Pacific cross country in review, Sept. 2012
Published: October 2, 2012
Here’s a look, league-by-league, at the Pacific’s high school cross-country season and teams’ chances at the upcoming Asia-Pacific Invitational and Far East meets. Analysis provided by longtime Pacific track and cross-country observer Bruce Carrick, with times provided by Athletic.net.
OVERVIEW
To date, the times have not been impressive relative to the quarter-century history of using the Tama Hills Recreation Center course. Perhaps the finals later this month will see some breakthrough efforts.
However, there is closer-than-normal competition and parity. Six boys teams and six girls teams are represented in the season's top 11 marks on Tama Hills.
In Korea, Seoul American and Seoul Foreign are locked in close battles in both genders. And on Okinawa, the Kadena and Kubasaki girls are playing seesaw competition.
KANTO/DODDS JAPAN
Is this going to be the year of the Yokota boys? They opened the season with a strong showing at the Tama Hills gathering of Kanto schools, placing five in the top 12 of their heat on Sept. 8 and beating American School In Japan, unofficially.
Maybe it will be Nile C. Kinnick's year. In the same meet, but in a different heat, Kinnick narrowly lost the dual to St. Mary's International. Later, when Kinnick and Yokota were in the same heat, Kinnick took three of the top nine spots, but Yokota swarmed in six runners before Kinnick`s fourth man.
After four weeks of racing at Tama Hills at month's end, Kinnick's Robert Beard has a 22-second lead on runner-up Masanari Yoshida of St. Mary’s and a 33-second lead on newcomer freshman Jarrell Hibler of Zama American on the Tama Hills 2.9-mile course.
Meanwhile, Yokota and Kinnick boys have also been out setting some remarkable times on 5,000-meter courses. On Sept. 29 at Sasebo, on a measured 5,000-meter course, Kinnick and Yokota posted the five fastest 5000-meter marks this season in the Pacific. Aaron Russ of Kinnick has the region's best mark of 16:40, followed by Ryan Riley (16:42) and freshman Daniel Galvin (16:55), both of Yokota. Beard stayed home, or likely he would have claimed the region's best time and prevented Yokota's win at Sasebo.
On the strength of what Yokota and Kinnick have demonstrated, it may be premature to expect the Far East trophy to come down to the usual contest between Kadena and Seoul American. Kinnick will need to find a competitive fifth runner to challenge and Yokota's pack will need to edge closer to the front. Meantime, both Yokota and Kinnick might surprise their Kanto private-school cousins at the Kanto finals on Oct. 13.
The surprise of 2012 in Kanto has been the emergence of the International School of the Sacred Heart girls team. They opened the season with a major upset of Seisen International (caveat, Seisen's No. 2 collapsed on the grueling Killer Hill), then finished September with a victory over ASIJ’s girls, a tie broken by the sixth runner. Who ever heard of a team with a faster sixth runner than ASIJ?
Yokota’s girls started the season with an impressive showing despite losing to ASIJ, taking the first three places, but yielding the next five to ASIJ. On the same day, ISSH placed four runners between Kinnick’s top two. St. Maur International's Lucille Nunnely has the second-best time on Tama’s 2.1-mile girls course, just behind Carydaliz Fontanez of Kinnick; and St. Maur's second to fifth runners are sandwiching Yokota’s third and fourth.
Using the best times set during the month, one might anticipate a possible reversal at the Kanto finals: Seisen, ASIJ and then ISSH. St. Maur, lurking just behind Kinnick and Yokota, is poised to stake a claim on fifth place. Tournament scoring could work greatly in St. Maur's favor if Yokota cannot narrow its one-to-five spread. ASIJ and Seisen have not run 5,000 meters yet, but on the Tama Hills course, their girls share a 55-second spread, and between the two schools they are likely to capture five top-10 ribbons in the Kanto finals. ISSH has a 74-second spread but only one medal contender. St. Maur is spread about 2 minutes, primarily because front-running Nunnely is so far out front.
The end-of-the-month surprise is the emergence of Yokota freshman Samantha Arnold in a victory over Fontanez at Sasebo. Fontanez still has the region's best 5,000-meter mark. Look for a major three-way battle for the league individual title.
OKINAWA
From a distance, it looks like Okinawa's boys champion is likely to be Kadena. Without accurate course descriptions, it is a little difficult to compare times with races elsewhere, but Kubasaki's Eric Armes seems to be running faster than he was last year, and may be the region's individual to beat. Kadena's Andrew Kilkenny might see it differently, as he too is running faster than last year; and both runners have a 17:17 mark (5,000m or 3.1 miles, whichever is truest), but in different weeks, on different courses and not running together. Kadena is solid, with a 1:20 spread, but are they solid enough to hold off Yokota at Far East?
The Okinawa girls race looks incredibly close, between Kadena and Kubasaki. Both claim one runner under 20:00 and one under 21:00. Kadena has better depth and will definitely score better in a big meet. Ana Hernandez (Kadena) is running way ahead of herself from a year ago. Kubasaki's transfer Jessica Freedman looks steady, and with some push from teammate Allie Reichenberg, she will continue to be Ana's big challenge. All of them should be focusing on getting ready for Fontanez, Arnold and Nunnely.
SOUTH KOREA
Seoul American and Seoul Foreign just finished duals in which they flip-flopped first and second in the boys and the girls races by one-point margins. In 5,000-meter performance lists, Seoul Foreign's Henry Valentine-Ramsden and George Dornbach have sizable leads over the rest of the field, but Seoul American packs in six runners ahead of Seoul Foreign's fourth. Seoul American needs a front runner in order to win in a big meet.
Seoul American's front three girls, Sally Lee, Helen Merkle and Serena Fontenot, are ranked ahead of Seoul Foreign's first, but despite their success over Seoul Foreign, the 3-minute gap between fourth and fifth is actually large enough to be a big handicap in a major meet. The other major teams in the region all have sixth and even seventh runners that can displace Seoul American's fifth and perhaps fourth. I am sure the Seoul American squad would like to be seeing the name Henderson in this story, so what if there were Hendersons on the team this year? Amanda Henderson, the former two-time Far East champion, is now a walk-on at Washington State and her younger sister Pam, now a junior, runs for a high school in Pullman, Wash.Seoul American has a solid group but could really use an out-front runner or two.
GUAM
Guam High does not appear to be at the same level of competition as the above schools, ranking below Division II E.J. King and Robert D. Edgren boys and Zama’s girls in hypothetical matchups.
SUMMARY
Yokota boys' 55-second spread is at 5,000 meters, Seoul American's spread is 67 and Kadena's is 1:22. These are good team profiles.
But if cross country were a three-man race, Kinnick might prevail over St. Mary’s, ASIJ (the top two boys teams in the region) as well as Yokota, Kubasaki and Seoul American.
For the girls, Kinnick, Kadena and Kubasaki are talented in their front two or three. Kadena appears to be set to score well in a large invitational format but has a weaker 3-4-5 than Kinnick. Kubasaki will also suffer a few extra points because their gap between second and third is a minute and the next two are not tight either. Yokota's strength is a tight 1-3, with just 30 seconds back to fourth, but they will struggle to get more than one runner in the top 10 in the Kanto Finals.
If cross country were a three-woman race, ASIJ, Seisen, ISSH, Kubasaki, Kadena, Kinnick, Yokota and Seoul American would be in very tight race, too tight to call. Every one of these teams has a shot at a championship, and the outcome rides on the shoulders of the Nos. 4 and 5 runners. ASIJ, Seisen, ISSH, and Kinnick gain advantage when you look at the fourth runner.
