By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
11:15 a.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: After four days as a super-duper typhoon, Jelawat finally gave up the battle and was downgraded to regular ol’ typhoon status by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in its latest advisory. Still, Jelawat apparently means business and will remain stronger than earlier forecast for both Okinawa and Kanto.
We’re looking at 126-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts around mid-afternoon Saturday for Okinawa. Whoo-wee, now that’s serious business. Worse than Sanba. Worse than Bolaven.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 has been declared for Okinawa. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.
By Joe Gromelski
Published: September 27, 2012
12:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight demonstrates a nasty Saturday and even early Sunday in store for Okinawa. The island remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 for now; expect that to change by early morning. Yokosuka Naval Base is in TCCOR 4 and Sasebo Naval Base in TCCOR Storm Watch.
Okinawa’s latest forecast wind timeline:
- Sustained 35-mph winds or greater, 6 p.m. Friday.
- Sustained 40-mph winds or greater, 9 p.m. Friday.
- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 7 a.m. Saturday.
- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds, 138-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.
- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 9 p.m. Saturday.
- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.
- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, noon Sunday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
Sasebo Naval Base has set Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch and Yokosuka Naval Base entered TCCOR 4 in advance of Super Typhoon Jelawat. Okinawa remains in TCCOR 3; that will likely change by early morning.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
7 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Ol’ Jelawat looks like it plans to remain a pesky little bugger as snakes its way east toward Okinawa after paying a brief visit to the Taiwan area. Things should get a bit hairy starting Saturday morning. Jelawat is forecast to roar just south of Kadena around 3 p.m. Saturday, with peak winds, 98-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts, forecast for mid-afternoon and things dying down sometime Saturday evening, forecasts project.
And Jelawat won’t stop there. Even as it loses its powerful punch while making a northeast beeline toward central Honshu, Jelawat is expected to continue packing severe tropical storm-strength winds, 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts as it comes ashore over Hamanatsu long about mid-morning Monday. Might not be that mighty as it rumbles inland some 34 miles northwest of Yokota and 65 miles north of Yokosuka around mid-afternoon, but it should still be a wet, windy day in the Tokyo area.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain to enter TCCOR 4 sometime Friday, if nothing else as a precaution.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 10 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, midnight Friday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 7 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 98-mph sustained winds, 132-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 a.m. Sunday.
Ever the securocrat, Pacific Storm Tracker bids you to always err on the side of caution, or as the theme song of the old Mel Brooks comedy The Producers suggests: “Hope for the best, expect the worst.” Especially for those new to the island, never treat these things lightly, for if you do, Mr. Murphy of Murphy’s Law fame is likely to pitch tent in the living room of the house ill-prepared for a storm. Better to have too much and not need it than to have not enough and need it desperately.
You have about one more day to ensure the trampoline is taken down, the garbage and recycle bins, bicycles and barbeque grills are stowed or tied down, anything that can be taken airborne and become a dangerous projectile. Those heavy butane containers that seemingly need 10 people to lift? They can be buffeted all around a patio or backyard, believe it or not. Any gusts or winds above 58 mph are “no-kidding” stuff that needs to be taken very seriously.
If you’ve not done so already, make that run to the commissary and PX. Flashlights, a portable radio and batteries to run them, enough bottled water, non-perishable food, diapers and sanitizer, food for your furry friends to last three days at least; power can be off for quite a while during these things. Also, visit your ATM and get enough local currency and dollars to last the same period, and make sure to visit the gasoline stand and fill up the tank.
Be safe out there, guys and dolls.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
4 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 was declared at 3:15 p.m. Thursday for Okinawa. Winds of 58 mph or greater are possible within 48 hours.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 27, 2012
1 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Hmm … Make that a Category 2-equivalent pass through Okinawa, apparently.
Super Typhoon Jelawat is forecast to weaken as it approaches Okinawa, but not as quickly as originally forecast. Still, Jelawat should pick up forward speed and rapidly charge through the area on its beeline course for mid-Honshu. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts have Jelawat roaring 11 miles south of Kadena Air Base around 3 p.m. Saturday, with maximum 86 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts forecast for early afternoon. We’re still looking at between 6 to 8 inches of rain starting at noon Friday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 26, 2012
9:15 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat won’t be the powerful beast it is now, but should still take a pretty solid 2-by-4 to Okinawa as it rolls 12 miles south of the island about 10 p.m. Saturday, still packing a Category 1-equivalent punch of 86-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts.
It looks as if Jelawat will weaken rapidly as it plunges northeast and crashes ashore near Hamamatsu on Honshu’s south coast around 3 p.m. Monday, still packing 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts. Those should diminish as Jelawat interacts with mountains and strong vertical wind shear; U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain should feel some serious gusts and experience some rainshowers into Monday evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 26, 2012
3 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: Jelawat continues on a path that is forecast to take it 35 miles east-southeast of Okinawa at midnight Saturday, though it is projected to diminish into a severe Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it roars over us, with maximum 80-mph winds and 104-mph gusts forecast for just before midnight. Rain associated with Jelawat should start falling around noon Friday; 6 to 8 inches are forecast.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 25, 2012
9 a.m. Wednesday, Sept. 26, Japan time: We should be getting used to this, having done this enough times over the summer, so start planning that visit to the commissary and PX to ensure your flashlight and portable radio has enough battery power, grab enough water, non-perishable food, diapers and food for your furry friends to last at least three days. Also, to visit the ATM and gas up the car. Should be entirely routine by now.
Here’s the forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Super Typhoon Jelawat should be gradually losing strength as it roars 20 miles east of Okinawa at 2 a.m. Sunday, but it will still pack a powerful Category 2-equivalent punch, maximum 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts around 10 p.m. Saturday:
