California's Move Toward E10 |
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In AEO2009, E10—a gasoline blend containing 10 percent ethanol—is assumed to be the maximum ethanol blend allowed in California RFG, as opposed to the 5.7-percent blend assumed in earlier AEOs. The 5.7-percent blend had reflected decisions made when California decided to phase out use of the additive methyl tertiary butyl ether in its RFG program in 2003, opting instead to use ethanol in the minimum amount that would meet the requirement for 2.0 percent oxygen content under the CAA provisions in effect at that time [35]. Recently, there has been a push in California to increase the use of ethanol, for two reasons. First, the RFS mandate in EISA2007 Title II, Subtitle A [36], requires greater use of renewable fuels, such as ethanol. Second, California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) mandates a reduction in the State’s overall GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 and require a 10-percent reduction in GHG emissions from passenger vehicles by 2020. Although fuel providers can use a variety of strategies to produce lower carbon fuel, increasing the ethanol blends from 5.7 percent to 10 percent is thought to be a first step toward achieving the LCFS goals. In fact, in October 2008, CARB released its first draft of the LCFS regulatory framework [37]. The calculation in the framework assumes that the baseline emissions for gasoline in 2010 (from which CO2 emissions must be reduced in later years) will be from E10 (California RFG with 10 percent ethanol content), implying that most, if not all, gasoline sold in California by 2010 will be E10. Modifications were made to California’s RFG regulations and the predictive model that estimates emissions for different fuel mixes in order to increase ethanol blends above 5.7 percent. The predictive model was revised to accommodate the higher ethanol blends in determining evaporative and exhaust emissions, providing the information needed by fuel providers to increase ethanol content. For example, the increased ethanol content will result in higher NOx emissions, and the increase must be mitigated by lowering the fuel’s sulfur content. Refineries in California may have to make substantial modifications to produce compliant fuel under the new standards (most significantly, producing fuel with only 5 parts per million sulfur), and all fuel sold in California must be compliant with the new CARB Phase 3 standards after December 31, 2009. The final approved modifications in CARB Phase 3 gasoline and the revisions in the predictive model provide refiners and importers of fuel a formal framework with which to provide compliant fuel. Already, at least one major refiner has stated that it will apply the amended CARB Phase 3 gasoline standards, presumably to increase ethanol content.
35. The requirements for reformulated gasoline can be found in the 1990 Amendments to the Clean Air Act, Title II, Sec. 219 (web site www.epa.gov/oar/caa/caaa. txt). An excellent discussion of the history of oxygenate and other environmentally-based requirements for gasoline can be found in U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Fuel Trends Report: Gasoline 1995-2005, EPA420-R-08-002 (Washington, DC, January 2008), web site www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/rfg/properf/ 420r08002.pdf. 36. Congressional Research Service, Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007: A Summary of Major Provisions, Order Code RL34294 (Washington, DC, December 2007), web site http://energy.senate.gov/ public/_files/RL342941.pdf. 37. California Air Resources Board, “Low Carbon Fuel Standard Workshop: Review of the Draft Regulation” (October 16 2008), web site www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/ lcfs/101608lcfsreg_prstn.pdf.
Contact: Peter Gross
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