SPC AC 161951
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012
   
   VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...20Z UPDATE...
   
   THE CATEGORICAL /10 PERCENT/ THUNDERSTORM LINES HAVE BEEN MODIFIED A
   BIT IN A COUPLE OF AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT/ANTICIPATED TRENDS.
   
   ...NRN ROCKIES/PLAINS...
   THE PRIMARY AREA OF DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
   MOTION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING SHORT WAVE
   TROUGH...ENHANCED BY OROGRAPHIC FORCING...APPEARS LIKELY TO SHIFT
   SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WYOMING THROUGH 00-03Z.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT
   OF THE QUESTION THAT HEATING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL COULD
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH SUNSET.  HOWEVER...EAST OF THE NORTHERN
   ROCKIES...ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE WESTERN
   DAKOTAS...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER PROBABLY WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION
   AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
   
   ...SRN/SE TEXAS INTO WESTERN GULF COAST...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
   SUPPORT RECENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEST OF LUFKIN.  IT DOES NOT
   APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADDITIONAL WEAK THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR AND SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO MID/UPPER TEXAS COASTAL
   AREAS...AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE REGION
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
   
   ..KERR.. 10/16/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT TUE OCT 16 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE PAC NW THIS MORNING WILL DIG SEWD
   INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE COLD
   FRONT WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN W DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...AND ENTER THE GREAT PLAINS AFTER SUNSET. A STEEP LAPSE
   RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
   THE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE
   CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
   MEANWHILE...A WEAK LEAD WAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
   THIS FEATURE...AS WELL AS LOW-LEVEL WAA WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A
   30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL SWLY JET WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS
   MODEST DESTABILIZATION OCCURS FROM THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY INTO
   LOWER MI. FARTHER S...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS LOCATED ALONG A
   STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR S TX WILL AID IN A FEW STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND VERTICAL VORTICITY
   FOCUSED AROUND THE FRONT INVOF CRP MAY SUPPORT BRIEF UPDRAFT
   ROTATION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...BUT THE THREAT FOR A
   TORNADO APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO UPGRADE THE AREA. FARTHER E OVER
   THE SRN FL PENINSULA...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE MAY YIELD A COUPLE
   OF THUNDERSTORMS.
   
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