By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 20, 2012
12:45 a.m. Thursday, June 21, Japan time: Looks as if Tropical Storm Talim is enough of a concern on Okinawa that a wind forecast timeline has been published by Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight. Destructive 58-mph winds and greater are not forecast to occur, thank goodness, and Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 (for now). Expect sustained 40-mph winds between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. today, with maximum sustained 35-mph winds and 52-mph gusts around 2 p.m. Talim is forecast to rumble 210 miles northwest of Okinawa at 4 p.m. Thursday. Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Kyushu remains in TCCOR Storm Watch, just as a precaution; Talim is forecast to scoot some 96 miles south of Sasebo at 6 a.m. Friday as a severe tropical depression.
9:20 p.m. Wednesday, June 20, Japan time: Unless something changes drastically, expect Tropical Storm Talim to knife its way northeast between Taiwan and China, 250 miles north-northwest of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Thursday and 113 miles south-southeast of Sasebo Naval Base around 3 a.m. Friday, packing moderate tropical storm-strength 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts at its center. Each area should get a moderate dusting of banana winds before rapidly jetting along the coasts of Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu and exiting into the northwest Pacific, much as Typhoon Guchol did earlier this week. While we're not expecting a major hammerblow, it wouldn't hurt to pick up that tricycle and roll it indoors, just in case. If you can pick it up, so can a tropical cyclone. :)
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 19, 2012
7 p.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: Guchol was downgraded to a tropical storm as it rapidly pushed ashore at midafternoon Tuesday southeast of Kyoto and Osaka in Japan’s Kansai region. It’s now making its way through the mountain ranges of Central Honshu, giving the Kanto Plain area a good dusting as it plows northeast at 41 mph toward its eventual demise.
Guchol should degrade into a severe tropical depression overnight, packing 35-mph sustained winds and 46-mph gusts at its center as it rumbles 115 miles northwest of Yokosuka Naval Base, 92 miles northwest of Naval Air Facility Atsugi and Camp Zama, 84 miles northwest of Yokota and 51 miles northeast of Camp Fuji between midnight Tuesday and 2 a.m. Wednesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 19, 2012
3 p.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: Yokosuka Naval Base issued Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 at 3 p.m. local time. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 12 hours.
By Staff
Published: June 19, 2012
2:30 p.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: As Typhoon Guchol continues to move towards mainland Japan, the commissary at Yokosuka Naval Base decided to close early, among other precautionary steps there.
The commissary will close at 3 p.m. and the auto port will close at 5 p.m., according to the base.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 18, 2012
12:30 p.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: PST is still keeping its beady eyes on ever-weakening Typhoon Guchol as it barrels toward Kyoto, while Tropical Storm Talim continues lurking between Hainan and Taiwan well to Okinawa’s southwest. More on Talim below.
First, Guchol. Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 this morning, effective until 3 p.m. at which point we’ll likely see TCCOR 1. Forecasts call for winds increasing to 35- to 45-mph sustained and 55-mph gusts this evening into early Wednesday morning, decreasing to 25 to 30 with 40-mph gusts by late morning, dropping to 20 to 25 with 35-mph gusts Wednesday evening into Thursday, then gradually diminishing.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 18, 2012
We tried this a year ago with some very, very interesting comments. Ever been stranded at the Kadena AMC terminal during a typhoon? Caught outside the base with the gates locked after TCCOR 1-E was issued? Lost power in your apartment or home for 40-plus hours? Have your home flood or be forced to flee to higher ground because of a typhoon? What about those back in the States who worried about relatives on Guam or Okinawa or in Japan because they’d not heard from them for days? Anybody left out here who endured the awful devastation of Super Typhoon Bart on Okinawa in 1999 and Super Typhoon Pongsona on Guam in 2002? Sound off! Tell your tale of typhoon woe here at PST. I’d be interested to hear some of the things that have befallen our Pacific crew, particularly the long-timers.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 17, 2012
8 a.m. Monday, June 18, Japan time: As if Guchol wasn't enough, now another tropical depression has formed southwest of Hong Kong, and initial Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for it to turn northeast and roll at rather high speed north of Okinawa as a moderate tropical storm on Wednesday and rapidly over the Kanto Plain as a tropical depression on Friday. Too early to say what effect it will have on either area; the system is very close to land and conditions aren’t very favorable for development. Details as we get ’em.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 16, 2012
1:30 a.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: Okinawa reverted to seasonal Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 1:02 a.m., Kadena Air Base officials announced.
12:30 a.m. Tuesday, June 19, Japan time: As my pal Stormy over at Fleet Activities Okinawa said last evening, Typhoon Guchol had potential. Movement of a half-degree left and it would have been a greatly different story for the island.
As it was, Okinawa took a relatively light dusting as Guchol roared 81 miles east-southeast of Okinawa at 10 p.m. Monday, raking the island with 37-mph sustained winds and 52-mph gusts; .7 inches of rain fell during its visit.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 13, 2012
11 p.m. Saturday, June 16, Japan time: Joint Typhoon Warning Center upgraded Guchol to super typhoon status with its 23rd warning on the storm issued just awhile ago. JTWC forecasts Guchol to peak at 173-mph sustained winds and 207-mph gusts at its center Sunday into Monday morning. As it rambles past Okinawa, 100 miles east-southeast at 10 p.m. Monday, those winds will diminish slightly, 155-mph sustained and 190-mph gusts at its center. We should get an updated wind forecast timeline from Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight in an hour or so.
8:20 p.m. Saturday, June 16, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 7:48 p.m. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 48 hours.
Typhoon Guchol continues to strengthen and is expected to become a super typhoon overnight Saturday. The silver lining: The latest forecast track from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center projects Guchol to rumble even further east than earlier forecast, 95 miles east-southeast of Kadena Air Base at around 9 p.m. Monday.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight’s latest forecast wind timeline follows:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 11, 2012
Midnight Tuesday, June 12, Japan time: Tropical storm Guchol continues tracking directly west and has slowed as it passes to Guam's southwest. Latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track calls for Guchol to knife 360 miles southwest of Okinawa around 9 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 92-mph winds and 115-mph gusts, equal to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Still too early to say if it will curve northeast toward Okinawa or continue west. Keep it here.
Noon Tuesday, June 12, Japan time: Still too early to tell, 18th Wing Weather Flight officials say, whether 05W, upgraded to a tropical storm this morning, will curve toward Okinawa or continue west between Okinawa and the Philippines. And it’s still five or more days away from Okinawa even if it does curve north-northeast toward us.
The fifth Joint Typhoon Warning Center warning on 05W indicates it will be 440 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base at 9 a.m. Sunday, packing sustained 104-mph winds and 127-mph gusts at its center, equal to a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 5, 2012
3 p.m. Tuesday, June 5, Japan time: All clear at Yokosuka, folks. Fleet Activities Yokosuka reverted to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness All-Clear at 8:01 a.m. according to a base spokesman.
Wednesday’s forecast calls for north-northeasterly winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the early afternoon as Typhoon Mawar rumbles a good 260 miles east of Yokosuka around 3 p.m. Wednesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 4, 2012
7:45 a.m. Tuesday, June 5, Japan time: Okinawa reverted to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 7:30 a.m. local. Typhoon Mawar still has Yokosuka in TCCOR 4. Forecasts call for 35-mph gusts Wednesday afternoon in the Yokosuka area.
4 p.m. Monday, June 4, Japan time: Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3, Yokosuka Naval Base in TCCOR 4.
18th Wing Weather Flight forecasts continue to call for maximum 52-mph sustained winds and maximum 63-mph gusts between 6 and 9 a.m. Tuesday. Typhoon Mawar is forecast to pass 125 miles south-southeast of Okinawa at 7 a.m. Tuesday as a category 1-equivalent storm. Expect between 6 to 8 inches of rain associated with Mawar.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 3, 2012
9 a.m. Monday, June 4, Japan time: In case you’ve been wondering, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center has been having trouble with its Web page and is unable to update its products as a result.
Yokosuka Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at 7:45 a.m. Monday.
Latest from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight is: Typhoon Mawar is forecast to pass 125 miles southeast of Okinawa this evening or early tomorrow morning. Forecasts call for maximum sustained 46-mph winds with maximum 63-mph gusts between 11 p.m. Monday and 9 a.m. Tuesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 3, 2012
7 p.m. Sunday, June 3, Japan time: Typhoon Mawar has edged a bit further east than previous forecasts projected. While that means the winds won’t be quite as fierce for Okinawa, it’ll still be a very windy, gusty Monday evening and early Tuesday morning.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center now forecasts Mawar to rumble 140 miles south-southeast of Okinawa at 6 a.m. Tuesday. Kadena Air Base 18th Wing Weather Flight officials project sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts between 11 p.m. Monday and 2 a.m. Tuesday at Mawar churns past.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 3, 2012
For those new to the Pacific, typhoons are not named for men and women as they are in the States. Long about 10 years ago, they changed out here to a system of assigning different words contributed by Asian nations. Some of those names, such as Saomai, which twice in a seven-year span devastated the areas it struck, was retired and replaced with another name. Typhoon Mawar, currently bearing down on Okinawa, is a Malaysian word for rose. Thorny, indeed. Get a full look at all typhoon names by clicking here.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 3, 2012
2:30 p.m. Sunday, June 3, Japan time: Likelihood of stronger winds for Okinawa has increased. 18th Wing Weather Flight now projects sustained 52-mph winds and 63-mph gusts between 11 p.m. Monday and 7 a.m. Tuesday as Typhoon Mawar rumbles 130 miles south-southeast of Okinawa. At 9 a.m., Mawar was 631 miles south-southwest of Kadena Air Base, moving slowly north-northeast at 7 p.m.
Precipitation will be hard to gauge, weather flight officials said; mostly rainbands and thunderstorms are associated with Mawar (having flown from Manila to Osan yesterday, I saw that for myself, a whole armada of anvil-headed systems headed northeast).
By Dave Ornauer
Published: June 2, 2012
10 p.m. Saturday, June 2, Japan time: Mawar, the fourth numbered storm of the Northwest Pacific’s Tropical Cyclone season, was upgraded to typhoon status at 6 p.m. Japan time Saturday. Okinawa entered tropical cyclone condition of readiness 3 at 10 p.m. Saturday.
Officials at Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight forecasting peak gusts of 36 mph along with showers associated with Mawar’s outer bands as it rumbles 143 miles southeast of Okinawa at 1 p.m. Tuesday.
