Super Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 14
Published: September 27, 2012
7 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Ol’ Jelawat looks like it plans to remain a pesky little bugger as snakes its way east toward Okinawa after paying a brief visit to the Taiwan area. Things should get a bit hairy starting Saturday morning. Jelawat is forecast to roar just south of Kadena around 3 p.m. Saturday, with peak winds, 98-mph sustained and 132-mph gusts, forecast for mid-afternoon and things dying down sometime Saturday evening, forecasts project.
And Jelawat won’t stop there. Even as it loses its powerful punch while making a northeast beeline toward central Honshu, Jelawat is expected to continue packing severe tropical storm-strength winds, 52-mph sustained and 63-mph gusts as it comes ashore over Hamanatsu long about mid-morning Monday. Might not be that mighty as it rumbles inland some 34 miles northwest of Yokota and 65 miles north of Yokosuka around mid-afternoon, but it should still be a wet, windy day in the Tokyo area.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3. Expect U.S. bases in the Kanto Plain to enter TCCOR 4 sometime Friday, if nothing else as a precaution.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35-mph winds and greater, 10 p.m. Friday.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds and greater, midnight Friday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds and greater, 7 a.m. Saturday.
-- Maximum 98-mph sustained winds, 132-mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 11 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 a.m. Sunday.
Ever the securocrat, Pacific Storm Tracker bids you to always err on the side of caution, or as the theme song of the old Mel Brooks comedy The Producers suggests: “Hope for the best, expect the worst.” Especially for those new to the island, never treat these things lightly, for if you do, Mr. Murphy of Murphy’s Law fame is likely to pitch tent in the living room of the house ill-prepared for a storm. Better to have too much and not need it than to have not enough and need it desperately.
You have about one more day to ensure the trampoline is taken down, the garbage and recycle bins, bicycles and barbeque grills are stowed or tied down, anything that can be taken airborne and become a dangerous projectile. Those heavy butane containers that seemingly need 10 people to lift? They can be buffeted all around a patio or backyard, believe it or not. Any gusts or winds above 58 mph are “no-kidding” stuff that needs to be taken very seriously.
If you’ve not done so already, make that run to the commissary and PX. Flashlights, a portable radio and batteries to run them, enough bottled water, non-perishable food, diapers and sanitizer, food for your furry friends to last three days at least; power can be off for quite a while during these things. Also, visit your ATM and get enough local currency and dollars to last the same period, and make sure to visit the gasoline stand and fill up the tank.
Be safe out there, guys and dolls.
