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Abstract
The Reliability of the State Personal Income Estimates
by Robert L. Brown, Bruce T. Grimm, and Marian B. Sacks
A new study by BEA finds that the quarterly estimates of state personal
income were reliable indicators in the period 1991-2001. That is, they
were generally successful in indicating whether a state’s economy
was expanding or contracting, whether a state’s economy was accelerating
or decelerating, and whether a state’s economy was growing at rates
that were above, below, or near long-term trend. As a result, the estimates
presented a consistent picture of a state’s economic growth. The
paper is similar to an article in the December issue of the Survey of
Current Business, but contains an expanded discussion of the sources and
methods used by BEA to prepare the estimates, with particular emphasis
on wages and salaries. Also, analysis in a new appendix finds that for
most states there is a tendency to revise estimates of personal income
toward longer-term trend growth rates and toward the national growth rate.
Last changed:
January 16, 2004
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