NOUS41
KWBC 031138
PNSWSH
Technical
Implementation Notice 12-25
National
Weather Service Headquarters Washington DC
738 AM
EDT Thu May 3 2012
To: Subscribers:
-Family of Services
-NOAA Weather Wire Service
-Emergency Managers Weather
Information Network
-NOAAPORT
-Other NWS Partners, Users and
Employees
From: Tim McClung
Science Plans Branch Chief
Office of Science and Technology
Subject: Update to GFS-based Model Output Statistics
(MOS) Wind
Guidance and resulting changes to LAMP
wind guidance on
or about
June 5, 2012.
On or about Tuesday, June 5, 2012, with the 1200
Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) model cycle, the NWS Meteorological
Development Laboratory will implement new Global Forecast System (GFS)-based Model
Output Statistics (MOS) wind speed and direction guidance for sites available in
the short-range (MAV) and extended-range (MEX) text bulletins. These new
equations correct bias changes in the GFS model upgrade implemented www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin11-07gfs_update_aaa.htm
These changes also will impact the GFS-based Localized
Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) beginning with the 1600 UTC Run.
Geographic
expanses of certain vegetation types in the southern and western United States
correspond to areas where degradation in the MOS wind guidance was most
evident, particularly in the warm season. Wind equations are being replaced for
most stations over the CONUS. The GFS model upgrade has shown little impact on
MOS guidance over ocean water so the current set of equations for all marine
stations will remain in place. Guidance for stations in Alaska and neighboring
Canadian sites also are not being replaced at this
time because verification of the new equations shows a slight degradation in
skill.
Three METAR
sites in the West no longer report or do not contain a sufficient number of
wind observations from which to develop new equations and forecasts produced
from the old equations and are significantly degraded. Guidance for wind
direction and speed are now be missing for the
following three sites for all cycles and projections in the MAV and MEX bulletins:
K4BM Wilkerson Pass, CO
KBJN Tonopah Range 74 Nellis AFB, NV
KTDO Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
As a
result of the GFS MOS change above, LAMP guidance for wind direction, speed,
and gusts will now be missing for the following site for all cycles and
projections in the LAMP LAV bulletins and BUFR messages:
KTDO Toledo-Winlock Memorial, WA
In
addition, guidance for wind direction and speed has been added for the
following two Air Force sites for all cycles and projections in the Air Force
MAV and MEX bulletins:
KBYS Bicycle Lake Army Airfield, CA
KL35 Big Bear City Airport, CA
These
changes will slightly alter the format of the MAV and MEX text products because
lines for wind direction and speed will be added or removed for the 5 sites
listed above. These changes will
slightly alter the format of the LAV text products because lines for wind
direction, speed, and gusts will be removed for the 1 site listed above. The tables below list the communication
identifiers for all products affected by these changes.
A
temporary Website has been made available until the new equations are
implemented so users may compare the current operational GFS MOS wind speed
with the improved GFS MOS wind speed guidance. The comparison page can be found at:
http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~mos/mos/gfsmos_wind/
Table 1: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS
public text products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING AWIPS
ID WMO HEADING AWIPS
ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
-------------------- ----------------------
FOPA20 KWNO MAVPA0 FEPA20 KWNO MEXPA0
FOUS21 KWNO MAVNE1 FEUS21 KWNO MEXNE1
FOUS22 KWNO MAVSE1 FEUS22 KWNO MEXSE1
FOUS23 KWNO MAVNC1 FEUS23 KWNO MEXNC1
FOUS24 KWNO MAVSC1 FEUS24 KWNO MEXSC1
FOUS25 KWNO MAVRM1 FEUS25 KWNO MEXRM1
FOUS26 KWNO MAVWC0 FEUS26 KWNO MEXWC0
Table 2: Communication identifiers for the affected Air
Force MOS text products.
WMO HEADING AWIPS ID WMO HEADING AWIPS ID
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
--------------------- ----------------------
FOUS30 KWNO MAVF26 FEUS30 KWNO MEXF26
Table 3. Communication identifiers for the GFS-based MOS BUFR products affected by the changes. WMO HEADING WMO HEADING REGION
(SHORT RANGE) (EXTENDED RANGE)
------------ ----------- ------------------
JSML30 KWNO JSMT30 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSML31 KWNO JSMT31 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSML32 KWNO JSMT32 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSML33 KWNO JSMT33 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML34 KWNO JSMT34 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSML35 KWNO JSMT35 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSML36 KWNO JSMT36 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
Table 4: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP
public text product affected by the changes.
WMO
HEADING AWIPS ID
----------- --------
FOUS11 KWNO LAVUSA
Table 5: Communication identifiers for the GFS-based LAMP
BUFR products affected by the changes.
WMO HEADING REGION
------------ ---------------
JSMF10 KWNO PACIFIC REGION
JSMF11 KWNO NORTHEAST CONUS
JSMF12 KWNO SOUTHEAST CONUS
JSMF13 KWNO NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF14 KWNO SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS
JSMF15 KWNO ROCKY MOUNTAIN CONUS
JSMF16 KWNO WEST COAST CONUS
For questions
regarding the update to the GFS MOS wind guidance and resulting changes to the
MAV and MEX bulletins please contact:
Kathryn Gilbert
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-713-0023, Ext. 130
Kathryn.Gilbert@noaa.gov
For
questions regarding the changes to LAMP guidance please contact:
Judy Ghirardelli
MDL/Silver Spring, Maryland
301-713-0056, Ext. 194
Judy.Ghirardelli@noaa.gov
Links to
the MOS products and descriptions are online at:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop
NWS
national TINs are online at:
http://www.weather.gov/os/notif.htm
$$
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