Solar superstorm could kill millions, cost trillions
Solutions include local reliance encouraged by a resolution introduced by Rep. Roscoe Bartlet
Washington,
Aug 3 -
Solar superstorm could kill millions, cost trillions
Reuters
3:36 p.m. CDT, August 3, 2012
http://www.chicagotribune.com/topic/sns-rt-solar-superstorm-pixl2e8j3akd-20120803,0,6592838,full.story
* Sun's geomagnetic blast could knock out U.S. power
* Civilization would likely erode if electric grid went down
* Solutions include mechanical fixes and local self-reliance [such as a resolution Rep. Roscoe Bartlett submitted a resolution to the House of Representatives encouraging U.S. communities to develop civil
defense programs to prepare for sustained power outages,
including providing 20 percent of all power needs locally; see Rep. Bartlett's release for more details here:
http://tinyurl.com/c5ce5zf
]
By Deborah Zabarenko
WASHINGTON, Aug 3 (Reuters)
EXCERPT:
… A monster blast of geomagnetic particles from the sun could
destroy 300 or more of the 2,100 high-voltage transformers that
are the backbone of the U.S. electric grid, according to the
National Academy of Sciences (NAS).
… U.S. experts estimate as much as a 7 percent chance of a
superstorm in the next decade, which seems a slight risk, but
the effects would be so wide-ranging - akin to a major meteorite
strike - that it has drawn official concern.
Power blackouts can cause chaos, as they did briefly in
India when more than 600 million people lost electricity for
hours on two consecutive days in July. However, the kind of
long-duration outage that might happen in the case of a massive
solar storm would have more profound and costly effects.
There is disagreement on how costly the damage would be, but
experts in the U.S. government and industry acknowledge it is a
complex problem requiring a coordinated solution.
… Richard Andres, an energy and environmental security expert
at the military's National Defense University (NDU), is helping
to coordinate an interagency group to deal with the problem. The
failure of the national power grid could be disastrous, he said.
… The only way to deal with this kind of threat, Andres said
by telephone, is to involve the White House, Congress, private
industry, the Pentagon and agencies ranging from the Department
of Homeland Security to NASA and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration. This group has been meeting at NDU
since last year to tackle this problem.
… About three or four times in the 11-year solar cycle, the
sun hurls a chunk of its atmosphere into space big enough to
have an impact on humans, said Bill Murtagh, an expert on space
weather at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
… Two such monster storms occurred in 1859 and 1921.
Neither were catastrophic, mostly because society was not as
dependent on electricity and the U.S. electric grid was not the
sophisticated, interconnected network it is now.
… It could be another 500 years before a solar storm as strong
as the one that hit in 1859 heads for Earth, Murtagh said, but
he added: "The more harsh reality is, it could happen next week.
We just do not know."
… The North American Electric Reliability Corporation, or
NERC, which oversees North America's power grid, disputed the
academy's estimate of a possible loss of hundreds of
high-voltage transformers in a solar superstorm.
… Putting resisters on all high-voltage transformers could
cost $150 million to $200 million.
Paul Werbos, an expert in the field of decision theory, said
that given the chance of a trillion-dollar solar storm,
installing resisters and taking other measures to mitigate the
risk is a "no-brainer ... We should just go ahead and do it."
Representative Roscoe Bartlett, a Maryland Republican,
agreed. On Friday, he submitted a resolution to the House of
Representatives encouraging U.S. communities to develop civil
defense programs to prepare for sustained power outages,
including providing 20 percent of all power needs locally in the
event that the national electric grid goes down.
