By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 25, 2011
3:45 p.m. Friday, Aug. 26, Japan time: Nanmadol was upgraded to a super typhoon at 9 a.m. local Friday.
"It will affect us in one form or another," an official with Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight said Friday. Stated another way, it's still too early to tell how much, whether Nanmadol will make a direct hit on Okinawa or pass to the west or east; forecast models aren't in agreement at this point. Much depends on what Nanmadol's wingman, Tropical Storm Talas, does to its east, but the official said to be prepared for a wild middle of the week. Winds are already starting to pick up, but the meanest parts of Nanmadol should be felt "Tuesday and Wednesday, maybe into Thursday."
Even though Nanmadol is a small storm diameter-wise and is bumping up against the Philippines’ northernmost island of Luzon, Nanmadol’s eye is still over water, very nourishing ocean heat content. As a result, it’s forecast to become a very powerful storm – peaking at 161-mph sustained winds and 198-mph gusts Friday evening. By 9 a.m. Wednesday, Nanmadol is forecast to be about 310 miles southwest of Kadena, moving northeast and packing sustained 121-mph winds and 150-mph gusts at its center.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 24, 2011
6 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 25, Japan time: Nanmadol strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent typhoon on Thursday. And it looks as if Nanmadol, picking up strength as it languishes off the east coast of the Philippines, will affect Okinawa in one form or another by early next week.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track has Nanmadol churning roughly 210 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 3 p.m. Tuesday, and appearing to track southeast of the island.
That’s five days away, and computer forecast models aren’t agreeing on which way Nanmadol will head. One model has it barreling about 200 miles west of Okinawa, which would resemble the path taken by Songda, which pounded the island with 100 mph-plus winds in late May.
Worse, Nanmadol looks to have stalled east of the Philippines’ northern island of Luzon, over plenty of high ocean heat content. As one Kadena 18th Wing Weather Flight official said, it has “plenty of food” to nourish itself down there.
The next few JTWC warnings should give us a better idea which way Nanmadol’s headed.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Talas, the 15th storm of the northwest Pacific’s tropical cyclone season, spawned Thursday northwest of Guam, but doesn’t appear to be any threat to land.
Nanmadol, BTW, is Micronesian for a ruin on the island of Pohnpei, or the “Venice of the Pacific.” Talas is a Tagalog word meaning sharpness or acuteness.
7:15 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 24, Japan time: It's too early to tell, officials at Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight say, how much Tropical Storm Nanmadol will affect Okinawa, but it could make for a wild Monday, the first scheduled day of DODDS school on island.
The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has Nanmadol rumbling 194 miles southeast of Kadena at 3 p.m. Monday -- a 130-mile variation to the west in just under six hours. The track shows Nanmadol curving a tad west toward the Philippines before it's to recurve north-northeast toward Okinawa.
Everything depends on the next several forecast tracks and whether the computer forecast models come into agreement. And it's five days away, according to the latest projections. But start preparing now; in a worst-case scenario, we could see triple-digit winds for the third time this season.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 4, 2011
5 p.m. Saturday, Aug. 6, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch at 4:31 p.m. Saturday. This will be PST's last update on this storm.
You're free to go out now, but be cautious of your surroundings, considering the following which was posted just a bit ago on AFN Okinawa's Facebook page, by Helin:
Please take note of the following areas. Avoid them and stay safe!
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 4, 2011
An e-mail came across my desk asking about the eyes of tropical cyclones, whether it's OK to venture out in the eye even for a few minutes, to take a break from being cooped up indoors.
The answer: NO! Absolutely not. While it may seem peaceful and tranquil, danger lurks all around it, in the form of THE highest winds that a tropical cyclone can be packing at that moment.
Let's say the typhoon is moving west over Okinawa at 7 mph and the eye of the typhoon is 4 miles wide. That's about a 35-minute break from the wind, but you might not know that. It may appear as if the storm is over, but all of a sudden, the winds pick up fiercely in the opposite direction as before, and sometimes even more intense than before.
Bottom line: STAY INDOORS. Wait until the all-clear or return to seasonal TCCOR-4 is issued.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 3, 2011
Some frequenly asked questions, especially by folks new to the island, reviewed by officials at Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
Q. The TV, radio and other official agencies keep mentioning 50-knot winds or greater are forecast for such and such a time. Why is 50 knots the magic number?
A. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E is declared when damaging sustained 50-knot or 58-mph winds or greater are actually occurring. 50 knots is considered severe weather at any Air Force base, due to the frequency of structural and equipment damage when these winds occur, and damage assessments are usually required after such storms. From a less regulatory standpoint, with winds at that speed or higher, objects surrounding you that may seem benign and harmless can turn into dangerous projectiles. Branches get torn off trees and sent airborne, maybe against a car window or your backdoor. Trash cans, bicycles, flower pots, even small refrigerators can fit that category depending on the winds’ severity. It becomes difficult, if not impossible, to stand upright. Keeping a vehicle under control can be troublesome, if not out of the conversation altogether. That’s why the best advice when TCCOR 1-E is issued is to stay indoors.
Q. Should I tape windows or other outside-facing glass in my on-base quarters during a typhoon?
A. All on-base structures on Okinawa, especially newer ones, are virtually typhoon-proof, especially the windows. A staff civil on Kadena some years ago told me that on-base structures are designed to withstand sustained 198-mph winds for lengthy periods of time. Windows are treated and covered by a plastic film that can be easily damaged by tape.
Q. I’ve lived off base for a number of years, and during typhoons, I see the locals continuing to make their rounds in their vehicles, even when TCCOR 1-E is in effect. I mean, if they can go outside, why can’t we SOFA types?
A. Please see the above answer to 50 knot-58 mph winds being the magic number and how virtually anything can become a dangerous projectile during a typhoon. The 18th Wing commanding officer at Kadena Air Base issues TCCORs based on local conditions, and if the local conditions on base are considered dangerous, then the same should apply off base. Aside from it being spelled out in U.S. Forces Japan instructions and regulations, it’s simply common sense to stay out of danger, even if you’re an “old Okinawa hand” who’s lived on the economy for a number of years. The locals are used to it; they’ve lived here all their lives and have endured scores of such rodeos. Most SOFA types haven’t. Leave the danger to the locals.
Q. I PCSed to Okinawa a few weeks ago, and a handful of my co-workers told me about the high surf along the coasts during storms. I’m from California and I live to surf. Is it dangerous to do it during typhoons on Okinawa?
A. Very dangerous, because of a little thing called coral. The Ryukyu Islands are actually glorified coral reefs jutting out of the water for hundreds of miles southwest of Japan’s main islands. Coral differs sharply from conventional sand that you see and feel along the shores of the finest beaches in California, Florida, Hawaii and elsewhere. And coral has the consistency and texture of harshly coarse sandpaper, a much less forgiving surface than you’d find in those prime stateside locales. First time I went swimming on this island, at Manza Beach in 1983, my knees and elbows were scraped up big time. Then, there are coral growths that lurk below the water’s surface, which can cause untold harm should you wipe out while surfing or boogie boarding during a storm. Even sitting on shore at locales such as Zanpa or Maeda Misaki, a maverick wave can knock you off your purchase and pull you into the water.
Most of these answers have one thing in common: Stay indoors when TCCOR 1-E is declared. Better to be safe than sorry.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 3, 2011
10:15 a.m. Friday, Aug. 5, Japan time: Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E. One silver lining to all this is, we're getting plenty of rain here -- forecasts call for anywhere from 16 to 18 inches, which this island needs. Through 10:15 a.m., at least 7 inches of rain has fallen at Kadena Air Base, though one of the rain gauges was out for a couple of hours. A wind gust of 91 mph recorded at Kadena at 1:43 a.m. Friday.
According to Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track, Muifa will barrel 70 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at around noon Friday.
Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight's latest forecast:.
-- Wind gusts of 35 mph or greater: Occuring.
-- Wind gusts of 40 mph or greater: Occuring.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater: Occuring
-- Sustained winds of 58 mph or greater: through midnight Friday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 86-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts between 11 a.m.- 1 p.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph: midnight Friday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph: 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph: 11 p.m. Saturday.
1 p.m. Thursday, Aug. 4, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 1 p.m. local time. Winds of between 39 and 56 mph are now occuring. Time to make your way indoors before the really bad stuff hits.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 3, 2011
4:20 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Military installations on Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-2 at 4:10 p.m. local time. Sustained damaging winds of 58 mph or greater are expected in 24 hours. If you've not made that commissary run or cleaned up around office and home, do so, now!
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 3, 2011
1 p.m. Wednesday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Time to take care of those last-minute details before Muifa gets closer. Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-2 should be issued soon; at that point, many base services either shut down or begin to, such as trash pickup on Kadena Air Base.
Those staying or planning to stay at Okuma, it will close at 4 p.m. today in advance of Muifa's arrival. Okuma took a pounding last year from one typhoon; it closed for weeks for repairs.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track has Muifa rumbling 44 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 7 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at its center, which is pretty much the impact we’ll feel on island for a few hours come early Friday morning.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest forecast wind timeline:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, midnight Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 7 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 3 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 3 p.m. Thursday-5 a.m. Saturday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 127-mph sustained with 155-mph gusts, between 5 and 7 a.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 5 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, noon Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 4 p.m. Saturday.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR-2 sometime this afternoon and TCCOR-1 early Thursday morning.
Even though the track has varied to the southwest, Muifa's typhoon-strength winds extend 70 miles outside the eye and tropical storm winds 240 miles. That's diameters of 140 and 480 miles.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 2, 2011
10:40 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Muifa’s turn westward is complete, and it’s taking almost dead aim on Okinawa. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track calls for Muifa to plow 35 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center.
And that’s pretty much the proverbial, powerful smack in the mouth that Okinawa should feel for a few hours Friday morning, given Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest forecast wind timeline:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, midnight Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 8 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 3 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 3 p.m. Thursday-9 a.m. Saturday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 132-mph sustained with 161-mph gusts, between 3 and 6 a.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 9 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 5 p.m. Saturday.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3. Given the current timeline, expect an upgrade to TCCOR-2 sometime this afternoon and TCCOR-1 early Thursday morning.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 2, 2011
1:45 a.m. Wednesday, Aug. 3, Japan time: Looping rainbow infrared imagery from the National Weather Service shows Typhoon Muifa has finally begun making that curve northwest toward Okinawa. Forward speed has picked up a little, and the track has deviated southwest just a bit, but Muifa remains on course to make the next few days wild and wooly, to say the least.
The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has Muifa barreling 29 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 10 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. If it remains on course and as strong as advertised, Muifa should be the strongest typhoon Okinawa has experienced since Bart ravaged the island nearly 12 years ago.
Forecast wind timeline, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, midnight Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 9 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday-9 a.m. Saturday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 127-mph sustained with 150-mph gusts, between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 9 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, noon Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Saturday.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3. Expect an upgrade to TCCOR-2 sometime Wednesday afternoon or evening, with TCCOR-1 to follow early Thursday morning.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 2, 2011
8 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 2, Japan time: Muifa’s forward speed has slowed again, down to 7 mph. That’s always worrisome, for typhoons tend to relish extra nourishment over warmer, lower latitude waters. The proof is in the pudding, too; wind speeds anticipated for Okinawa have increased over the last six hours as a result.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track calls for Muifa to barrel 21 miles southwest of Okinawa at high noon on Friday. It’s forecast to be packing 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.
Forecast wind timeline, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, midnight Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 6 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday-6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 110-mph sustained with 150-mph gusts, between 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 6 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Saturday.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3. If you haven’t done so already, now’s the time to do a general cleanup around your home and office. Secure or store those trash cans, the kiddie toys and the trampoline. Time to move those bicycles indoors off the tower patios. Gas up the car. Visit the ATM; the power may remain off for a while after the typhoon has gone, so make sure you have cash, dollars and yen, on hand. Make that run to the commissary; don’t wait for TCCOR-2 and the last-minute rush, and make sure you have bottled water, flashlights, batteries, a portable radio and non-perishable food to last up to four days.
PST can’t emphasize enough: This storm is no joke. If it intensifies enough and ventures close enough to Okinawa, it could be the worst one the island’s experienced in at least a decade. Even if the track varies in either direction, typhoon-strength winds still extend 70 miles out from the eye, a 140-mile diameter, and tropical storm winds 240 miles out, a 480-mile diameter. Not to be toyed with lightly.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 2, 2011
5:15 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 2, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness-3 was declared for Okinawa at 4:30 p.m. Tuesday. Damaging sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 48 hours.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 2, 2011
4:25 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 2, Japan time: The wind timeline has shifted some. Muifa’s ferocity hasn’t ebbed, though. Already, wind is picking up on Okinawa, along with a handful of showers that may only be a harbinger of things to come in a couple of days.
Updated forecast wind timeline, courtesy of Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, 9 a.m. Thursday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, noon Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday-8 p.m. Friday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 98-mph sustained with 138-mph gusts, between 7 and 11 a.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 8 p.m. Friday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 8 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 1 p.m. Saturday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track calls for Muifa to strike 24 miles southwest of Kadena at 11 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.
The track has deviated 39 miles to the southwest over a 12-hour span, but according to a National Weather Service advisory on Guam, Muifa’s typhoon-force winds extend 70 miles out from the eye, and tropical storm-force winds 255 miles.
For fans of American Idol runner-up David Archuleta and the Futenma Flightline Fair scheduled this weekend, well, it's been called off and it's not known when/if it will be rescheduled. Sorry. :(
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 1, 2011
1 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 2, Japan time: Okinawa continues to display a big ol' bull's-eye on front and back. Briefly, expect sustained 58-mph winds or greater from 10 p.m. Thursday to 1 a.m. Saturday. Peak winds forecast to be 86-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts between 3 and 9 a.m. Friday. Muifa is forecast to pass 24 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 11 a.m. Friday. A more detailed timeline will be posted later today.
Here's an excellent resource and guide to typhoon preparedness, especially for folks new to the island, courtesy of Marine Corps Base Japan's Oki News Today:
Typhoons (tropical cyclones) are large storms originating in the Pacific. Because of our geographic location, Okinawa is susceptible to and threatened by several typhoons each year. Damaging effects of typhoons come from high wind speeds, heavy rains and storm surge. It is easy to protect yourself from typhoons; however, they can be deadly to those who do not take proper precautions.
Tropical Cyclone Conditions of Readiness (TCCOR).
TCCORs are graduated states of readiness based on the forecast onset of 50 knot (57 mph) winds. TCCORs are set by the 18th Wing commander, Kadena Air Base (TCCOR AUTHORITY PER U.S. Forces Japan instruction) for all military installations on Okinawa. TCCOR declarations are orders: take them seriously! Conditions may not look bad where you are, but they can change fast, and you can get caught in a violent storm without warning.
Changes to TCCOR are passed over AFN radio and TV. Look for "TC (X)" in the bottom left corner of the screen while watching AFN on base and Channel 21 for those off base with an AFN satellite dish and decoder box.
The following are the TCCOR actions:
. All Clear: No tropical storms are threatening Okinawa
o Exists from Dec. 1-May 31 unless a storm moves into the area.
o Keep your disaster supply kit together and rotate canned goods and water as needed.
. TCCOR 4 (TC 4): A storm could cause destructive winds of 58 mph or greater within 72 hours.
o Okinawa remains in TC 4 from June 1 to Nov. 30.
o Keep preparatory actions up to date and ensure you and your family know what to do if we go to higher TCCORs.
. TCCOR 3 (TC 3): A storm is in the area and is forecast to cause destructive winds within the next 48 hours. Take the following preparatory actions:
o Inventory your emergency supplies.
. Replace expired or used items.
. Ensure you have adequate water for yourself and your family.
. Check your flashlights and batteries and ensure everything works.
. Make sure your gas tanks (car and house) are full.
o Secure the larger, more difficult items in your yard.
. Children's play sets
. Trampolines
. Kiddie Pools
. Picnic tables
. Gas Grills
. Trash Cans and Recycle Bins
. Lawnmowers
o Monitor the storm's progress (links below)
. Be prepared to finish your storm preparations quickly.
. The storm could intensify or increase its movement quickly, pushing the island into a lower TCCOR than previously forecasted.
. TCCOR 2 (TC 2): A storm is approaching Okinawa and is forecast to cause destructive winds within the next 24 hours. Take the following precautions:
o Ensure all preparatory actions for TCCOR 3 are complete.
o Secure any loose items in your yard.
. Lawn Decorations
. Flower pots
. Anything that can cause debris.
o Withdraw emergency cash (dollars and yen) you will need before the storm. If electricity is down, cash machines may not work after the storm.
. TCCOR 1 (TC 1): A storm is approaching Okinawa and is forecast to cause destructive winds within the next 12 hours. Take the following precautions:
o Ensure all preparatory actions for TCCOR 3 and 2 are complete.
o Fill water containers for sanitation and drinking as needed.
. Two quarts per person per day for drinking.
. A gallon per person per day is a good amount to keep on hand for sanitation.
o Turn the temperature of your refrigerator/freezer to the coolest point and minimize the amount you open and close it. If power goes off, perishable foods will keep longer if they start at colder temperatures.
o Have a plan for your children.
o DO NOT TAPE WINDOWS OF ON-BASE QUARTERS! The windows are typhoon proof and are covered with a plastic film that is easily damaged by tape.
o Contact your unit if you're not confident of your off-base quarters' ability to stand up to the storm. If you don't feel secure, ask your supervisor, first sergeant, or commander to help you find suitable shelter on base.
. TCCOR 1 Caution (TC 1C): Hazardous winds will likely occur within the next 12 hours, and winds of 39-56 mph including gusts are occurring. Non-essential functions close and personnel are released. Take the following actions:
o Secure all doors and windows in your home and workplace if not already done.
o All personnel must stay inside until the 18th Wing Commander declares TCCOR Storm Watch, or a lower TCCOR. (Note: This applies to all Status of Forces Agreement status personnel and their dependents whether they live on base or off base. Personnel are to stay inside during TC-1C, TC-1E and TC-R.) Rapidly changing storm patterns could cause the island to move into TC 1 Emergency before previously forecast.
o Non-essential functions include, but aren't limited to:
. All AAFES
. MWR facilities, including child care facilities
. Commissaries
. USO
. DoDDS functions
. Child development centers.
. TCCOR 1 Emergency (TC 1E): 58-mph or greater winds and other dangerous conditions are present. All personnel must stay inside until the 18th Wing Commander declares TCCOR Storm Watch, or a lower TCCOR.
*It is important to note that local Camp Commander's have the authority to elevate or remain in a higher TCCOR condition based on local conditions (wind speed) or safety issues (down power lines, blocked roads etc.)
o Keep your emergency supplies handy. Your battery-powered radio and flashlights will be needed immediately if power goes out.
o STAY INSIDE!!! Continue monitoring the storm's progress and be prepared to remain in quarters for the duration of the storm. The storm could intensify or decrease its movement, subjecting the island to dangerous conditions longer than previously forecast.
. TCCOR 1 Recovery (TC 1R): Winds have decreased below 58 mph but life-threatening hazards may be present on base.
o Only personnel issued a mission-essential typhoon pass are allowed outside of their quarters on the condition of performing mission essential tasks.
o Non-essential functions remain closed
o Continue to monitor storm's progress
. STORM WATCH: Life-threatening hazards have been isolated or corrected, but damage may still exist. The base may still be experiencing some storm-related effects.
o Units and individuals assess damage to their facilities
o AAFES and Commissary facilities reopen after completing their damage assessment unless the Wing Commander directs otherwise.
o All military personnel and civilian employees report to work within 2 hours of the Storm Watch declaration, at their normal duty hours, or as directed by their commanders.
o Continue monitoring the storm's progress. The storm could return quickly, pushing the island back into TC 1, TC 1 Caution, or even TC 1 Emergency.
Things to have on hand for a Typhoon:
. Four day supply of food and water (bottled water, canned food, and other non-perishable items)
. Duct tape, Hammer and nails for quick repairs
. Blankets, tarps, plastic, and heavy cardboard to cover broken windows
. Mops and towels to absorb water leaks
. Flashlights with extra batteries, candles, matches and a waterproof lighter
NOTE: DO NOT LEAVE OPEN FLAMES UNATTENDED
. Battery operated portable radio and extra batteries
. Pet Food
. Charcoal/propane - in extended power loss, you may have to barbecue the contents of your freezer
. Medications/First Aid Kit
. Canned fuel (Sterno)
. Children's supplies: diapers and formula
*MONITOR AFN FOR FREQUENT UPDATES
*Meteorological Agency Websites:
http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/
http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/
http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/
EMERGENCIES: ON BASE: 911
CELPHONE: 098-911-1911
M. Michael Lacey
Regional Installation Emergency Manager
Director, MCBJ Emergency Operations Center
USFJ Base Cluster Operations Center - 5
Marine Corps Bases Japan, AC/S G-3
DSN: 315-645-7607/7222
Mobile: 080-2738-2276
From U.S.: 011-81-611-745-7607/7222
maurice.lacey@usmc.mil
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 1, 2011
1 a.m. Tuesday, Aug. 2, Japan time: A few changes to the forecast wind timeline provided by Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight, but not many. We’ll be feeling the big, bad breezes starting Wednesday afternoon, lasting all the way until Sunday morning.
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, 3 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 3 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 5 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 a.m.-6 p.m. Friday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 86-mph sustained with 132-mph gusts, between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 2 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, midnight Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 3 a.m. Sunday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s latest forecast track predicts Muifa will rumble 15 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at 11 a.m. Friday, packing sustained 121-mph winds and 150-mph gusts at its center. A note on that: Those forecast speed measurements are for over open water, not necessarily over land.
Expect upgraded tropical cyclone conditions of readiness to be issued starting Wednesday as Muifa gets ever closer.
Next update mid-day Tuesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 1, 2011
8:10 p.m. Monday, Aug. 1, Japan time: Muifa is wobbling further northeast than previously forecast, but it remains a dangerous Category III-equivalent typhoon and despite its varying direction, it still has Okinawa squarely in its crosshairs.
The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for Muifa to plow right over Okinawa, with the eye 9 miles northeast of Kadena Air Base at high noon Friday, packing sustained 127-mph winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest forecast wind timeline follows:
-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, 3 a.m. Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 9 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 6 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 a.m.-10 p.m. Friday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 86-mph sustained with 138-mph gusts, between noon and 3 p.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 6 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 8 p.m. Saturday.
Expect sea condition danger to be posted by Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall of 4 to 6 inches is forecast through Sunday afternoon. Expect accelerated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness starting Wednesday.
One good thing PST noticed this afternoon was people flocking to the Foster commissary early to stock up on storm supplies. Cases of bottled water flew off palates near the cash registers faster than they could be replaced. Good thing! Better that than to have folks wait until TCCOR-1 is declared and then thronging the commissary at the last minute.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: August 1, 2011
Excerpted and edited from a special message sent early by Oki News Today. Good info here.
TYPHOON WARNING
-------------------
Audience: All Units
August 1, 2011
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center has forecast that Typhoon 11W (Muifa) will pass 9 miles south of Kadena at 7 a.m. Friday as a Category 3-equivalent typhoon with winds sustained at 127 mph gusting to 155 mph.
With passage, expect damaging winds, coastal storm surge, heavy rain showers with possible flash flooding, and potentially severe thunderstorms to significantly impact the island. Okinawa should begin to feel effects of 11W as early as Wednesday with gusty winds over 40 mph and rain showers. Maritime operations in the vicinity of 11W will be impacted by high seas, extremely strong winds, and severe thunderstorms. Based on this forecast, all Marine Corps Bases Japan personnel should begin making storm preparations now in anticipation of this storm.
1. Always pay close attention to the sea conditions (caution as of 7 p.m. Monday) and refrain from taking part in any water activities as the storm approaches, and throughout the duration of the storm if it impacts Okinawa. Stay away from the coastline.
2. Secure equipment, supplies, and/or loose debris around your work areas prior to securing for the weekend and at your quarters when you return home.
3. Be familiar with tropical cyclone conditions of readiness and what they mean to you.
TCCOR 4: Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater possible within 72 hours.
TCCOR 3: Destructive winds possible within 48 hours.
TCCOR 2: Destructive winds anticipated within 24 hours.
TCCOR 1: Destructive winds anticipated within 12 hours.
TCCOR 1-C (caution): Winds between 39 and 56 mph are occurring/non-essential personnel stay indoors.
TCCOR 1-E (emergency): Destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are occurring/all movement secured/stay indoors.
TCCOR 1-R (recovery): Destructive sustained winds of 58 mph or greater are no longer occurring; actual winds are now between 39 and 56 mph. All personnel should remain indoors. Period of time to assess damage and create safe zones.
TCCOR STORM WATCH: Due to the close proximity of a tropical cyclone and/or erratic movements, the typhoon still poses a threat/remain indoors.
ALL CLEAR: Storm is over and not forecast to return. NOTE: Okinawa remains in seasonal TCCOR-4 between June 1 and November 30.
4. If you have not already done so, stock up on essential emergency items as a precaution (batteries, bottled water, candles, matches, lighter, flashlights, battery operated radio/TV, 1 week supply of non-perishable foods, baby formula, or any other items you may need).
5. Pay close attention to storm updates provided by AFN Wave 89.1-FM and Surf 648-AM, digital decoder Channel 21 off base, or other sources on the island throughout the weekend.
Point of contact for this message is Glen Andrews at 645-7280, or Mike Lacey at 645-7607.
