...275 KILOMETROS AL NOROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO
CERCA DE 850 MILLAS...1370 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 335 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...997 MILIBARES...29.44 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL SERVICIO METEOROLOGICO DE BERMUDA EMITE UNA VIGILANCIA DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BERMUDA.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EFECTO PARA...
* BERMUDA.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...
GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA ...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS
PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO
NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 20.0 NORTE...LONGITUD 64.1 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO HOY. SE PRONOSTICA QUE RAFAEL SE ACERCARA A BERMUDA EL
MARTES.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN TARDE
EN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 997 MILIBARES...29.44 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES. ESTAS LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR
INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE TIERRA QUE PONEN EN
PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3
PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN LAS ISLAS VIRGENES CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO HASTA TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN
BERMUDA PARA LA MANANA DEL MARTES.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA...200 PM AST.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 PM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141501
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
CORRECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN HAZARD SECTION
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141501
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
CORRECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN HAZARD SECTION
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 02
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W NAMED MARIA...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
240 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
245 MILES WEST OF PAGAN
255 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN
325 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
380 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
450 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MARIA IS FORECASTED TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...18.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1025 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1090 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU AND
1090 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...22.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 02
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W NAMED MARIA...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
240 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
245 MILES WEST OF PAGAN
255 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN
325 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
380 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
450 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MARIA IS FORECASTED TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...18.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1025 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1090 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU AND
1090 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...22.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 02
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W NAMED MARIA...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
240 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
245 MILES WEST OF PAGAN
255 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN
325 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
380 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
450 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MARIA IS FORECASTED TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...18.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 131.3 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1025 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1090 MILES NORTH OF KOROR PALAU AND
1090 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...22.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
131.3 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.
$$
AYDLETT
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141455
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 141449
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 64.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 64.0W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 64.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141437
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL STARTS THE NORTHWARD TURN...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 115.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141437
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141437
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL STARTS THE NORTHWARD TURN...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 115.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141437
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 141437
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL STARTS THE NORTHWARD TURN...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 115.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY PAUL ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE
SOUTH AND CENTRAL COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141437
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.9W
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 141220 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL AUN ESTA PRODUCIENDO FUERTES LLUVIAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS
EN LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...19.5 NORTE 63.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS AL NORTE NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 890 MILLAS...1435 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE ANTIGUA.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
NINGUNO
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL. UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUD MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL
LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO HASTA TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO HOY.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
ROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 141220 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 7A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
800 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...RAFAEL AUN ESTA PRODUCIENDO FUERTES LLUVIAS Y RAFAGAS DE VIENTOS
EN LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...19.5 NORTE 63.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS AL NORTE NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 890 MILLAS...1435 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 12 MPH...19 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL GOBIERNO DE ANTIGUA HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL PARA LA ISLA DE ANTIGUA.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
NINGUNO
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL. UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUD MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 19.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA DURANTE
LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN HURACAN EL
LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...RAFAGAS DE VIENTO HASTA TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES
A TRAVES DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO HOY.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
ROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141150
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT32 KNHC 141150
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANGUILLA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
NONE.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA
LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 140925 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
DESCONTINUADOS...
...MAL TIEMPO CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS AFECTARAN
GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...19.4 NORTE 63.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS AL NORTE NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 895 MILLAS...1440 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO PARA LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS...ISLAS VIRGENES
BRITANICAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
MAARTIN...Y ST. MARTIN
LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA PARA PUERTO
RICO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* ANGUILLA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS.
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL. UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUD MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN
HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN QUE
GRADUALMENTE DISMINUYAN A TRAVES DE A TRAVES DEL ANGUILLA HASTA
TARDE ESTA MANANA.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...800 AM AST.
ROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 140925 CCA
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
DESCONTINUADOS...
...MAL TIEMPO CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS AFECTARAN
GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...19.4 NORTE 63.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS AL NORTE NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 895 MILLAS...1440 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO PARA LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS...ISLAS VIRGENES
BRITANICAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
MAARTIN...Y ST. MARTIN
LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA PARA PUERTO
RICO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* ANGUILLA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS.
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL. UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUD MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN
HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN QUE
GRADUALMENTE DISMINUYAN A TRAVES DE A TRAVES DEL ANGUILLA HASTA
TARDE ESTA MANANA.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...800 AM AST.
ROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140912
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 PM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON MOVING FARTHER NORTHWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1020 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1075 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
1110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL
DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...22.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
130.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140912
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
800 PM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012
...TYPHOON PRAPIROON MOVING FARTHER NORTHWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1020 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1075 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
1110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL
DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...22.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
130.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 3 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 140910
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
500 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...AVISOS DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL
DESCONTINUADOS...
...MAL TIEMPO CON LLUVIAS FUERTES Y VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS AFECTARAN
GRAN PARTE DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...
RESUMEN DE LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...19.4 NORTE 63.8 OESTE
CERCA DE 100 MILLAS...160 KILOMETROS AL NORTE NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 895 MILLAS...1440 KILOMETROS AL SUR DE BERMUDA
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE NOROESTE O 340 GRADOS A 13 MPH...20 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO PARA LAS ISLAS
VIRGENES AMERICANAS...ISLAS VIRGENES
BRITANICAS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...BARBUDA...ST.
KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST.
MAARTIN...Y ST. MARTIN
LA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADA PARA PUERTO
RICO.
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* ANGUILLA
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS.
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL. UNA
VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDE SER REQUERIDA PARA BERMUD MAS
TARDE ESTA NOCHE.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA POR EL RADAR DOPPLER DE NOAA CERCA DE LA
LATITUD 19.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.8 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL
NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KM/H Y SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE
ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERA HOY. UN GIRO HACIA EL NORTE SE ESPERA EL
LUNES. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL
CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE
SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN
HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE Y ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN QUE
GRADUALMENTE DISMINUYAN A TRAVES DE A TRAVES DEL ANGUILLA HASTA
TARDE ESTA MANANA.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...800 AM AST.
ROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...1100 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 140857
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 01
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 PM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W FORMS 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.1 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
255 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
320 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
495 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 7 MPH AND WILL
TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...17.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
143.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTPQ32 PGUM 140857
TCPPQ2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 01
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
800 PM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W FORMS 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 700 PM CHST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.1 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
255 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
320 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
495 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO...JAPAN.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 7 MPH AND WILL
TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM POSITION...17.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
143.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WESTWARD AT 7 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
$$
SIMPSON
000
WTNT32 KNHC 140853
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
ANGUILLA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 140853
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
ANGUILLA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140851
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 20SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.2W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140851
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 20SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.2W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 140851
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL SLOWING DOWN...
...FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 140851
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PAUL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012
200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012
...PAUL SLOWING DOWN...
...FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 114.5W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. PAUL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY MONDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
PAUL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
000
WTNT22 KNHC 140850
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL....AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 63.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT22 KNHC 140850
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL....AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.6W
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 63.8W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 140603
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL SE MUEVE AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...
...LINEAS DE TRONADAS Y FUERTES LLUVIAS TODAVIA AFECTANDO GRAN PARTE
DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...18.7 NORTE 63.6 OESTE
CERCA DE 50 MILLAS...80 KILOMETROS AL NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 105 MILLAS...170 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DE SANTA CRUZ
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 355 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO PARA
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...Y MARIE GALANTE
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* CULEBRA Y VIEQUES
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...Y MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...Y ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.7 NORTE...LONGITUD
63.6 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22
KM/H. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA MANANA...SEGUIDO
POR UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EN LA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS
ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN
HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN QUE
GRADUALMENTE DISMINUYAN A TRAVES DEL AREA BAJO AVISO HASTA ESTA
TARDE. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES SOBRE PUERTO
RICO ESTA MANANA.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTCA42 TJSJ 140603
TCPSP2
BOLETIN
TORMENTA TROPICAL RAFAEL ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 6A
NWS CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL AL172012
TRADUCCION EMITIDA POR SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA SAN JUAN PR
200 AM AST DOMINGO 14 OCTUBRE DE 2012
...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL SE MUEVE AL NORTE DE LAS ISLAS VIRGENES...
...LINEAS DE TRONADAS Y FUERTES LLUVIAS TODAVIA AFECTANDO GRAN PARTE
DE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO DEL NORTE...
RESUMEN DE LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMACION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCALIZACION...18.7 NORTE 63.6 OESTE
CERCA DE 50 MILLAS...80 KILOMETROS AL NOROESTE DE SAN MARTIN
CERCA DE 105 MILLAS...170 KILOMETROS AL NORESTE DE SANTA CRUZ
VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
MOVIMIENTO ACTUAL...NORTE O 355 GRADOS A 14 MPH...22 KM/H
PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1003 MILIBARES...29.62 PULGADAS
VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS
--------------------
CAMBIOS CON ESTA ADVERTENCIA...
EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL HA SIDO DESCONTINUADO PARA
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...Y MARIE GALANTE
RESUMEN DE LAS VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS EN EFECTO...
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* CULEBRA Y VIEQUES
* ISLAS VIRGENES AMERICANAS
* ISLAS VIRGENES BRITANICAS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...Y MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...Y ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA...
* PUERTO RICO
UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA
TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO...EN ESTE CASO DENTRO
DE LAS PROXIMAS 12 A 24 HORAS.
UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE
TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA.
INTERESES EN BERMUDA DEBEN MONITOREAR EL PROGRESO DE RAFAEL.
PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA EN LOS ESTADOS
UNIDOS...FAVOR MONITOREAR LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA
LOCAL DE PRONOSTICOS DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA.
DISCUSION Y PERSPECTIVAS PARA LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS
---------------------------------------------------
A LAS 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL
RAFAEL ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 18.7 NORTE...LONGITUD
63.6 OESTE. RAFAEL SE MUEVE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH...22
KM/H. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE ESTA MANANA...SEGUIDO
POR UN GIRO HACIA EL NOR NOROESTE EN LA TARDE. EN LA TRAYECTORIA
PRONOSTICADA...EL CENTRO DE RAFAEL CONTINUARA ALEJANDOSE DE LAS
ISLAS VIRGENES Y LAS ISLAS DEL NORTE DE SOTAVENTO.
LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS PERMANECEN CERCA DE 50 MPH...85
KM/H...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO SE PRONOSTICA
DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 48 HORAS...Y RAFAEL PUEDE CONVERTIRSE EN
HURACAN EL LUNES.
VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 175
MILLAS...280 KM MAYORMENTE AL ESTE DEL CENTRO.
LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA REPORTADA ES DE 1003 MILIBARES...29.62
PULGADAS.
PELIGROS AFECTANDO TIERRA
-------------------------
LLUVIA...SE ESPERA QUE RAFAEL PRODUZCA CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA
DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS...CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10
PULGADAS...SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. ESTAS
LLUVIAS PUEDEN CAUSAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTOS DE
TIERRA QUE PONEN EN PELIGRO LA VIDA...ESPECIALMENTE EN TERRENO
MONTANOSO. DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS DE LLUVIAS SE ESPERAN EN CULEBRA Y
VIEQUES.
VIENTO...CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN QUE
GRADUALMENTE DISMINUYAN A TRAVES DEL AREA BAJO AVISO HASTA ESTA
TARDE. CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES SOBRE PUERTO
RICO ESTA MANANA.
RESACA...CONDICIONES PELIGROSAS DE RESACA SON POSIBLES EN LAS
ANTILLAS MENORES Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES HASTA HOY.
MAREJADA CICLONICA...UNA MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 1 A 2 PIES SOBRE LOS
NIVELES NORMALES ES POSIBLE EN AREAS BAJO AVISO.
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA
-------------------
PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA...500 AM AST.
$$
PRONOSTICADOR STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 140548
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTNT32 KNHC 140548
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012
...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...
...SQUALLS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 63.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH THIS MORNING.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140348
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 PM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012
...PRAPIROON MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1015 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1065 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
1110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTH AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL DRIFT TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...22.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
130.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140348
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP222012
200 PM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012
...PRAPIROON MOVING NORTH AND WEAKENING...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON PRAPIROON (22W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 130.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT
335 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA
1015 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP
1065 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR PALAU AND
1110 MILES NORTHWEST OF GUAM.
TYPHOON PRAPIROON IS MOVING NORTH AT 3 MPH. A GRADUAL DRIFT TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 MPH. LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...22.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
130.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTH AT 3 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE THIS EVENING AT 800 PM.
$$
KLEESCHULTE
| 
