Overview
Related Amber Waves Articles
USDA Agricultural
Projections to 2021, released in February 2012, provide longrun
projections for the farm sector for the next 10 years. These annual
projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and
aggregate indicators of the sector, such as farm income and food
prices.
Important assumptions for the projections include:
- Global economic growth reflects a movement back to long-run
steady gains.
- Increases in population in the world continue to slow. Growth
in most developing countries remains above that in the rest of the
world.
- Population gains in developing countries, along with higher
incomes, increased urbanization, and expansion of the middle class,
are particularly important for growth in global food demand.
- Continued expansion of biofuels further adds to world demand
for agricultural products.
Key results in the projections include:
- Prices for major crops decrease in the early years of the
projections as global production responds to recent high
prices.
- Total U.S. red meat and poultry production is projected to fall
in 2012 and 2013 in response to reduced producer returns over much
of the past several years. Meat production then increases in
response to improved returns.
- World economic growth and demand for biofuels combine to
support longer run increases in consumption, trade, and prices for
agricultural products.
- Thus, following the near-term declines, prices for corn, wheat,
oilseeds, and many other crops remain historically high.
- Following near-term reductions from record levels reached in
2011, the values of U.S. agricultural exports and net farm income
each rise through the rest of the decade.
- Retail food price increases average less than the overall rate
of inflation in 2013-21, largely reflecting production increases in
the livestock sector which limit meat price increases.