Energy & Financial Markets
What Drives Crude Oil Prices?
An analysis of 7 factors that influence oil markets, with chart data updated monthly and quarterly
Overview
As part of its Energy and Financial Markets Initiative, EIA is assessing the various factors that may influence oil prices — physical market factors as well as those related to trading and financial markets. This website describes 7 key factors that could influence oil markets. The analysis explores possible linkages between each factor and oil prices, and includes regularly-updated graphs that depict aspects of those relationships.
EIA's traditional coverage of physical fundamentals such as energy consumption, production, inventories, spare production capacity, and geopolitical risks continues to be essential. EIA is also assessing other influences, such as futures market trading activity, commodity investment, exchange rates, and equity markets, as it seeks to fully assess energy price movements.
This analysis was published on June 16, 2011 and covers the period from 2000 forward. Several charts include projections through 2012 from EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook. Charts are updated with new data on a monthly, quarterly, and annual basis according to the schedule below. The analysis will be updated as needed. Feedback is welcome and can be submitted via the feedback form at the bottom of every page on this site.
Chart Update Schedule |
Update Frequency |
Last Update |
|---|---|---|
| Supply: Non-OPEC | ||
| Production & WTI crude prices | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| Projected supply, annual average | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| Supply: OPEC | ||
| Changes in production targets & WTI crude prices | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Spare production capacity & WTI crude prices | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| Changes in production capacity & GDP, price of WTI crude | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| Balance | ||
| OECD inventories & WTI futures spread | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Spot Prices | ||
| World crude oil prices | Monthly | 8/31/2012 |
| U.S. retail gasoline price, refiner acquisition cost of crude oil | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| Crude price reaction to events | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Financial Markets | ||
| Average daily open interest in crude oil futures | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Futures positions by producers, merchants, processors, & end users | Monthly | 8/31/2012 |
| Futures positions by money managers | Monthly | 8/31/2012 |
| Correlations between daily prices changes of crude & other commodities | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
Commodity index assets under management & Dow Jones UBS price index |
Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Composition of the Dow Jones UBS commodity index | Annual | 2012 |
| Correlations between daily returns on crude oil & financial investments | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Demand: Non-OECD | ||
| Consumption & GDP | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| GDP growth in Asia | Quarterly | 6/29/2012 |
| Demand: OECD | ||
| Crude oil consumption & WTI crude oil price | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
| World oil consumption, world GDP & WTI crude oil prices | Monthly | 9/11/2012 |
Feedback
We welcome your feedback and insights concerning this report.
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Contact
Bruce Bawks
Office of Energy Markets
and Financial Analysis
Bruce.bawks@eia.gov