The rich countries have plenty of food, while the poor countries lack the money and the infrastructure to get beyond subsistence. Storage and distribution are their two big challenges, compounded by conflict and poor governance.
The world also must somehow lessen the impact that rising food production – particularly meat – has on the globe’s most precious resource: clean water.
Inefficient water use – whether from leaking pipes, run-down irrigation systems, a failure to recycle or simply profligate usage that takes no account of the full cost of water – is setting up the world for water wars. Wherever there is a river or freshwater lake with more than one claimant to its water, the potential for conflict exists.
We see that today in tensions between India and China over the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra system, between China and its downstream neighbours over the Mekong River, between India and Pakistan over dams on the Indus River and in the Middle East between Israel and its neighbours over the Jordan River.
Water stress is not going to go away. By 2020, India and China, the two biggest water users and home to 2.5 billion people between them, will face difficult decisions over how they price their water resources. Increasing prosperity will lift demand for more food, including protein-rich meat and dairy, whose production consumes more water. Imports can help, of course: China is likely to import 80 million tonnes of soybeans and 20 million tonnes of corn by 2015.
One consequence of this prosperity is that China is drawing on its groundwater faster than rainfall can replenish it. This unsustainable water use increases pressure to find new water sources, such as river diversions from the west, or from as-yet unexploited aquifers.