Energy Demand
U.S. average energy use per person
declines through 2035
Growth in U.S. energy use is linked to population growth through increases
in demand for housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing,
and services. This affects not only the level of energy use, but also the
mix of fuels and consumption by sector. Energy consumption per person has
declined sharply during the recent economic recession, and the 2009 level
of 310 million Btu per person was the lowest since 1968. In the AEO2010 Reference case, energy use per capita increases slightly as the economy
rebounds, then begins declining in 2013 as higher efficiency standards
for vehicles and lighting begin to take effect (Figure 39). From 2013 to
2035, energy use per capita declines by 0.3 percent per year on average,
to 293 million Btu in 2035.
Energy intensity (Btu of energy use per dollar of real GDP) also falls
as a result of structural changes and efficiency improvements. Since 1990,
a growing share of U.S. output has come from services and less from manufacturing.
In 1990, 74 percent of the total value of output came from services, 6
percent from energy-intensive manufacturing industries, and the balance
from the non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries (e.g., agriculture,
mining, and construction). In 2008, services accounted for 78 percent of
total output and energy-intensive manufacturing only 5 percent. Services
continue to play a growing role in the Reference case, accounting for 82
percent of total output in 2035, with energy-intensive manufacturing accounting
for less than 4 percent. In combination with improvements in energy efficiency,
the shift away from energy-intensive industries pushes overall energy intensity
down by an average of 1.9 percent per year from 2008 to 2035.
Buildings and transportation sectors lead increases in primary energy use
Total primary energy consumption, including fuels for electricity generation,
grows by 0.5 percent per year from 2008 to 2035, to 114.5 quadrillion Btu
in 2035 in the Reference case (Figure 40). The fastest growth (1.0 percent
annually) is in the commercial sector, which currently has the smallest
share of end-use energy demand but surpasses the residential sector by
the end of the period. Growth in commercial sector energy use is propelled
by growth in population (0.9 percent per year) and commercial floorspace
(1.3 percent per year), but it is constrained somewhat by tightening efficiency
standards.
Energy use for transportation grows by 0.6 percent per year in the Reference
case. LDVs have accounted for more than 16 percent of total U.S. energy
consumption since 2002; however, their share declines to 15.5 percent in
2020, when the average fuel economy of new LDVs is required by EISA2007
to reach 35.5 mpg. Growth in energy consumption by LDVs averages 0.4 percent
per year from 2008 to 2035.
Energy consumption in the industrial sector grows only modestly through
2035, as U.S. output continues to shift toward less energy-intensive industries.
Use of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) feedstocks in the production of ethylene,
propylene, and ammonia, which contributes to the small increase, declines
after 2020 as output from the chemical industry falls. Energy consumption
in the refining sector also grows, as liquids consumption increases and
more biofuels are produced to meet the RFS required by EISA2007.
Renewable sources lead rise in primary energy consumption
Consumption of all fuels increases in the Reference case, but the aggregate
fossil fuel share of total energy use falls from 84 percent in 2008 to
78 percent in 2035 as renewable fuel use grows rapidly (Figure 41). The
renewable share of total energy use increases from 8 percent in 2008 to
14 percent in 2035, in response to the EISA2007 RFS, expansion of Federal
tax credits for renewable electricity generation and capacity, and State
RPS programs.
In the transportation sector, where almost all liquid biofuels are used,
petroleum’s share of liquid fuel use declines as consumption of alternative
fuels (biodiesel, E85, and ethanol for blending) increases. Biofuels account
for more than 80 percent of the growth in liquid fuel consumption.
Overall, natural gas consumption grows by about 0.2 percent per year from
2008 to 2035, despite declines of about 1.5 percent per year from 2008
through 2014, when coal-fired power plants now under construction or planned
begin operation, and Federal tax credits and State RPS programs spur additions
of new electricity generation capacity fired by renewable fuels.
Coal consumption increases by 0.4 percent per year in the Reference case.
Several coal-fired power plants, with combined capacity totaling 15.6 gigawatts,
are planned to come on line by 2012. More coal is consumed for heat and
power in the CTL process, offsetting declines in coal consumption for coking
and other industrial uses.
Residential energy use per capita varies with technology assumptions
Residential energy use per capita continues declining in the AEO2010 Reference
case, to 16 percent below the 2008 level in 2035 (Figure 42). One cause
of the decline is a decrease in energy use for space heating due to a projected
shift in State populations from colder to warmer regions. The reduced demand
for home heating fuels is offset in part by increased demand for electric
air conditioning.
Recent improvements in household energy efficiency have been offset by
growth in square footage and the introduction of new electric appliances.
Three alternative cases show the potential role of energy-efficient technologies
in defining household energy use. The 2009 Technology case assumes no change
in efficiency for equipment or building shells beyond 2009 levels. The
High Technology case assumes more purchases of energy-efficient appliances
by consumers, and earlier availability, lower cost, and higher efficiency
for some advanced electric devices. The Best Available Technology case
limits purchases of new appliances to the most efficient available and
assumes that new home construction applies the most energy-efficient criteria
among today’s common building practices.
In the 2009 Technology case, household energy use per capita falls by 10
percent from 2008 to 2035, as gains in energy efficiency are limited to
stock turnover and more efficient new construction. With greater gains
for appliances and building shells in the High Technology and Best Available
Technology cases, household energy use per capita declines by 30 percent
and 39 percent, respectively, from 2008 to 2035.
Miscellaneous uses dominate growth in electricity demand
Electricity accounted for 41 percent of total residential delivered energy
consumption in 2008, and in the AEO2010 Reference case that portion increases
to 48 percent in 2035. The increase in electricity consumption results
from a proliferation of new electric devices. Comparatively few new devices
powered by natural gas or liquids have emerged in recent decades, and few
are anticipated in the Reference case. Electric appliances have become
increasingly prevalent, and that trend continues as demand grows for large-screen
televisions (TVs) and other electric devices.
Electricity use for TV sets and set-top boxes surpasses that for refrigerators
in 2010. Set-top boxes, including digital video recorders, are needed
to decode digital signals from cable or satellite providers and to convert
digital signals for older analog TVs. TVs on the market today vary significantly
with respect to power draw, depending on technology and screen size. The
technology continues to evolve, and improvements in efficiency are expected
with the introduction of light-emitting diode (LED) backlighting for TV
screens and with new efficiency standards adopted in California.
Other electrically powered services include a range of appliances and devices
whose consumption, while small individually, is significant in the aggregate
(Figure 43). Electricity use for “other” devices— including microwave ovens,
video and audio equipment, game systems, spas, security systems, and coffee
makers—increases on average by 1.9 percent per year in the Reference case—slightly
more than the 1.6-percent annual growth in residential floorspace.
New approaches to energy efficiency standards show potential for gains
The energy efficiency of residential appliances plays a key role in determining
the amount of energy used in buildings. In recent years, the implementation
of Federal standards has fallen behind legislated schedules, leading States
and other groups to become more active in promoting residential energy
efficiency. In 2009, industry and efficiency advocate groups agreed on
a set of regional standards to supplant the national standards currently
in place. The new standards would divide the Nation into three regions
based on climate characteristics for furnaces, heat pumps, and central
air conditioners [80].
The absence of appliance standards has implications for energy use. Neither
televisions nor set-top boxes are covered by Federal standards today, although
some efficiency gains have been realized through voluntary programs, such
as Energy Star. In the absence of standards, electricity use for personal
computers and related equipment (e.g., printers, modems, and routers) grows
at roughly the same rate as population in the Reference case.
The potential effects of new efficiency standards are most evident for
lighting (Figure 44). Federal standards included in EISA2007 will require
general-service lighting to use about 30 percent less electricity by 2014
for the same level of light output. In 2020, the standard is tightened
further, requiring general-service lighting to use 60 percent less electricity
than today’s incandescent bulbs. Overall, in the AEO2010 Reference case,
electricity use for lighting per household in 2035 is 44 percent lower
than in 2008.
Tax credits encourage installation of renewable technologies
More than one-half of the States have either binding RPS or nonbinding voluntary
targets for renewable energy generation. The recent enactment of Federal
ITCs for distributed renewable technologies through 2016 provides the greater
assurance necessary for market development that will help States achieve
their renewable energy goals.
The AEO2010 Reference case assumes that Federal tax credits for distributed
renewable technologies will expire as scheduled. The Extended Policies case
shows the implications of extending the tax credits indefinitely. Whereas
total installed PV capacity reaches 9.5 gigawatts in 2035 in the Reference
case, it grows to 60.5 gigawatts in 2035 in the Extended Policies case.
The comparatively smaller distributed wind turbine market is similarly affected,
with 8.1 gigawatts installed in the Extended Policies case, as compared
with 1.7 gigawatts in the Reference case, in 2035.
Ground-source heat pumps are more energy efficient—but also more expensive—than
conventional technologies. In the Reference case, implementation of current
incentives increases the number of installations from 47,000 units in 2008
to an average of more than 150,000 units per year through 2016, when the
Federal tax credit expires. Even with the increase in installations, however,
the market share of ground-source heat pumps is only 2.3 percent in 2035
in the Reference case, up from 0.3 percent in 2008 (Figure 45). In the
Extended Policies case—with the tax credit extended through 2035—the market
share nearly doubles, to 4 percent in 2035.
Efficiency improvements could lower projected consumption growth
Growth in commercial floorspace averages 1.3 percent per year from 2008
to 2035 in the AEO2010 Reference case, exceeding the 0.9-percent average
for population growth over the period. Delivered commercial energy use
per person remains virtually constant, however, as efficiency improvements
largely offset the increase in commercial floorspace (Figure 46). Recently
updated standards for lighting and refrigeration account for much of the
efficiency improvement. More stringent building codes in ARRA further improve
building efficiency in the long term.
Three alternative cases show the effects of different assumptions about
technology and energy efficiency on energy consumption per capita. The
2009 Technology case limits equipment and building shell technologies to
the options available in 2009. The High Technology case assumes lower costs,
higher efficiencies for equipment and building shells, and earlier availability
of some advanced equipment than in the Reference case, as consumers place
greater importance on the value of future energy savings. The Best Available
Technology case assumes more improvement in the efficiency of building
shells than in the High Technology case and limits future equipment choices
to a technology menu that includes only the most efficient model for each
type of technology available in a particular year, regardless of cost.
In 2035, commercial energy consumption per capita is 4.8 percent higher
in the 2009 Technology case than in the Reference case, and in the High
Technology and Best Available Technology cases it is 12.5 percent and 17.5
percent lower than in the Reference case, respectively.
Electricity leads expected growth in commercial energy use
Purchased electricity use accounts for 59 percent of all commercial delivered
energy consumption in 2035 in the Reference case, up from 54 percent in
2008. Despite growth in natural gas use for CHP, the natural gas and liquids
share of commercial energy use declines as the efficiency of building and
equipment stocks improves and demand for new electronic equipment continues
to grow.
Major commercial end uses, such as space heating and cooling, water heating,
and lighting, are covered by Federal and State efficiency standards, limiting
growth in consumption to rates less than the 1.3-percent annual growth
in commercial floorspace (Figure 47). Other electric end uses, some of
which are not subject to Federal standards, account for most of the growth
in commercial electricity consumption.
Although the number of computers and related devices (such as monitors
and printers) grows more rapidly than floorspace, with increasing purchases
and use of Energy Star equipment their electricity use grows at less than
half the rate of floorspace. As reliance on the Internet for information
and data transfer increases, electricity use for “other” office equipment—including
servers and mainframe computers—surpasses that for commercial refrigeration
in 2018. Refrigeration is one of the few commercial end uses for which
electricity use declines in the Reference case, primarily as a result of
new efficiency standards. Electricity demand for other miscellaneous end
uses (e.g., video displays and medical devices) increases by an average
of 2.3 percent per year and, in 2035, accounts for 40 percent of end-use
electricity consumption in the commercial sector.
Technology provides potential energy savings in the commercial sector
Delivered energy consumption for space heating, cooling, and water heating
grows at an average annual rate of 0.4 percent in the Reference case, as
compared with 1.3-percent annual growth in commercial floorspace. The remaining
end uses in the commercial sector grow by 1.2 percent per year as a group
in the Reference case, but by only 0.5 percent in the Best Available Technology
case.
Lighting improvements have consistently been a source of efficiency gains,
as standards for fluorescent lamps and ballasts, incandescent reflector
lamps, and metal halide lamp fixtures have reduced their electricity consumption.
Incandescent bulbs, which already are less common in the commercial sector,
are nearly eliminated by 2014 as compliance with EISA2007 lighting standards
increases. Significant potential for further improvement remains, as shown
by the Best Available Technology case (Figure 48); however, many of those
best available technologies, such as LED lighting, currently are too costly
to be practical in many commercial applications.
The energy efficiency of refrigeration equipment improves significantly
in each of the cases, as a result of EPACT2005 and EISA2007 standards,
which are in place for a wide range of commercial equipment that accounts
for a significant share of the sector’s total electricity use for refrigeration.
Additional efficiency improvements could come from the actions of States
applying their own equipment standards for end uses not covered by Federal
mandates. In addition, at the Federal level, new research and development
funding from ARRA may lead to efficiency improvements in communication and
information technology devices.
Tax credits, advanced technologies could boost distributed generation
Recent legislation has extended or increased the ITCs for distributed generation
technologies and removed the cap on credits for wind-powered generation.
In the Reference case, tax credits boost the near-term expansion of distributed
generation in the commercial sector, and its growth remains strong in later
years as technology costs decline, conversion efficiency improves, and
electricity prices increase.
PV capacity benefits from a 30-percent ITC through 2016 and reverts to
a 10-percent credit thereafter (Figure 49). Conventional natural-gas-fired
turbines and engines account for the next-largest capacity increase, followed
by microturbines and fuel cells. Wind power also benefits from the ITC,
growing by 8.7 percent per year. Conventional CHP technology receives a
10-percent tax credit through 2016. Comparatively expensive fuel cells receive
a 30-percent ITC capped at $3,000 per kilowatt.
In the Reference case, commercial distributed generating capacity grows
from 2 gigawatts in 2008 to almost 10 gigawatts in 2035. In the Extended
Policies case, which assumes that the ITC provisions are extended through
2035, total commercial generating capacity increases by 17 gigawatts. PV technology
benefits the most from the extension of the ITC provisions in the Extended
Policies case, with installed capacity in 2035 that is 125 percent higher
than in the Reference case. After 2016, with the extension of the ITC,
wind power capacity in the commercial sector grows the fastest, averaging
more than 16 percent per year from 2016 to 2035.
Heat and power energy consumption increases in manufacturing industries
Industrial delivered energy consumption increases by 8 percent from 2008
to 2035 in the AEO2010 Reference case—despite a 44-percent increase in
industrial shipments—as a result of slow growth or declines in energy-intensive
manufacturing output and strong growth in high-value (but less energy-intensive)
industries, such as computers and electronics. In the chemical industry,
output declines by nearly 10 percent from 2008 to 2035 in the face of rising
energy prices and pressure from overseas competition.
In 2008, about two-thirds of delivered energy consumption in the industrial
sector was used for heat and power in manufacturing; that share increases
to three-quarters in 2035 (Figure 50). Heat and power consumption in the
nonmanufacturing industries (agriculture, mining, and construction) remains
constant over the projection, accounting for about one-sixth of total industrial
energy consumption. The remaining consumption consists of nonfuel uses
of energy products, primarily as feedstocks in chemical manufacturing and
asphalt for construction.
The rise in manufacturing heat and power consumption in the AEO2010 Reference
case can be attributed primarily to a relatively large 36-percent increase
in total energy use for the refining industry (although the value of shipments
produced by the refining industry grows by only 11 percent over the same
period). The strong growth in fuel use for refining results from higher
industrial demand for lighter feedstocks, changes in the production mix
as demand for diesel fuels increases, a shift by refineries from lighter
to heavier crude oils, and growth in biofuels production.
Use of fuels as feedstocks declines in the chemical industry
The use of fuels for feedstock in the industrial sector involves the consumption
of fuels as raw materials for the production of various chemicals, as well
as the consumption of asphalt and road oil for the building of roads in
the construction industry. Most of the consumption of fuel-based feedstocks
occurs in the chemical industry, primarily for the production of ethylene,
propylene, and butadiene—three chemicals that are basic to the production
of a variety of plastic products.
Feedstock consumption trends in the AEO2010 Reference case reflect a switch
from petrochemical feedstocks (naphtha and gas oils) to LPG feedstocks
(ethane, butane, and propane) and a decline in basic chemical production.
The shift occurs because of a growing divergence between more rapidly rising
crude oil prices, which are the basis for petrochemical feedstock prices,
and the slow pace of increase in natural gas prices—the primary basis for
LPG prices.
From 2008 to 2035, total energy use as a feedstock declines by 6 percent
in the industrial sector (Figure 51). Virtually all the decline is in the
use of natural gas feedstocks, which drops by 21 percent as domestic production
of ammonia, hydrogen, and methanol slows. Domestic ammonia production falls
by 6 percent as a result of slow growth in agricultural production and
foreign competition in the ammonia industry. Domestic outputs of hydrogen
and methanol decline even more, by 74 percent and 32 percent, respectively.
Consumption of asphalt and road oil remains flat in the Reference case,
reflecting slow growth in the construction industry.
Over time, more fuels are brought into the mix of industrial energy use
Liquid fuels and natural gas currently account for about two-thirds of
industrial delivered energy use, and electricity, coal, and renewables
make up the remainder (Figure 52). With fuel-switching opportunities often
limited to boilers, kilns, and some feedstocks, changes in fuel shares
tend to reflect long- term transitions among the mix of industries and
capital investment. Although their use is declining, liquid fuels and natural
gas are the leading industrial fuel sources throughout the projections.
Almost one-half of industrial liquid fuel consumption is for use as a feedstock
for the production of petrochemicals. Another large portion (28 percent)
is generated as byproduct fuel and consumed at refineries. The decline
in industrial use of liquid fuels and natural gas reflects a drop in chemical
production, which accounted for a large share of industrial use of the
two fuels (excluding natural gas lease and plant fuel) in 2008.
Increased coal use for CTL production more than offsets a decline in traditional
industrial applications of coal, such as steam generation and coke production,
largely because of environmental concerns about emissions from coal-fired
boilers, along with improvements in manufacturing efficiency that reduce
the need for process steam. Metallurgical coal use also declines, reflecting
a decline in steel industry output and the greater penetration of electric
arc furnaces.
The flat outlook for industrial electricity use reflects efficiency gains
in many industries, due in part to motor efficiency standards. In addition,
consumption of renewable energy in the industrial sector expands with expected
growth in the lumber, paper, and other industries that consume biomass-based
byproducts.
Output growth is strongest for food and non-energy-intensive industries
Industrial shipments vary across the AEO2010 economic growth cases, both
in aggregate and by industry. Total industrial shipments grow by 44 percent
from 2008 to 2035 in the Reference case, as compared with 16 percent in
the Low Economic Growth case and 74 percent in the High Economic Growth
case. Near-term industrial activity is slowed by the economic recession,
however, with shipments from 2008 to 2011 lower for most industries and
in particular for iron and steel, cement, aluminum, transportation equipment,
and machinery.
A few energy-intensive manufacturing industries account for a large share
of total industrial energy consumption. Ranked by their 2008 total energy
use, the top five energy-consuming industries—bulk chemicals, refining,
paper, steel, and food—accounted for about 60 percent of total industrial
energy consumption but only 22 percent of total value of shipments. From
2008 to 2035, four of those top five industries (with food products being
the exception), as well as the other energy-intensive industries (glass,
cement, and aluminum) grow more slowly than the non-energy-intensive industries
(Figure 53).
The relatively slow growth of energy-intensive manufacturing industries
in the Reference case results from increased foreign competition, reduced
domestic demand for the raw materials and basic goods they produce, and
movement of investment capital to more profitable areas of the economy.
Energy consumption growth varies widely across industry sectors
The projections for industrial energy consumption vary by industry (Figure
54) and are subject to considerable uncertainty. Industrial delivered energy
consumption grows by 8 percent from 2008 to 2035 in the Reference case,
declines by 9 percent in the Low Economic Growth case, and increases by
25 percent in the High Economic Growth case.
In absolute terms, the most significant changes in energy use are in the
three largest energy-consuming industries: bulk chemicals, iron and steel,
and refining. For the first two, declines in energy use in most cases
reflect changes in competition from countries with access to less expensive
energy sources, as well as changes in product mix. Energy consumption in
the refining industry increases—despite a relatively flat trend in overall
petroleum demand—given the industry’s needs to process heavier crude oils,
comply with low-sulfur fuel standards, and produce biofuels as mandated
in EISA2007. Energy use also increases in the food and paper and pulp industries,
where rising shipments reverse recent declines. For the cement, aluminum,
and “other nonmanufacturing” industries, delivered energy consumption declines,
primarily as a result of relatively slow output growth and long-term changes
in production technology.
Aggregate industrial energy intensity, or consumption per real dollar of
shipments, declines in all three cases. When a higher rate of economic
growth is assumed the decline is more rapid, because non-energy-intensive
output grows relatively more rapidly: 1.4 percent in the High Economic Growth
case, as compared with 1.2 percent in the Reference case and 1.0 percent
in the Low Economic Growth case.
Growth in transportation energy use slows relative to historical trend
From 2008 to 2035, transportation sector energy consumption grows at an
average annual rate of 0.6 percent (from 27.9 quadrillion Btu to 32.5 quadrillion
Btu), slower than the 1.3-percent average rate from 1980 to 2008. The slower
growth is a result of changing demographics, improved fuel economy, and
increased saturation of personal travel demand.
Energy demand for LDVs increases by 10 percent, or 1.7 quadrillion Btu
(0.8 million barrels per day), from 16.7 quadrillion Btu in 2008 (Figure
55). Slower growth in fuel prices compared with recent history and rising
real disposable income combine to increase annual VMT. Delivered energy
consumption by LDVs is tempered by fuel economy improvements that result
from more stringent standards for vehicle fuel economy and CO2 emissions.
Energy demand for heavy-duty vehicles (including freight trucks and buses)
increases by 37 percent, as a result of only slow improvement in fuel economy
and modest increases in industrial output.
Energy demand for air travel increases by 24 percent, or 0.6 quadrillion
Btu (0.3 million barrels per day), from 2.6 quadrillion Btu in 2008. Growth
in personal air travel is driven by increases in income per capita and
relatively low fuel costs; however, gains in aircraft fuel efficiency and
slow growth in air freight movement (caused by slow growth in imports)
combine to slow the increase in fuel use by aircraft. Energy consumption
for marine and rail travel increases slightly as industrial output rises
and demand for coal transport grows. Energy use for pipelines increases
as growing volumes of natural gas and biofuels are transported.
New CAFE and emissions standards boost vehicle fuel efficiency
Light trucks (pickups, SUVs, and vans) have claimed a rising share of U.S.
LDV sales since the 1970s, peaking at over 55 percent of new LDV sales in
2004 before dropping to just over 47 percent in 2009 [81]. Thus, despite
technology improvements, average fuel economy for new LDVs ranged between
24 and 26 mpg from 1995 to 2006 after peaking at 26.2 mpg in 1987, then
rose to 26.6 mpg in 2007 with higher fuel prices and introduction of tighter
fuel economy standards.
NHTSA and EPA have proposed attribute-based CAFE and emissions standards
for MY 2012 to 2016. In the Reference case, the average fuel economy of
new LDVs (including credits for AFVs and banked credits) rises from 29
mpg in 2011 to 34 mpg in 2016 and 35.6 mpg in 2020, averaging 3.1 percent
per year from 2011 to 2016 and 1.2 percent per year from 2016 to 2020 (Figure
56). EISA2007 requires an average of 35 mpg in 2020.
LDV sales in 2035 are about 19 million units in all the AEO2010 cases,
but the mix of cars and light trucks varies. In the Reference case, cars
represent 66 percent of sales in 2035, and LDV fuel economy averages 40
mpg. In the High Oil Price case, cars are 69 percent of sales in 2035,
and LDV fuel economy averages 43 mpg. In the Low Oil Price case, cars are
57 percent of sales in 2035, and LDV fuel economy averages 37 mpg. Economics
of fuel-saving technologies improve in the High Technology and High Oil
Price cases, and consumers buy more efficient vehicles. But average fuel
economy improves modestly, because the CAFE standards assumed in the two
cases already require significant improvement in fuel economy performance
and the penetration of advanced technologies.
New technologies promise better vehicle fuel efficiency
In the AEO2010 Reference case, the fuel economy of new LDVs improves from
27.6 mpg in 2008 to 40.0 mpg in 2035. Market adoption of advanced technologies
facilitates the improvement in fuel economy that will be needed to meet
new, more stringent CAFE standards (Figure 57).
In 2035, advanced drag reduction, which provides significant fuel economy
improvements by reducing vehicle air resistance at higher speeds, is implemented
in nearly 99 percent of new LDVs. With the adoption of light-weight materials
that reduce vehicle mass, the average weight of new cars declines from
3,264 pounds in 2008 to 3,112 pounds in 2035, providing significant improvements
in fuel economy. In addition, adoption of advanced transmission technologies,
such as continuous variable and automated manual transmissions, grows from
5 percent of the LDV market in 2008 to 43 percent in 2035.
Camless valve activation, which reduces engine friction and allows for
infinitely variable valve timing and lift, increases engine efficiency by
approximately 14 percent. After its introduction in 2020, camless valve
activation is implemented in 30 percent of the LDVs marketed by 2035. Other
technologies that improve fuel economy—including turbocharging, supercharging,
and cylinder deactivation—increase from a 5-percent share of new LDV sales
in 2008 to 57 percent in 2035. Improvements in accessories, such as the
replacement of mechanical pumps with electric pumps that increase fuel
economy by up to 1.5 percent, are implemented in 24 percent of new LDV
sales in 2035, as compared with 0.1 percent of new LDV sales in 2008.
Unconventional vehicle technologies approach 50 percent of sales in 2035
With more stringent CAFE standards and higher fuel prices, unconventional
vehicles (vehicles that use alternative fuels, electric motors and advanced
electricity storage, advanced engine controls, or other new technologies)
account for nearly 50 percent of new LDV sales in 2035 in the Reference
case. Unconventional vehicle technologies play a significant role in meeting
the new NHTSA CAFE standards for LDVs.
FFVs represent 41 percent of unconventional LDV sales in 2035 (Figure 58),
the largest share among unconventional vehicle types. Manufacturers currently
receive incentives for selling FFVs, through fuel economy credits that
count toward CAFE compliance. However, due to limitations on gasoline blending,
FFVs will also play a critical role in meeting the RFS mandate for biofuels.
Although these credits are phased out by 2020, FFVs make up more than 20
percent of all new LDV sales in 2035, in part because of their increased
availability.
Four types of hybrid vehicle are expected to be available for sale by 2035:
standard gasoline-electric or diesel-electric hybrid (HEV), plug-in hybrid
with an all-electric range of 10 miles (PHEV-10), plug-in hybrid with an
all-electric range of 40 miles (PHEV-40), and micro hybrid (MHEV). MHEVs,
in which the gasoline engine is turned off only when switching to battery
power when the vehicle is idling, represent 53 percent of hybrid LDV sales
and 13 percent of new LDV sales in 2035. HEVs have the second-largest share,
at 37 percent of hybrid LDV sales. PHEV-10s make up 9 percent and PHEV-40s
make up 2 percent of all hybrid LDV sales in 2035 in the Reference case,
or about 500,000 PHEVS in total.
Market Trends Notes |
