Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 20
Published: September 28, 2012
7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 28, Japan time: The winds won’t be quite as fierce as my last missive indicated, but these are still deadly serious Category 2-equivalent winds, 121-mph sustained and 138-mph gusts forecast for mid-morning Saturday. Typhoon Jelawat is forecast to make a near-direct hit on Kadena Air Base, 7 miles north at 2 p.m., and roll through the area rather quickly. Time for preparation is over. Okinawa is now in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1; expect quick upgrades to that as the night progresses.
Latest forecast wind timeline as provided by Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds or greater, 10 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds or greater, 11 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 4 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 121-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 10 a.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Saturday.
Though it’s forecast to move rapidly northeast after that, Kanto Plain U.S. bases won’t get off so lightly. Jelawat is forecast to make landfall around midnight Sunday between Hamamatsu and Shizuoka, after which U.S. bases should get an early morning filled with rain squalls and 80-mph winds and gusts up to 92. Most U.S. bases have entered or will enter TCCOR 3 shortly.
