‹ Analysis & Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Release Date: June 25, 2012 | Next Early Release Date: January 23, 2013 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2012)
NEMS overview and brief description of cases
| Reference | Baseline economic growth (2.5 percent per year from 2010 through 2035), oil price, and technology assumptions. Complete projection tables in Appendix A. Light, sweet crude oil prices rise to about $145 per barrel (2010 dollars) in 2035. Assumes RFS target to be met as soon as possible. |
| Low Economic Growth | Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent from 2010 to 2035. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix B.. |
| High Economic Growth | Real GDP grows at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent from 2010 to 2035. Other energy market assumptions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix B. |
| Low Oil Price | Low prices result from a combination of low demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels in the non-OECD nations and higher global supply. Lower demand is measured by lower economic growth relative to the Reference case. In this case, GDP growth in the non-OECD is reduced by 1.5 percentage points in each projection year relative to Reference case assumptions, beginning in 2015. On the supply side, OPEC increases its market share to 46 percent, and the costs of other liquids production technologies are lower than in the Reference case. Light, sweet crude oil prices fall to $62 per barrel in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix C. |
| High Oil Price | High prices result from a combination of higher demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels in the non-OECD nations and lower global supply. Higher demand is measured by higher economic growth relative to the Reference case. In this case, GDP growth rates for China and India are raised by 1.0 percentage point relative to the Reference case in 2012 and decline to 0.3 percentage point above the Reference case in 2035. GDP growth rates for other non-OECD regions average about 0.5 percentage point above the Reference case. OPEC market share remains at about 40 percent throughout the projection, and non-OPEC petroleum production expands more slowly in the short to middle term relative to the Reference case. Light, sweet crude oil prices rise to $200 per barrel (2010 dollars) in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix C. |
| No sunset | Begins with the Reference case and assumes extension of all existing energy policies and legislation that contain sunset provisions, except those requiring additional funding (e.g., loan guarantee programs) and those that involve extensive regulatory analysis, such as CAFE improvements and periodic updates of efficiency standards. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Extended Policies | Begins with the No Sunset case but excludes extension of tax credits for
blenders and for other biofuels that were included in the No Sunset case.
Assumes an increase in the capacity limitations on the ITC and extension of the program. The case includes additional rounds of efficiency standards for residential and commercial products, as well as new standards for products not yet covered, adds multiple rounds of national building codes by 2026, and increases LDV fuel economy standards in the transportation sector to 62 miles per gallon in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Transportation: CAFE Standards | Explores energy and market impacts assuming that LDV CAFE and GHG emissions standards proposed for model years 2017-2025 are enacted. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Transportation: High Technology Battery | Explores the impact of significant improvement in vehicle battery and nonbattery system cost and performance on new LDV sales, energy consumption, and GHG emissions. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Transportation: HDV Reference | Incorporates revised CNG and LNG pricing assumptions and HDV market acceptance relative to the AEO2012 Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Transportation: HD NGV Potential | Using the HDV Reference case, explores energy and market issues associated with the assumed expansion of natural gas refueling infrastructure for the HDV market. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Electricity: Low Nuclear | Assumes that all nuclear plants are limited to a 60-year life (31 gigawatts of retirements), uprates are limited to the 1 gigawatt that has been reported to EIA, and planned additions are the same as in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Electricity: High Nuclear | Assumes that all nuclear plants are life-extended beyond 60 years (except for one announced retirement), and uprates are the same as in the Reference case. New plants include those under construction and plants that have a scheduled U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) or Atomic Safety and Licensing Board hearing and use a currently certified design (e.g., AP1000). Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Electricity: Reference 05 | Includes CSAPR and MATS as in the Reference case, with reduced 5-year environmental investment recovery. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Electricity: Low Gas Price 05 | Includes CSAPR and MATS as in the Reference case, with reduced 5-year environmental investment recovery combined with the High Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Renewable Fuels: Low Renewable Technology Cost | Costs for new nonhydropower renewable generating technologies start 20 percent lower in 2012 and decline to 40 percent lower than Reference case levels in 2035. Capital costs of renewable other liquid fuel technologies start 20 percent lower in 2012 and decline to approximately 40 percent lower than Reference case levels in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Petroleum: LFMM | Changes in the refining industry in the past and prospective future are discussed in the context of the development of the Liquid Fuels Market Module (LFMM) developed for NEMS. Provides overview of large-scale trends and highlights of specific issues that may require further analysis. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Oil and Gas: Low EUR | EUR per tight oil or shale gas well is 50 percent lower than in the Reference case |
| Oil and Gas: High EUR | The EUR per tight oil and shale gas well is 50 percent higher than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Oil and Gas:
High Technically
Recoverable Resources (TRR) |
The well spacing for all tight oil and shale gas plays is 8 wells per square mile (i.e., each well has an average drainage area of 80 acres), and the EUR for tight oil and shale gas wells is 50 percent higher than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Coal: Low Coal Cost | Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.8 percent per year higher than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, mine equipment, and coal transportation rates in 2035 are between 21 and 25 percent lower than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Coal: High Coal Cost | Regional productivity growth rates for coal mining are approximately 2.8 percent per year lower than in the Reference case, and coal mining wages, mine equipment, and coal transportation rates in 2035 are between 25 and 27 percent higher than in the Reference case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Integrated 2011 Demand Technology | Referred to in text as "2011 Demand Technology." Assumes future equipment purchases in the residential and commercial sectors are based only on the range of equipment available in 2011. Energy efficiency of new industrial plant and equipment is held constant at the 2012 level over the projection period. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Integrated Best Available Demand Technology | Referred to in text as "Best Available Demand Technology." Assumes all future equipment purchases in the residential and commercial sectors are made from a menu of technologies that includes only the most efficient models available in a particular year for each fuel, regardless of cost. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Integrated High Demand Technology | Referred to in text as "High Demand Technology." Assumes earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiencies for more advanced residential and commercial equipment. For new residential and commercial construction, building shell efficiencies are assumed to meet ENERGY STAR requirements after 2016. Industrial sector assumes earlier availability, lower costs, and higher efficiency for more advanced equipment and a more rapid rate of improvement in the recovery of biomass byproducts from industrial processes. In the transportation sector, the characteristics of conventional and alternative-fuel LDVs reflect more optimistic assumptions about incremental improvements in fuel economy and costs. Freight trucks are assumed to see more rapid improvement in fuel efficiency for engine and emissions control technologies. More optimistic assumptions for fuel efficiency improvements are also made for the air, rail, and shipping sectors. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Integrated 2011 Technology | Referred to in text as "2011 Technology." Combination of the Integrated 2011 Demand Technology case with the assumption that costs of new power plants do not improve from 2012 levels throughout the projection. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| Integrated High Technology | Referred to in text as "High Technology." Combination of the Integrated High Demand Technology case and the Low Renewable Technology Cost case. Also assumes that costs for new nuclear and fossil-fired power plants are lower than Reference case levels, by 20 percent in 2012 and 40 percent in 2035. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| No GHG Concern | No GHG emissions reduction policy is enacted, and market investment decisions are not altered in anticipation of such a policy. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| GHG15 | Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $15 per metric ton in 2013 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2035. The price is set to target the same reduction in CO2 emissions as in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) GHG Price Economywide case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |
| GHG25 | Applies a price for CO2 emissions throughout the economy, starting at $25 per metric ton in 2013 and rising by 5 percent per year through 2035. The price is set at the same dollar amount as in the AEO2011 GHG Price Economywide case. Partial projection tables in Appendix D. |