Latest Seasonal Assessment - Drought amelioration occurred across the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys from late August to mid-September, while drought intensified and expanded across the Great Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, and northern Rockies. Drought is expected to persist across most of the Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, while prospects for improvement increase across the Ohio Valley, middle Mississippi Valley, and southern Texas. Drought also expanded or intensified across the northern Rockies where additional development or persistence is expected. Development forecast across the Pacific Northwest and northern California is consistent with the CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks calling for enhanced odds for below median precipitation during an increasingly wet time of year. An active monsoon resulted in drought improvement across parts of the Southwest since late August. The end of the monsoon offers decreasing chances for widespread improvement and persistence is now forecast for the Southwest. Improvement is expected for the small areas of drought across the mid-Atlantic and western New York. No changes were made to the previous outlook in Hawaii where persistence or development can be expected.

Forecaster: B. Pugh

Next Outlook issued: October 4, 2012 at 8:30 AM EDT

Seasonal Drought Outlook Discussion