Overview
Using Futures Prices to Forecast the Season-Average
Price and Counter-Cyclical Payment Rate for Corn, Soybeans, and
Wheat
Farmers and policymakers are interested in the level of
counter-cyclical payments (CCPs) provided by the 2008 Farm Act to producers of selected
commodities. CCPs are based on the season-average price received by
farmers. (For more information on CCPs, see the ERS 2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side, Title I:
Commodity Programs.)
This data product provides three Excel spreadsheet models that
use futures prices to forecast the U.S. season-average price
received and the implied CCP for three major field crops (corn,
soybeans, and wheat). Users can view the model forecasts or create
their own forecast by inserting different values for futures
prices, basis values, or marketing weights. Example computations
and data are provided on the Documentation page.
Spreadsheet Models
For each of the three major U.S. field crops, the Excel
spreadsheet model computes a forecast for:
- the national-level season-average price received by farmers
and
- the implied counter-cyclical payment rate.
Note: the model forecasts are not official USDA
forecasts. See USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
for official USDA season-average price forecasts. See USDA's Farm Service Agency information for official
USDA CCP rates.