Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 21
Published: September 28, 2012
2:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 29, Japan time: Any time now, Okinawa should start feeling the full fury of Typhoon Jelawat as it makes that dogleg right toward the island, with the closest point of approach 9 miles north of Kadena Air Base around 2 p.m. Saturday. While Jelawat is gradually losing strength, the island is still bracing for sustained 115-mph winds and 138-mph gusts around mid-day, then Jelawat will pick up forward speed and high-tail it out of the area in relatively short order.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect upgrade to TCCOR 1-C (caution) very soon, followed by TCCOR 1-E (emergency) sometime after sunrise. Once the latter occurs, stay indoors until TCCOR Storm Watch is declared.
Latest forecast wind timeline for Okinawa courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, 2 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 5 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum sustained 115-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Saturday.
Kanto Plain: You’re next. Yokosuka Naval Base and Naval Air Facility Atsugi are in TCCOR 3 and Yokota Air Base in TCCOR 4; expect that to accelerate as Jelawat accelerates toward landfall over Hamamatsu around 9 p.m. Sunday. Yokosuka schools are already closed on Monday; Fleet Activities Yokosuka made that announcement Friday. Jelawat should pass 10 miles northwest of Yokota around 1 a.m. Monday, still packing sustained 75 mph winds and 92-mph gusts as it roars past.
Local Yokosuka forecast calls for south-southwesterly winds to start picking up Monday, 35- to 45-mph sustained and 55-mph gusts by evening, 45- to 55-mph sustained and 65-mph gusts overnight into Monday, 35- to 45-mph sustained and 55-mph gusts by early morning and decreasing from there. Won’t be quite as bad inland, but still pretty nasty a way to start the week.
