NHC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Verification
Updated 1 March 2012
Contents
- Introduction
- Forecast verification procedures
- Annual NHC verification reports
- Official five-year mean errors and distributions
- Official error trends
- Model error trends
- NHC official forecast error database
- Performance measures and goals
- References
3. Annual NHC verification reports
Links are given below to the historical annual NHC verification reports
from 1968-2011. The statistics contained in these reports were based on forecast and verification procedures in place
at the time each report was written, which often differ from current practices (e.g., depressions were not verified
in these annual reports until 2001). In addition, there have been changes in the tropical cyclone best track database
over the years (e.g., the upgrade of 1992's Hurricane Andrew from category 4 to category 5). Consequently, the
verification statistics that appear in these annual reports may differ from those presented elsewhere in these pages
based on current practices and datasets.
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Next: Official five-year mean errors and distributions
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