Released: August 2, 2012

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Released: June 25, 2012

The complete version of Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) which, in addition to the Reference case projections, includes 29 alternative cases which show how different assumptions regarding market, policy, and technology drivers affect projections of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. (archived versions)

Released: April 26, 2011

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Released: August 25, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: MIT-NESCAUM Endicott House; Boston, MA

Released: May 11, 2010

ARRA, signed into law in mid-February 2009, provides significant new Federal funding, loan guarantees, and tax credits to stimulate investments in energy efficiency and renewable energy. The provisions of ARRA were incorporated initially as part of a revision to the AEO2009 Reference case that was released in April 2009, and they also are included in AEO2010.

Released: May 11, 2010

Growth in U.S. energy use is linked to population growth through increases in demand for housing, commercial floorspace, transportation, manufacturing, and services. This affects not only the level of energy use, but also the mix of fuels and consumption by sector.

Released: May 11, 2010

Realized improvements in energy efficiency generally rely on a combination of technology and economics [47]. The figure below illustrates the role of technology assumptions in the AEO2010 projections for energy efficiency in the residential and commercial buildings sector. Projected energy consumption in the Reference case is compared with projections in the Best Available Technology, High Technology, and 2009 Technology cases and an estimate based on an assumption of no change in efficiency for building shells and equipment.

Released: May 11, 2010

Energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of real GDP) indicates how much energy a country uses to produce its goods and services. From the early 1950s to the early 1970s, U.S. total primary energy consumption and real GDP increased at nearly the same annual rate (Figure 17). During that period, real oil prices remained virtually flat. In contrast, from the mid-1970s to 2008, the relationship between energy consumption and real GDP growth changed, with primary energy consumption growing at less than one-third the previous average rate and real GDP growth continuing to grow at its historical rate. The decoupling of real GDP growth from energy consumption growth led to a decline in energy intensity that averaged 2.8 percent per year from 1973 to 2008. In the AEO2010 Reference case, energy intensity continues to decline, at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent from 2008 to 2035.

Released: March 31, 2009

The Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (Public Law 110-343), which was signed into law on October 3, 2008, incorporates EIEA2008 in Division B. Provisions in EIEA2008 that require funding appropriations to be implemented, whose impact is highly uncertain or that require further specification by Federal agencies or Congress, are not included in AEO2009.

Released: March 11, 2007

For the industrial sector, EIAs analysis and projection efforts generally have focused on the energy-intensive industriesfood, bulk chemicals, refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminumwhere energy cost averages 4.8 percent of annual operating cost. Detailed process flows and energy intensity indicators have been developed for narrowly defined industry groups in the energy-intensive manufacturing sector. The non-energy-intensive manufacturing industries, where energy cost averages 1.9 percent of annual operating cost, previously have received somewhat less attention, however. In AEO2006, energy demand projections were provided for two broadly aggregated industry groups in the non-energy-intensive manufacturing sector: metal-based durables and other non-energy-intensive. In the AEO2006 projections, the two groups accounted for more than 50 percent of the projected increase in industrial natural gas consumption from 2004 to 2030.

Released: February 22, 2007

Sustained high world oil prices and the passage of the EPACT2005 have encouraged the use of agriculture-based ethanol and biodiesel in the transportation sector; however, both the continued growth of the biofuels industry and the long-term market potential for biofuels depend on the resolution of critical issues that influence the supply of and demand for biofuels. For each of the major biofuelscorn-based ethanol, cellulosic ethanol, and biodieselresolution of technical, economic, and regulatory issues remains critical to further development of biofuels in the United States.

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Released: February 1, 2005

Compared with the experience of the 1990s, rising energy prices in recent years have led to questions about expectations of growth in industrial output, particularly in energy-intensive industries. Given the higher price trends, a review of expected growth trends in selected industries was undertaken as part of the production of AEO2005. In addition, projections for the industrial value of shipments, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system in AEO2004, are based on the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) in AEO2005. The change in industrial classification leads to lower historical growth rates for many industrial sectors. The impacts of these two changes are highlighted in this section for two of the largest energy-consuming industries in the U.S. industrial sectorbulk chemicals and pulp and paper.

Released: July 1, 2002

This paper describes the methodology used to develop the NEMS estimate of projected aggregate energy efficiency and to describe the results of applying it to the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) reference case.

Released: June 1, 2002

This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System.