TPMDC In it, but not of it.

Revised Numbers Suggest Surprisingly Robust Summer Jobs Figure (CHART)

Revised Numbers Suggest Surprisingly Robust Summer Jobs Figure (CHART)

Despite estimating only modest new payroll gains in September, the Department of Labor’s latest employment report was full of good news for the Obama administration and the broader economy. The unemployment rate plummeted, the household survey (which includes self-employed people) pointed to enormous gains, the workforce grew, as did the percentage of those people working or actively looking for work.

But though the report sent Obama supporters into spasms of relief and created a new breed of anti-Obama Department of Labor conspiracy theorists, it’s worth keeping in mind that the initial estimates often over or under estimate actual changes in the labor market.

That disappointing jobs report the day after the Democratic convention ended? The Bureau of Labor Statistics now thinks it undershot the true number of new payrolls by 40,000. If October’s figures are solid, and also suggest an upward revision to today’s number, we’ll have early indications of another fall-winter boomlet — days before the election.

Read More → 2012, 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 elections, Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs
Huge September Drop In Unemployment, Economy Adds 114,000 Jobs

Huge September Drop In Unemployment, Economy Adds 114,000 Jobs

The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in line with analyst expectations and comparable to an initially disappointing August figure, which was revised significantly upward Friday from 96,000 to 142,000.

Despite a modest topline payroll figure, the report is filled with positive metrics — most visibly that the unemployment rate plummeted from 8.1 to 7.8 percent, about where it was when President Obama took office, amid the 2008 and 2009 economic collapse. In past months, reductions in the unemployment rate have been attributed to a shrinking workforce, but the September report indicates a 418,000 person increase in labor force participation.

The initial figures come less than 48 hours after the first presidential debate in Denver — a development that’s likely to overshadow third day stories about President Obama’s underwhelming performance. It’s also the first employment report since the Federal Reserve announced a new, open-ended round of monetary stimulus last month.

Read More → Barack Obama, Economy, Jobs
New Romney Tax Idea Could Crush Charitable Giving

New Romney Tax Idea Could Crush Charitable Giving

Mitt Romney’s big new tax reform idea — to cap the amount individuals can benefit from tax deductions in a given year — still lacks for hard specifics but the basic shape of the idea provides tax economists key clues about its potential incidence. And the biggest loser, if he were to implement the plan as president, according to an expert on charitable giving, would be one of the right’s favorite features of the tax code: the deduction for charitable giving.

“The effect on charitable giving is likely to be large for high income individuals, especially in the short run,” says Jim Andreoni, a UC San Diego professor of economics who studies the economics of charitable giving.

Read More → Mitt Romney, Taxes
Mitt Romney Backflips On Romneycare

Mitt Romney Backflips On Romneycare

Mitt Romney used to boast that his Massachusetts health care law should serve as a model for national health reform. After President Obama took that advice, and opposing the Affordable Care Act became an essential criterion for membership in the Republican Party, Romney executed a hairpin turn and began describing his reforms as uniquely suited to Massachusetts — not the whole country — if even that.

At the first presidential debate Wednesday night, he came full circle.

“What we did in Massachusetts is a model for the nation, state by state,” he said.

Read More → Health Care, Health Care Repeal, Mitt Romney, health care reform
How Much <em>Would</em> Mitt Romney’s Tax Cuts Cost? (VIDEO)

How Much Would Mitt Romney’s Tax Cuts Cost? (VIDEO)

In repeatedly denying during Wednesday’s night debate that his proposed 20 percent across-the-board tax cut would cut government revenues by $5 trillion over 10 years, Mitt Romney stopped short of providing his own figure for how much the proposal would cost the Treasury.

Asked by TPM what the accurate cost of Romney’s tax rate cuts would be, Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul dodged: “His tax reform proposal is revenue-neutral,” she said.

So it has gone throughout the campaign. Neither Romney nor his campaign nor his economic advisers have ever specified the cost in lost revenue of his sweeping tax cut proposal.

Read More → Mitt Romney, Tax Cuts, Tax Policy Center, Tax Reform, Taxes
Romney’s $5 Trillion Tax Dodge

Romney’s $5 Trillion Tax Dodge

If you watched Wednesday night’s presidential debate you witnessed an amazing role reversal for a modern Republican. President Obama accused Mitt Romney of wanting to cut taxes — specifically by $5 trillion — and Mitt Romney claimed he’d be strongly opposed to such a terrible idea.

A Republican, opposed to a giant tax cut? Here he is in his own words.

“I don’t have a $5 trillion tax cut. … I’m not looking for a $5 trillion tax cut. … Let me repeat what I said. I’m not in favor of a $5 trillion tax cut. That’s not my plan.”

Read More → 2012, 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 elections, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Tax Cuts, Taxes
Top Romney Adviser: States Will Have To Cover People With Pre-Existing Conditions Under President Romney

Top Romney Adviser: States Will Have To Cover People With Pre-Existing Conditions Under President Romney

After the first presidential debate at the University of Denver in Colorado on Wednesday night, one of Mitt Romney’s top advisers acknowledged that, as a result Romney’s plan to repeal Obamacare, people with pre-existing medical conditions would likely be unable to purchase insurance.

The admission directly contradicts the GOP candidate’s claim during the debate that “pre-existing conditions are covered under my plan” — a contention Romney has repeated on the trail and that his campaign has repeatedly walked back.

Read More → 2012, 2012 Presidential Election, 2012 elections, Barack Obama, Debates, Eric Fehrnstrom, Health Care, Mitt Romney, RomneyCare
Denver Debate: Obama Bear Hugs Romneycare (VIDEO)

Denver Debate: Obama Bear Hugs Romneycare (VIDEO)

In the course of defending his health care law at the first presidential debate Wednesday night in Denver, President Obama gave Mitt Romney’s nearly identical Massachusetts health care plan a big bear hug.

“[T]he irony is we have seen this model work well in Massachusetts,” Obama said. “Governor Romney did a good thing working with Democrats in the state to set up what is essentially the identical model. As a consequence people are covered there. It has not destroyed jobs. As a consequence we have a system where we have the opportunity to start bringing down costs instead of leaving millions of people out in the cold.”

Read More → Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Obamacare, RomneyCare
Romney Backs Away From Own Tax Plan

Romney Backs Away From Own Tax Plan

At the first presidential debate in Colorado Wednesday night, former Gov. Mitt Romney disputed a central criticism of his tax reform plan — and appeared to disavow one of its central features.

Responding to President Obama’s description of Romney’s proposal, Romney claimed: “I don’t have a $5 trillion tax cut. I don’t have a tax cut of the scale you’re talking about. I think we ought to provide tax relief to people in the middle class. But I won’t reduce the share of tax paid by high-income people. … I’m not looking to cut massive taxes and to reduce revenues going to the government. My number one principal is, there will be no tax cut that adds to the deficit. I want to underline that no tax cut that will add to the deficit.”

Read More → Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, Taxes

Editor & Publisher

Josh Marshall

Managing Editor

David Kurtz

Associate Editor

Sara Libby

Assistant Editor

Igor Bobic

Reporters

Brian Beutler

Carl Franzen

Sahil Kapur

Eric Kleefeld

Eric Lach

Nick Martin

Evan McMorris-Santoro

Ryan J. Reilly

Benjy Sarlin

Front Page Editor

David Taintor

Polling Editor

Kyle Leighton

Assistant Polling Editor

Tom Kludt

News Writer

Pema Levy

Video Editor

Michael Lester

Publishing Fellow

Christopher O’Driscoll

Polling Fellow

Casey Michel

General Manager & General Counsel

Millet Israeli

VP, Ad Sales

Bob Edmunds

Bruce Ellerstein

Manager, Ad Operations and Sales Support

Kelly Williams

Assistant To The Publisher

Megan Reback

Director of Technology

Eric Buth

Designer/Developer

Ni Mu

Matthew Wozniak