SPC AC 220549
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
   
   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS UPPER TROUGHING WEAKENS/RETREATS EWD AWAY FROM THE NERN
   CONUS...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE ERN HALF OF
   THE COUNTRY.  MEANWHILE...LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
   EXPAND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH A BROAD BELT OF
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES.  WITHIN THIS
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT...TWO SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL U.S. -- ONE CROSSING OK AND N TX AND SHIFTING INTO THE
   OZARKS LATE...AND THE OTHER TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH TIME.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
   WRN U.S. WITH TIME...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES.  FARTHER
   E...A LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
   WITH TIME...RESULTING IN A FAIRLY DIFFUSE PRESSURE FIELD DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PREVAIL
   FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   SHOWERS AND ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA
   EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITHIN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/QG FORCING. 
   WHILE LIMITED HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THIS
   CONVECTION...POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS STORMS
   MOVE FARTHER N AWAY FROM THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.
   
   IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION -- AND THE PASSING SHORT-WAVE
   TROUGH...CAPPING IS HINTED AT BY THE MODELS -- LIKELY ASSOCIATED
   WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.  THIS -- AND QUESTIONS
   REGARDING DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN WHAT IS LIKELY TO BE A
   SOMEWHAT CLOUDY/RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS CASTS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
   TO SUBSEQUENT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. 
   ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY 5% HAIL/WIND THREAT AS STORMS SHOULD
   GENERALLY REMAIN SCATTERED AND GENERALLY DISORGANIZED.
   
   ...N TX/OK...
   CLOUDS -- AND PERHAPS SOME ONGOING CONVECTION -- SHOULD SPREAD
   ACROSS THE N TX/OK AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.  WITH THIS LIKELY TO HAMPER MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING THE
   DEGREE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN A SOMEWHAT
   COOL/POTENTIALLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WHERE NEBULOUS LOW-LEVEL
   FORCING WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT.
   
   GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN ONLY LOW-PROBABILITY
   SEVERE RISK IN THIS AREA.  A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS MAY POSE MARGINAL
   HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EVENING AS CONVECTION
   CROSSES ERN OK AND MOVES TOWARD THE OZARKS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
   UPPER SYSTEM.
   
   ..GOSS/GARNER.. 10/22/2012
   
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