Released: September 11, 2012

Short-term petroleum supply, demand, and price projections.

Released: September 19, 2011

International petroleum projections through 2035

Released: April 26, 2011

Petroleum projections to 2035.

Released: April 26, 2011

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Released: April 12, 2011

Projection of motor gasoline prices, supply, and demand for the upcoming summer driving season.

Released: March 17, 2011

Presented by: Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, to: Committee on Natural Resources, United States House of Representatives; Washington, DCMarch 17, 2011

Released: February 10, 2011

Presented by Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration; to Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, United States Senate; Washington, D.C.February 3, 2011

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Released: May 11, 2010

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: April 1, 2010

EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Released: October 6, 2009

EIA Measures Price Uncertainty in Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Released: March 31, 2009

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Released: June 30, 2008

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that rise or result in a significant downturn.

Released: June 26, 2008

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Released: April 8, 2008

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

Released: November 6, 2007

Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: April 19, 2007

A presentation exploring the factors driving higher prices, margins, and light-heavy price differentials in today's market, and what these observations may imply about future profitability in the refining industry.

Released: March 27, 2007

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that EIA conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

Released: March 19, 2007

A presentation at the 2007 NPRA Annual Meeting focusing on trends in the diesel market. The presentation reviews the status of the ULSD program and highlights recent changes and trends in the distillate market that point towards continued strength in diesel prices relative to gasoline for some time.

Released: February 22, 2007

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Released: September 12, 2006

This presentation was given at the New York Energy Forum on September 5, 2006. It explores the reasons behind rising oil prices over the last few years and discusses whether the drop in oil prices seen in late August and early September 2005 is the start of a long-running trend or is only a temporary decline.

Released: August 7, 2006

This presentation at the 2006 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference in North Falmouth, Massachusetts, outlined EIA's current forecast for U.S. crude oil, distillate, propane and gasoline supply, demand, and markets over the coming winter season.

Released: August 6, 2006

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Released: July 1, 2006

This supplement to the July 2006 ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) examines the various factors that have contributed to this summers high gasoline prices and discusses how they may continue to impact markets over the next several months.

Released: February 1, 2006

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Released: February 1, 2006

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Released: October 12, 2005

The presentation provides background on distillate supply and demand, and then focuses on how hurricanes Katrina and Rita impact on refining capacity might affect winter fuels.

Released: July 13, 2005

EIA representatives participated in two Energy Policy Forums sponsored by Congressman Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania on July 6 and 7, 2005. EIA's presentation covered trends, underlying factors, and EIA's outlook for retail gasoline prices.

Released: March 14, 2005

A presentation to the NPRA Annual Meeting discussing the major factors that drove petroleum prices, price differentials, and margins in 2004, and what this might mean for refiners as we look towards the future.

Released: February 18, 2005

A presentation to the National Association of State Energy Officials 2005 Energy Outlook Conference, in Washington, DC, on February 17, 2005, giving EIA's outlook for petroleum and natural gas supply, demand, and prices.

Released: February 9, 2005

A presentation to the 7th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference, in Orlando, Florida, on February 3, 2005, giving EIA¿s outlook for petroleum supply and prices, with particular attention to jet fuel.

Released: February 1, 2005

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Released: August 10, 2004

Presented by: Doug Macintyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Presented to: Council of State Governments Eastern Regional Conference Springfield, MA August 10, 2004

Released: July 7, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Government Reform Committee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC July 7, 2004

Released: June 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources United States Senate Washington, DC June 15 , 2004

Released: May 1, 2004

On May 11, 2004, Senator Landrieu asked EIA to evaluate SA.2028. This paper responds to that request, relying on the modeling methodology, data sources, and assumptions used to analyze the original bill, as extensively documented in EIA's June 2003 report.

Released: April 27, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: CSIS - US Saudi Arabian Business Council US - Saudi Relations and Global Energy Security April 27, 2004

Released: April 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: North American Energy Summit April 15, 2004

Released: March 4, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate Washington, DC March 4, 2004

Released: March 1, 2004

Presentation by Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration NPRA Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 2004

Released: February 12, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources Committee on Resources U.S. House of Representatives February 12, 2004

Released: September 15, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of State Energy Officials Austin, Texas September 15 , 2003

Released: May 19, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: IOGCC Conference Williamsburg, Virginia May 19, 2003

Released: May 4, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: The Committee On Energy And Commerce U. S. House Of Representatives Washington, DC May 4 2003

Released: April 1, 2003

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2003/04. It was given at the 2003 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Asheville, NC on August 11, 2003.

Released: March 1, 2003

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the potential effect/role of implementation of a national menu of fuels to address the proliferation of boutique fuels.

Released: August 21, 2002

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.

Released: August 1, 2002

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.

Released: March 18, 2002

Presented by: John Cook Presented to: NPRA Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 18, 2002

Released: March 1, 2002

This assessment of the economic impacts of CAFÉ standards marks the first time EIA has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to NEMS in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

Released: February 11, 2002

Presented to: Tithe 4th International Jet Fuel Conference February 11, 2002

Released: August 1, 2001

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2001/02. It was given by Doug MacIntyre at the 2001 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Wilmington, DE on August 13, 2001.

Released: July 1, 2001

This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.

Released: June 14, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs United States House of Representatives June 14, 2001

Released: June 14, 2001

Statement of John Cook Before the Committee on Government Reform Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs U.S. House of Representatives June 14, 2001

Released: May 10, 2001

Presentation by Douglas MacIntyre and Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: May 1, 2001

This report discusses the implications of the new regulations for vehicle fuel efficiency and examines the technology, production, distribution, and cost implications of supplying diesel fuel to meet the new standards.

Released: April 25, 2001

On April 25, Dr. John Cook, Petroleum Division Director in the Office of Oil and Gas, testified on West Coast gasoline prices before the Senate Subcommittee on Consumer Affairs , Foreign Commerce, and Tourism. This Subcommittee is under the jurisdiction of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Dr. Cook provided the Subcommittee with information on the current gasoline price situation as well as identified unique characteristics of the West Coast gasoline market that help make its gasoline prices generally higher than other regions of the United States.

Released: March 30, 2001

Summary Statement of John Cook Director Petroleum Division Energy Information Administration Department of Energy before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce U.S. House of Representatives March 30, 2001

Released: March 21, 2001

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Presented to: Senate Energy And Natural Resources Committee United States Senate March 21, 2001

Released: February 1, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas February 26, 2001

Released: January 26, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: National Governors' Association January 26, 2001

Released: January 12, 2001

Presented by: Mark J. Mazur, Acting EIA Administrator January 12, 2001

Released: December 18, 2000

Presentation to the National Conference of State Legislators by Mark Masur, Acting Administrator

Released: September 28, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration Before the Committee on Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power U.S. House of Representatives September 28, 2000

Released: September 15, 2000

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: PPMCSA Annual Meeting and Trade Show September 15, 2000

Released: September 7, 2000

Presented by: Mark Rodekohr Presented to: The New England Council & Governor's Conference Boston, MA September 7, 2000

Released: September 7, 2000

Presentation by Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 7, 2000

Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 1, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources U.S. Senate September 26, 2000

Released: July 27, 2000

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division; EIA's Office of Oil and Gas July 27, 2000

Released: July 13, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Director Petroleum Division; Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources United States Senate July 13, 2000

Released: July 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

Released: June 29, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Director Petroleum Division; Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Governmental Affairs U.S. Senate June 29, 2000

Released: May 24, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC May 24, 2000

Released: May 11, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator San Diego, CA May 11, 2000

Released: May 1, 2000

In response to the President's request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of the energy markets in the Northeast

Released: April 18, 2000

Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: April 7, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Providence, RI April 7, 2000

Released: April 1, 2000

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division EIA's Office of Oil and Gas April 18, 2000

Released: March 24, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 24, 2000

Released: February 24, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Petroleum Division Director, Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate February 24, 2000

Released: July 21, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Staff Subcommittee on Gas San Francisco, CA July 21, 1999

Released: May 19, 1999

Phase 2 of the U.S. reformulated gasoline program begins at the end of this year. This article, published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, April 1999, provides a forecast and analysis of the demand and price for Phase 2 reformulated gasoline for the year 2000.

Released: January 28, 1999

Statement of Jay Hakes Administrator, Energy Information Administration Department of Energy Before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee U.S. Senate January 28, 1999

Released: October 1, 1998

A Briefing Paper on the Energy Information Administration's Analysis and Report Prepared for the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives

Released: May 1, 1998

Assesses the 1997 late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

Released: July 1, 1994

Provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 designed to reduce ground-level ozone will increase the demand for reformulated motor gasoline in a number of U.S. metropolitan areas. This article discusses the effects of the new regulations on the motor gasoline market and the refining industry.

Released: August 1, 1993

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 established a new, sharply lower standard for the maximum sulfur content of on-highway diesel fuel, to take effect October 1, 1993.