Typhoon 17W (Sanba), # 7

6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Just two days into its existence, Sanba has already been upgraded to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status, and continues its rapid intensification. Joint Typhoon Warning Center now forecasts Sanba to roar 42 miles southwest of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. This thing is NO JOKE, people. Every chance it could achieve super-typhoon status. Best to be prepared.

Sanba has slowed somewhat and is tracking more northwest than earlier forecast. Not good news in one respect, in that Sanba is nourishing itself over warm ocean waters. But Sanba appears as if it will continue on course for an almost-direct hit on Okinawa.

Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 3 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Sunday.

Start preparing. Now.


5:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: This thing continues to get bigger, fatter and monstrous with every passing warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Latest forecast wind timeline as of this afternoon:

-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 144-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.

Clearly, Sanba is fast approaching the no-joke stage. I know, I know; Bolaven was supposed to be, too (and was for Camp Schwab and Okuma). But far better to be safe than sorry and treat Sanba as the "boy who cried wolf."

More later.


1 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba slowed early this morning, then yawed a bit west, but is still forecast to make an almost-direct hit on Okinawa early Sunday morning. Closest point of approach is forecast to be 30 miles southwest at 8 a.m. Sunday.

Here's the initial wind forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:

-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds, 127-mph gusts, 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track has Sanba rolling through the Okinawa area rather quickly, then steaming north toward the Korean peninsula early next week.

Keep in mind, it's still a bit early, only more than a day since Sanba spawned, so things could still change.

In the meantime, better to be safe than sorry. Time to plan those visits to the PX, ATM, gasoline stand and commissary, and begin a general cleanup around home and office.



Midnight Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba continues to develop rapidly, although it's moving north-northwest at a pretty good clip, 14 mph, which affords it less opportunity to nourish itself over warm west-central Pacific waters. Still, Okinawa should be bracing for a wacky, wet Sunday as Sanba roars 48 miles southwest  around 6 a.m., packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at its center.


5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: In very short order, Sanba, less than a day old, has mushroomed into a tropical storm. And it appears headed closer to Okinawa than first forecast this morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track has Sanba roaring 55 miles southwest of Okinawa at mid-day Sunday, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at its center.


4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Make that 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as Tropical Depression Sanba is now forecast to rumble 97 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 a.m. Sunday.


11 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Here we go again. A new tropical depression spawned overnight near Palau. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for 17W to turn north and make a beeline toward Okinawa, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it creeps within 97 miles of Okinawa early Sunday morning. As with all tropical cyclones, this one’s in the early stages, so things could change. Stay tuned to PST, AFN Okinawa Wave 89.1 FM, your commanders’ access channels and Facebook pages.

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