‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2012

Release Date: June 25, 2012   |  Next Early Release Date: January 23, 2013  |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2012)

Comparison with other projections

Table 26. Comparison of natural gas projections, 2015, 2025, and 2035 (trillion cubic feet, except where noted)
  Other Projections
Projection 2010 AEO2012
Reference case
IHSGI EVA Deloitte SEER ExxonMobil INFORUM
  2015
Dry gas productiona 21.58 23.65 23.81 23.80 24.52 23.66 24.00 24.29
Net imports 2.58 1.73 1.62 2.20 1.30 1.73 1.20 --
Pipeline 2.21 1.56 -- 1.80 1.22 1.56 -- --
LNG 0.37 0.16 -- 0.40 0.08 0.16 -- --
Consumption 24.13 25.39 25.52 26.60 24.07b 26.05 25.00c 23.61b
Residential 4.94 4.85 4.64 4.90 4.86 4.91 8.00d 4.87
Commercial 3.20 3.33 3.10 3.20 3.23 3.41 -- --
Industriale 6.60 7.01 6.64 7.00 7.51 7.64 8.00 --
Electricity generatorsf 7.38 8.08 9.02 9.30 8.46 8.06 9.00 --
Othersg 2.01 2.12 2.11 2.20 -- 2.04 -- --
Henry Hub spot market price
(2010 dollars per million Btu)
4.39 4.29 4.75 4.07 4.25 4.28 -- --
End-use prices
(2010 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 11.36 10.56 11.82 -- -- 11.68 -- --
Commerical 9.32 8.82 9.88 -- -- 8.31 -- --
Industrialh 5.65 5.00 6.95 -- -- 4.63 -- --
Electricity generators 5.25 4.65 5.20 -- -- 5.17 -- --
  2025
Dry gas productiona 21.58 26.28 27.23 26.70 27.32 25.88 27.00 27.57
Net imports 2.58 -0.79 2.13 1.30 0.38 0.29 1.50 --
Pipeline 2.21 -0.13 -- 0.90 0.29 1.03 -- --
LNG 0.37 -0.66 -- 0.40 0.09 -0.74 -- --
Consumption 24.13 25.53 29.39 29.00 26.36b 27.10 29.00c 23.43b
Residential 4.94 4.76 4.53 5.00 5.05 4.71 8.00d 4.90
Commercial 3.20 3.44 3.15 3.30 3.46 3.53 -- 3.60
Industriale 6.60 7.14 6.52 7.70 7.58 7.47 8.00 8.20
Electricity generatorsf 7.38 7.87 12.78 10.50 10.27 9.27 13.00 6.74
Othersg 2.01 2.31 2.42 2.50 -- 2.12 -- --
Henry Hub spot market price
(2010 dollars per million Btu)
4.39 5.63 4.82 6.47 5.80 6.29 -- --
End-use prices
(2010 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 11.36 12.33 11.70 -- -- 14.40 -- --
Commercial 9.32 10.27 9.81 -- -- 10.68 -- --
Industrialh 5.65 6.19 6.99 -- -- 6.96 -- --
Electricity generators 5.25 5.73 5.28 -- -- 7.47 -- --
-- = not reported.
See notes at the end of table.
  2035
Dry gas productiona 21.58 27.93 31.35 -- 27.87 27.00 26.00 30.71
Net imports 2.58 -1.36 2.36 -- 0.14 -0.46 2.50 --
Pipeline 2.21 -0.70 -- -- 0.07 0.07 -- --
LNG 0.37 -0.66 -- -- 0.08 -0.74 -- --
Consumption 24.13 26.63 33.54 -- 27.30b 27.24 29.00c 24.66b
Residential 4.94 4.64 4.38 -- 5.03 4.80 7.00d 4.83
Commercial 3.20 3.60 3.18 -- 3.60 3.64 -- 3.83
Industriale 6.60 7.00 6.35 -- 7.31 7.30 8.00 8.00
Electricity generatorsf 7.38 8.96 16.90 -- 11.37 9.37 14.00 8.09
Othersg 2.01 2.43 2.72 -- -- 2.13 -- --
Henry Hub spot market price (2010 dollars per million Btu) 4.39 7.37 5.13 7.26 6.63 7.70 -- --
End-use prices
(2010 dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Residential 11.36 14.33 11.81 -- -- 17.15 -- --
Commercial 9.32 11.93 9.99 -- -- 13.09 -- --
Industrialh 5.65 7.73 7.22 -- -- 9.20 -- --
Electricity generators 5.25 7.37 5.62 -- -- 9.75 -- --

-- = not reported.
aDoes not include supplemental fuels.
bDoes not includes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.
cDoes not includes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel.
dNatural gas consumed in the residential and commercial sectors.
eIncludes consumption for industrial combined heat and power (CHP) plants and a small number of industrial electricity-only plants, and natural gas-to-liquids heat/power production; excludes consumption by nonutility generators.
f Includes consumption of energy by electricity-only and CHP plants whose primary business is to sell electricity, or electricity and heat, to the public. Includes electric utilities, small power producers, and exempt wholesale generators.
gIncludes lease, plant, and pipeline fuel and fuel consumed in natural gas vehicles.
hThe 2010 industrial natural gas price for IHSGI is $6.53.