NEPEC Meetings
2011
November 14-15, 2011, Seattle, Washington
The NEPEC will meet on the campus of the University of Washington on November 14 and 15. The Council will receive briefings on lessons learned from the 2010 Chile and 2011 Japan subduction earthquakes, monitoring and research efforts relating to earthquakes in the Pacific Northwest, research and development relating to earthquake early warning and short-term aftershock forecasting, and recent findings from the study of episodic tremor and slip and from the analysis of various seismic hazards in and around the State of Washington. The Council will also receive brief updates on the project intended to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012, and on other topics.
April 16, 2011, Memphis, Tennessee
The NEPEC will meet at the Crowne Plaza Memphis Downtown on April 16. The Council will receive a report from the Independent Expert Panel on New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquake Hazards, a subcommittee charged with commenting on the level of hazard posed by future large earthquakes in the region and on priorities for future research to better constrain that hazard. The Council may also receive briefings on other topics relating to earthquakes in the central US, on earthquake swarms recently active in Arkansas, on communication of seismic hazard in the Pacific Northwest, on the project intended to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012, on the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, and on other topics.
March 14-15, 2011, Meeting of expert independent panel, Memphis, Tennessee
Noting the substantial uncertainties regarding the history and future of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone, in January, 2011 the NEPEC convened an Independent Expert Panel on New Madrid Seismic Zone Earthquake Hazard, and charged that eight-member panel with providing a report commenting on the level of hazard posed by future large earthquakes in the region, and on priorities for future research to better constrain that hazard. The panel met by phone several times in February, March and April, and also held a two-day meeting in Memphis, Tennessee in mid-March, in which they interviewed a number of key experts having different knowledge and perspectives on the issues. The panel plans to release a draft report for public comment on or about Monday, April 4, with comments to be received by email to NMSZpanel@gmail.com no later than Sunday, April 10. The NEPEC plans to receive and review the panel's report at its April 16 meeting (see above).
2010
November 3-4, 2010, Pasadena, California
NEPEC met to review plans and progress related to understanding, forecasting and communicating about earthquake occurrence in California, the Pacific Northwest, and the Central United States. The Council discussed forming subcommittees to focus on: (1) methods for rapidly estimating the probability of a large earthquake following a possible foreshock or during a swarm of seismicity, procedures by which Council findings are to be transmitted to the USGS, and the format and content of earthquake advisory statements that may be composed and delivered at times of heightened concern; (2) earthquake occurrence and forecasting in the Pacific Northwest; (3) the level of earthquake hazard in the Central and Eastern U.S.; and (4) review procedures for the project intended to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) in summer 2012.
Agenda (PDF)
Federal Register notice (PDF)
Background Materials:
- USGS Fact Sheet “Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern” (4.4MB)
- UCERF3 project plan draft v34 (1.1MB)
- Scientific Review Committee review of UCERF3 project plan draft v30 (135KB)
- New Madrid earthquake Bicentennial plans (57KB)
- Opinion “Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Some Thoughts on Why and How,” SRL 2010 (127KB)
- EarthScope workshop agenda, “Spectrum of Fault Slip Behaviors,” Oct., 2010 (1MB)
Presentations:
2009
November 4-5, 2009, Pasadena, California
On November 4, NEPEC met jointly with the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC), to review methods for rapidly estimating the probability of a large earthquake following a possible foreshock or during a swarm of seismicity, review and discuss procedures by which Council findings are to be transmitted to the USGS and to the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), and discuss the format and content of earthquake advisory statements that may be composed and delivered at times of heightened concern. Findings of an International Commission convened by the Italian government to provide advice on “operational earthquake forecasting” following the damaging L’Aquila earthquake of April 2009 was also presented. The Councils also discussed review procedures for the project intended to deliver an updated Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF) in summer 2012. On November 5, NEPEC discussed outcomes of the previous day’s meeting, planned topics to be explored by the Council in future meetings, and received briefings on previous discussion topics, including on scientific issues related to earthquake occurrence in New Madrid Seismic Zone, and an update on the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability.
Agenda (PDF)
Federal Register notice (PDF)
Background Materials:
- Executive summary of International Commission report on Operational Earthquake (139KB)
- USGS Fact Sheet “Earthquake Hazard in the New Madrid Seismic Zone Remains a Concern” (4.4MB)
Presentations:
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_01_Jordan_ICEF_sm.pdf (934KB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_02_CEPEC.pdf (106KB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_03_Vidale_Cascadia_issues.pdf (24.2MB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_04_Gomberg_Cascadia_processes.pdf (4.9MB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_05_Roeloffs_Cascadia_policy.pdf (57KB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_06_Jordon_UCERF3.pdf (7.3MB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_07_Jordon_CSEP.pdf (1.5MB)
- NEPEC_04-05Nov2009_08_Central-US.pdf (18.9MB)
July 2, NEPEC Subcommittee at CEPEC, Pasadena, California
A subcommittee of the NEPEC attended a meeting hosted by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC), at which attendees examined current understandings of earthquake activity and history, were briefed on new approaches for determining foreshock probabilities, and discussed the crafting of pre-event background scenarios for reference by CEPEC when considering the implications of a potential foreshock or a swarm of small earthquakes.
Agenda (PDF)
August 26, NEPEC Subcommittee at CEPEC, Pasadena, California
A subcommittee of the NEPEC attended a meeting hosted by the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC). Attendees reviewed current understandings of earthquake activity, reviewed approaches for calculating earthquake probabilities during an earthquake swarm, began the development of advisory language under various scenarios to present to the Director of CalEMA, and identified ways for CEPEC and NEPEC to more closely coordinate their activities.
Agenda (PDF)
2008
September 10-11, Palm Springs, California
The Council received briefings on the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF2) and relevant activities sponsored by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC); updates on the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) and on various proposed prediction methodologies; a report from a February, 2008 workshop on episodic tremor slip; and discussed issues related to the content and issuance of earthquake advisories.
Agenda (PDF)
Meeting summary (PDF)
Presentations:
- NEPEC_10Sept08_02_Tullis_SCEC-EFP.pdf (1.7MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_03_Tullis_Simulators2.pdf (0.7MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_04_Schorlemmer_CSEP-overview.pdf (1.1MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_05_Schorlemmer_CSEP-timeline.pdf (0.7MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_07_Blanpied_GEM.pdf (4.6MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_09_Roeloffs_ETS.pdf (7.4MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_10_Roeloffs_Advisories.pdf (0.6MB)
- NEPEC_10Sept08_11_Reichle_CEPEC-advisories.pdf (3.9MB)
2007
May 18, Portland, Oregon
Meeting focused on the science and hazard implications of episodic seismic tremor and fault creep detected in the Pacific Northwest from northern California to southern British Columbia. The Council received from scientists on the observations and tectonic context, and from emergency managers on the communication of research findings and their policy implications to governments and the public.
Agenda (PDF)
Meeting Summary (PDF)
Presentations:
- NEPEC_051807_01_Rogers-Mazzotti_ETS.pdf (1.1MB)
- NEPEC_051807_02_Schmidt_ETS.pdf (0.7MB)
- NEPEC_051807_03_Allen_ETS.pdf (2.0MB)
- NEPEC_051807_04_Vidale_ETS.pdf (0.4MB)
- NEPEC_051807_05_Melbourne_ETS-GPS.pdf (1.4MB)
- NEPEC_051807_06_Roeloffs_PBOstrain.pdf (1.0MB)
- NEPEC_051807_07_Ellsworth_Tokai-ext.pdf (0.5MB)
- NEPEC_051807_08_Dengler_Outreach.pdf (0.9MB)
- NEPEC_051807_09_Rogers_ETS-publicity.pdf (0.2MB)
- NEPEC_051807_10_Wilson_Communication.pdf (0.5MB)
- NEPEC_051807_11_Reichle_CEPEC.pdf (0.3MB)
- NEPEC_051807_12_Manning_EMperspective.pdf (1.7MB)
- NEPEC_051807_13_Wald_NEIC.pdf (1.0MB)
2006
Conference call March 4
This initial discussion of the newly seated Council included discussions of the reasons that the NEPEC was reestablished, scope of NEPEC activities, history of past NEPEC activities and reports, and potential topics for future briefings, meetings, and work.
Call summary (PDF)
May 4-5, Menlo Park, California
Initial meeting of the reconstituted Council included briefings on the Parkfield earthquake experiment, earthquake prediction research supported by NASA, the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), short-term aftershock hazard forecasting, and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probability (WGCEP).
Agenda (PDF)
Meeting summary (PDF)
Presentations:
- NEPEC_050406_Field-WGCEP.pdf (0.2MB)
- NEPEC_050406_Jones-STEP.pdf (1.2MB)
- NEPEC_050406_Jordan-CSEP.pdf (3.9MB)
- NEPEC_050406_LaBrecque-NASA.pdf (2.0MB)
- NEPEC_050406_Michael-Parkfield.pdf (2.4MB)
- NEPEC_050406_Michael-Prediction.pdf (0.8MB)
- NEPEC_050406_Reichle-CEPEC.pdf (0.3MB)
October 16-17, Riverside, California
The Council received briefings on the Regional Likelihood Methods (RELM) project, the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP), and the Working Group on California Earthquake Probability (WGCEP).
Agenda (PDF)
Meeting summary (PDF)
Presentations:
- NEPEC_101706_Felzer_WGCEP_seis.pdf (0.8MB)
- NEPEC_101706_Hudnut_SuperstitionHills.pdf (1.5MB)
- NEPEC_101706_Jackson_RELM.pdf (0.7MB)
- NEPEC_101706_Jordan_WGCEP_issues.pdf (69KB)
- NEPEC_101706_Jordan_WGCEP_questions.pdf (28KB)
- NEPEC_101706_Wills_WGCEP_faults.pdf (2.0MB)
Published paper: Mazzotti_Adams_Cascadia_BSSA_2004.pdf (175KB)
Conference call October 25
The participants discussed options for the Council’s role in the process of developing and reviewing the earthquake rupture forecasts to be delivered by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP).
Call summary (PDF)