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AGXX40 KNHC 061755
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2012

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF WATERS.
OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAIL OVER THE
GULF WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST TONIGHT WITH FRESHENED WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN TEXAS SUN MORNING...THEN REACH FROM N
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN TEXAS MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL
STALL AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W...
HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ALONG A TROUGH E OF THE BAHAMAS
ISLAND CHAIN. LATEST SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE RIDGE...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT FRESH WINDS NW OF THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LOCALLY TIGHTER. SEAS
ARE GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT OVER THE NW PART OF THE AREA AND 4 TO 6
FT E OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SUN...WITH THE TROUGH CONTINUING
ITS WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE ADDED A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN/IF THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
GFS AND CMC KEEPING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND DEEPENING IT FURTHER. WILL CONTINUE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST FAVORING THE LESS AGGRESSIVE ECMWF AND UKMET AND WILL
MONITOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS FOR MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THIS
FEATURE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF TWO TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE AREA...ONE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE THE OTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. LATEST
SCATTEROMETER...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 4 FT ORE LESS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N
ATLC WATERS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON...AND INTO THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN TUE.

NOTE...GRIDDED MARINE FORECAST IS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/TAFB/GRIDDED_MARINE

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.

SW N ATLANTIC...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AL





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