With today’s release of trade data for December, we now have the complete picture of exports and imports for 2011.  Exports continued to show strong growth, climbing 14.5 percent in 2011.   Along with the 16.7 percent increase in 2010, this means that exports have increased more than one-third (33.5 percent to be precise) over the last two years, a pace that slightly exceeds that needed to achieve the National Export Initiative goal of doubling exports by 2014.   

Export growth in 2011 was widespread, led by advances in industrial supplies excluding petroleum products, which increased 20.5 percent relative to 2010 and accounted for almost one-third of the total increase in exports of goods.  Petroleum products also contributed significantly to the increase in exports of goods, accounting for about one-fifth of the total gain.

Geographically, the increase in exports was also widespread; of the major regions, exports to Central and South America increased the fastest, growing about 21.7 percent relative to 2010, followed by Mexico with 20.8-percent growth. Canada and Mexico still are the dominant destination for U.S. exports; in 2011 exports of goods to these countries accounted for nearly one-third of total goods exports and also accounted for about one-third of the increase in goods exports from 2010 to 2011.

Exports to countries with which we have free trade agreements increased faster that export growth as a whole; exports to these countries increased 17.4 percent from 2010 to 2011.  More recently, exports growth tapered in the second half of 2011.  Despite the 0.7-percent uptick in December, growth was relatively flat in the second half of the year.  Exports in December were just 0.6 percent above their July level, the slowest 5-month growth since the end of the recession.

Imports increased 13.8 percent in 2011 after climbing 19.5 percent in 2010.  The 2011 advance in imports was widespread, led by industrial supplies (including petroleum) and capital goods.  Other consumer goods; automotive vehicles, parts, and engines; services; and food, feeds, and beverages also contributed to the yearly growth.  Only industrial supplies (including petroleum) and food, feeds, and beverages saw growth accelerate with respect to 2010. 

After narrowing during the world-wide recession, the U.S. trade deficit widened for a second year in a row in 2011, from $500.0 billion in 2010 to $558.0 billion.  The rise essentially reflected a larger petroleum trade deficit, driven by higher prices for imported oil which rose from about $75 per barrel of imported crude in 2010 to about $100 per barrel in 2011.  Looking at petroleum on strictly a volume basis, our imports actually fell slightly from 2010 to 2011 as the number of barrels entering the country decreased 1.6 percent.  Put another way, if one were to take the petroleum products out of the picture, our trade balance basically held steady in 2011, with the deficit in non-petroleum goods worsening but largely offset by improvement in our surplus in services.

~Mark Doms, Chief Economist, U.S. Department of Commerce

February 10, 2012

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