June 14, 1999 (The Editor’s Desk is updated each business day.)
BLS total employment projections
usually close
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has projected trends in total
employment fairly accurately since the 1960s, but the accuracy has not increased over
time.
[Chart data—TXT]
For three of the five periods shown in the chart, the projections of total employment
growth were very accurate. Projected and actual employment growth were equal for 1960-70,
at 20 percent. The 1980-90 employment projection (19 percent) was nearly identical to
actual growth (20 percent). Additionally, projected and actual employment growth were very
close for the 1960-75 period.
Projected and actual employment growth rates diverged the most over the latest period.
Employment was projected to increase by a relatively modest 15 percent from 1984-95; it
actually rose by 22 percent. There was also a sizable difference between projected and
actual growth for the 1968-80 period.
Data on projections are produced by the BLS Employment
Projections program. Find more information on the accuracy of employment projections
in "The quality of BLS projections: a
historical account," Monthly Labor Review, May 1999.
Of interest
Spotlight on Statistics: National Hispanic Heritage Month
In this Spotlight, we take a look at the Hispanic labor force—including labor force participation, employment and unemployment, educational attainment, geographic location, country of birth, earnings, consumer expenditures, time use, workplace injuries, and employment projections.
.
Read more »
|