Released: September 11, 2012

Short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections through 2013 for U.S. and International oil forecasts (archived versions)

Released: September 11, 2012

Short-term petroleum supply, demand, and price projections.

Released: August 2, 2012

This report presents the major assumptions of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to generate the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2012, including general features of the model structure, assumptions concerning energy markets, and the key input data and parameters that are the most significant in formulating the model results.

Released: June 25, 2012

The complete version of Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) which, in addition to the Reference case projections, includes 29 alternative cases which show how different assumptions regarding market, policy, and technology drivers affect projections of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future.

Released: September 19, 2011

International petroleum projections through 2035

Released: September 19, 2011

This report presents international energy projections through 2035, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions. (archived versions)

Released: August 15, 2011

This report includes estimates of OPEC net oil export revenues, based on projections from the latest EIA Short Term Energy Outlook.

Released: April 26, 2011

Petroleum projections to 2035.

Released: April 26, 2011

The AEO Supplemental tables were generated for the reference case of the Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) using the National Energy Modeling System, a computer-based model which produces annual projections of energy markets. Most of the tables were not published in the AEO, but contain regional and other more detailed projections underlying the AEO projections.

Released: April 12, 2011

Projection of motor gasoline prices, supply, and demand for the upcoming summer driving season.

Released: March 17, 2011

Presented by: Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, to: Committee on Natural Resources, United States House of Representatives; Washington, DCMarch 17, 2011

Released: February 10, 2011

Presented by Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration; to Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, United States Senate; Washington, D.C.February 3, 2011

Released: February 3, 2011

Presented by: Richard G. Newell, Administrator, U.S. Energy Information Administration, to: Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee United States Senate; Washington, D.C.

Released: February 2, 2011

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations; Washington, DC

Released: February 2, 2011

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator to: Saudi Arabia - United States Energy Consultations

Released: November 18, 2010

Paper explores the potential for U.S. refiners to create more distillate and less gasoline without major additional investments beyond those already planned.

Released: October 18, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: New York Energy Forum; New York, NY

Released: October 13, 2010

Presented by: Richard Newell, Administrator, to: NASEO 2010 Winter Fuels Outlook Conference; Washington, DC

Released: July 16, 2010

This report responds to a request from Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman for an analysis of the American Power Act of 2010 (APA). APA, as released by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010, regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and other economic incentives.

Released: June 1, 2010

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: May 11, 2010

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oil prices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

Released: May 11, 2010

In AEO2010, the price of light, low-sulfur (or sweet) crude oil delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma, is tracked to represent movements in world oil prices. EIA makes projections of future supply and demand for total liquids, which includes conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil, natural gas plant liquids, and refinery gainin addition to unconventional liquids, which include biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: May 11, 2010

Pursuant to the Presidents announcement of a National Fuel Efficiency Policy, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the EPA have promulgated nationally coordinated standards for tailpipe CO2-equivalent emissions and fuel economy for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) [16], which includes both passenger cars and light-duty trucks. In the joint rulemaking, EPA is enacting CO2-equivalent emissions standards under the Clean Air Act (CAA), and NHTSA is enacting companion CAFE standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, as amended by EISA2007.

Released: April 1, 2010

EIA introduced a monthly analysis of energy price volatility and forecast uncertainty in the October 2009 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Included in the analysis were charts portraying confidence intervals around the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) futures prices of West Texas Intermediate (equivalent to light sweet crude oil) and Henry Hub natural gas contracts.

Released: January 2, 2010

Two large categories define the world's producing countries of crude oil and other liquid fuels (hereafter liquids): those that are members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and those that are outside that group (non-OPEC). This article takes a closer look at the latter category.

Released: October 6, 2009

EIA Measures Price Uncertainty in Oil and Natural Gas Markets

Released: June 1, 2009

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: March 31, 2009

The U.S. offshore is estimated to contain substantial resources of both crude oil and natural gas, but until recently some of the areas of the lower 48 OCS have been under leasing moratoria. The Presidential ban on offshore drilling in portions of the lower 48 OCS was lifted in July 2008, and the Congressional ban was allowed to expire in September 2008, removing regulatory obstacles to development of the Atlantic and Pacific OCS.

Released: March 31, 2009

Oil shales are fine-grained sedimentary rocks that contain relatively large amounts of kerogen, which can be converted into liquid and gaseous hydrocarbons (petroleum liquids, natural gas liquids, and methane) by heating the rock, usually in the absence of oxygen, to 650 to 700 degrees Fahrenheit (in situ retorting) or 900 to 950 degrees Fahrenheit (surface retorting) [60]. (Oil shale is, strictly speaking, a misnomer in that the rock is not necessarily a shale and contains no crude oil.) The richest U.S. oil shale deposits are located in Northwest Colorado, Northeast Utah, and Southwest Wyoming. Currently, those deposits are the focus of petroleum industry research and potential future production. Among the three States, the richest oil shale deposits are on Federal lands in Northwest Colorado.

Released: March 31, 2009

In AEO2009, E10a gasoline blend containing 10 percent ethanolis assumed to be the maximum ethanol blend allowed in California RFG, as opposed to the 5.7-percent blend assumed in earlier AEOs. The 5.7-percent blend had reflected decisions made when California decided to phase out use of the additive methyl tertiary butyl ether in its RFG program in 2003, opting instead to use ethanol in the minimum amount that would meet the requirement for 2.0 percent oxygen content under the CAA provisions in effect at that time

Released: March 31, 2009

The oil prices reported in AEO2009 represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars [50]. Projections of future supply and demand are made for liquids, a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquidssuch as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquidsin addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

Released: March 31, 2009

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oil price (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oil prices averaged 8.6; and in the AEO2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oil price case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oil price case.

Released: March 13, 2009

From 1982 through 2008, Congress annually enacted appropriations riders prohibiting the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior from conducting activities related to leasing, exploration, and production of oil and natural gas on much of the Federal OCS. Further, a separate executive ban (originally put in place in 1990 by President George H.W. Bush and later extended by President William J. Clinton through 2012) also prohibited leasing on the OCS, with the exception of the Western Gulf of Mexico, portions of the Central and Eastern Gulf of Mexico, and Alaska. In combination, those actions prohibited drilling along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and in portions of the central Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 (Public Law 109-432) imposed yet a third ban on drilling through 2022 on tracts in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico that are within 125 miles of Florida, east of a dividing line known as the Military Mission Line, and in the Central Gulf of Mexico within 100 miles of Florida.

Released: February 1, 2009

This report responds to a request from Senator Jeff Sessions for an analysis of the environmental and energy efficiency attributes of light-duty diesel vehicles. Specifically, the inquiry asked for a comparison of the characteristics of diesel-fueled vehicles with those of similar gasoline-fueled, E85-fueled, and hybrid vehicles, as well as a discussion of any technical, economic, regulatory, or other obstacles to increasing the use of diesel-fueled vehicles in the United States.

Released: September 24, 2008

From the late 1970s through 2002, steel, cement, and concrete prices followed a general downward trend. Since then, however, iron and steel prices have increased by 8 percent in 2003, 10 percent in 2004, and 31 percent in 2005. Although iron and steel prices declined in 2006, early data for 2007 show another increase. Cement and concrete prices, as well as the composite cost index for all construction commodities, have shown similar trends but with smaller increases in 2004 and 2005.

Released: September 12, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Byron L. Dorgan for an analysis of the impacts on U.S. energy import dependence and emission reductions resulting from the commercialization of advanced hydrogen and fuel cell technologies in the transportation and distributed generation markets.

Released: June 30, 2008

This presentation provides an analysis of the various factors behind a six year, six-folding in oil prices and the market conditions likely to either accelerate that rise or result in a significant downturn.

Released: June 26, 2008

AEO2008 defines the world oil price as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both above ground and below ground factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oil prices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oil prices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non- OECD countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oil prices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. EIA will continue to monitor world oil price trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

Released: June 10, 2008

EIA estimates of expected production shut-ins of crude oil and natural gas in the U.S. Gulf Coast during the upcoming hurricane season (June through November).

Released: May 22, 2008

This report responds to a request from Senator Ted Stevens that the Energy Information Administration provide an assessment of Federal oil and natural gas leasing in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska.

Released: April 8, 2008

This report focuses on the major factors that drove the widening difference between wholesale gasoline and crude oil prices in 2007 and explores how those factors might impact gasoline prices in 2008.

Released: March 11, 2008

This presentation describes the projections for petroleum-based gasoline and distillate in the Update AEO 2008, which includes the impacts of the Energy Independence and Security Act.

Released: February 1, 2008

In 2008-2009, EIA expects that non-OPEC petroleum supply growth will surpass that in recent years because of the large number of new oil projects scheduled to come online during the forecast period.

Released: December 4, 2007

This paper responds to an October 31, 2007, request from Representatives Barton, McCrery, and Young.

Released: November 6, 2007

Why Are Oil Prices So High?

Released: June 13, 2007

Projected impacts to Gulf of Mexico crude oil and natural gas production for the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Released: April 19, 2007

A presentation exploring the factors driving higher prices, margins, and light-heavy price differentials in today's market, and what these observations may imply about future profitability in the refining industry.

Released: March 27, 2007

This report responds to a July 13, 2006 request from Chairman Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested that EIA conduct a study of the impact that refinery shutdowns have had on the price of oil and gasoline.

Released: March 19, 2007

A presentation at the 2007 NPRA Annual Meeting focusing on trends in the diesel market. The presentation reviews the status of the ULSD program and highlights recent changes and trends in the distillate market that point towards continued strength in diesel prices relative to gasoline for some time.

Released: February 22, 2007

In March 2006, NHTSA finalized CAFE standards requiring higher fuel economy performance for light-duty trucks in MY 2008 through 2011. Unlike the proposed CAFE standards discussed in AEO2006 [13], which would have established minimum fuel economy requirements by six footprint size classes, the final reformed CAFE standards specify a continuous mathematical function that determines minimum fuel economy requirements by vehicle footprint, defined as the wheelbase (the distance from the front axle to the center of the rear axle) times the average track width (the distance between the center lines of the tires) of the vehicle in square feet.

Released: February 22, 2007

Over the long term, the AEO2007 projection for world oil pricesdefined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refinersis similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

Released: February 22, 2007

EPACT2005 requires that the use of renewable motor fuels be increased from the 2004 level of just over 4 billion gallons to a minimum of 7.5 billion gallons in 2012, after which the requirement grows at a rate equal to the growth of the gasoline pool. The law does not require that every gallon of gasoline or diesel fuel be blended with renewable fuels. Refiners are free to use renewable fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, in geographic regions and fuel formulations that make the most sense, as long as they meet the overall standard. Conventional gasoline and diesel can be blended with renewables without any change to the petroleum components, although fuels used in areas with air quality problems are likely to require adjustment to the base gasoline or diesel fuel if they are to be blended with renewables.

Released: February 22, 2007

Costs related to the construction industry have been volatile in recent years. Some of the volatility may be related to higher energy prices. Prices for iron and steel, cement, and concretecommodities used heavily in the construction of new energy projects rose sharply from 2004 to 2006, and shortages have been reported. How such price fluctuations may affect the cost or pace of new development in the energy industries is not known with any certainty, and short-term changes in commodity prices are not accounted for in the 25-year projections in AEO2007. Most projects in the energy industries require long planning and construction lead times, which can lessen the impacts of short-term trends.

Released: February 22, 2007

This analysis was updated for AEO2009: Impact of Limitations on Access to Oil and Natural Gas Resources in the Federal Outer Continental Shelf The OCS is estimated to contain substantial resources of crude oil and natural gas; however, some areas of the OCS are subject to drilling restrictions. With energy prices rising over the past several years, there has been increased interest in the development of more domestic oil and natural gas supply, including OCS resources. In the past, Federal efforts to encourage exploration and development activities in the deep waters of the OCS have been limited primarily to regulations that would reduce royalty payments by lease holders. More recently, the States of Alaska and Virginia have asked the Federal Government to consider leasing in areas off their coastlines that are off limits as a result of actions by the President or Congress. In response, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) of the U.S. Department of the Interior has included in its proposed 5-year leasing plan for 2007-2012 sales of one lease in the Mid-Atlantic area off the coastline of Virginia and two leases in the North Aleutian Basin area of Alaska. Development in both areas still would require lifting of the current ban on drilling.

Released: September 12, 2006

This presentation was given at the New York Energy Forum on September 5, 2006. It explores the reasons behind rising oil prices over the last few years and discusses whether the drop in oil prices seen in late August and early September 2005 is the start of a long-running trend or is only a temporary decline.

Released: August 7, 2006

This presentation at the 2006 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference in North Falmouth, Massachusetts, outlined EIA's current forecast for U.S. crude oil, distillate, propane and gasoline supply, demand, and markets over the coming winter season.

Released: August 6, 2006

Feature article on the reasons for high oil prices.

Released: July 1, 2006

This supplement to the July 2006 ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) examines the various factors that have contributed to this summers high gasoline prices and discusses how they may continue to impact markets over the next several months.

Released: February 1, 2006

A key issue in mid-term forecasting is the representation of changing and developing technologies. How existing technologies will evolve, and what new technologies might emerge, cannot be known with certainty. The issue is of particular importance in AEO2006, the first AEO with projections out to 2030.

Released: February 1, 2006

World oil prices in the AEO2006 reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oil prices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

Released: February 1, 2006

The AEO2006 projections of future energy market conditions reflect the effects of oil prices on the macroeconomic variables that affect oil demand, in particular, and energy demand in general. The variables include real GDP growth, inflation, employment, exports and imports, and interest rates.

Released: February 1, 2006

Higher prices for crude oil and refined petroleum products are opening the door for nonconventional liquids to displace petroleum in the traditional fuel supply mix. Growing world demand for diesel fuel is helping to jump-start the trend toward increasing production of nonconventional liquids, and technological advances are making the nonconventional alternatives more viable commercially. Those trends are reflected in the AEO2006 projections.

Released: February 1, 2006

There have been some major changes in the U.S. refining industry recently, prompted in part by a significant decline in the quality of imported crude oil and by increasing restrictions on the quality of finished products. As a result, high-quality crudes, such as the WTI crude that serves as a benchmark for oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), have been trading at record premiums to the OPEC Basket price.

Released: February 1, 2006

On November 8, 2005, the EPA Administrator signed a direct final rule that will shift the retail compliance date for offering ULSD for highway use from September 1, 2006, to October 15, 2006. The change will allow more time for retail outlets and terminals to comply with the new 15 parts per million (ppm) sulfur standard, providing time for entities in the diesel fuel distribution system to flush higher sulfur fuel out of the system during the transition. Terminals will have until September 1, 2006, to complete their transitions to ULSD. The previous deadline was July 15, 2006.

Released: December 14, 2005

This presentation focuses on the impacts Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma will have on oil markets (supply, demand, stocks, and imports) in the fourth quarter of 2005 and into 2006. The presentation looks examines whether oil markets are likely to return to much lower prices (the long term average) or continue the trend of high oil prices seen over the last couple of years.

Released: October 12, 2005

The presentation explores if diesel-fueled light-duty vehicle growth in the U.S. might be large enough to create refinery constraints that would hinder that growth.

Released: October 12, 2005

The presentation provides background on distillate supply and demand, and then focuses on how hurricanes Katrina and Rita impact on refining capacity might affect winter fuels.

Released: July 13, 2005

EIA representatives participated in two Energy Policy Forums sponsored by Congressman Jim Gerlach in Pennsylvania on July 6 and 7, 2005. EIA's presentation covered trends, underlying factors, and EIA's outlook for retail gasoline prices.

Released: July 11, 2005

Explores some potential variations in light-duty vehicle demand to illustrate both the magnitude of demand changes and the length of time that it can take to affect demand when different levels of new-vehicle efficiencies and penetrations are assumed

Released: July 1, 2005

This report responds to a May 2, 2005, request by Chairman Pete Domenici and Ranking Member Jeff Bingaman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for an assessment of the energy supply, consumption, import, price, and macroeconomic impacts of H.R. 6 EH, the Energy Policy Act of 2005, as passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on April 21, 2005.

Released: June 13, 2005

When will world oil production peak? EIA's analysis of this critical matter is discussed here.

Released: March 14, 2005

A presentation to the NPRA Annual Meeting discussing the major factors that drove petroleum prices, price differentials, and margins in 2004, and what this might mean for refiners as we look towards the future.

Released: February 18, 2005

A presentation to the National Association of State Energy Officials 2005 Energy Outlook Conference, in Washington, DC, on February 17, 2005, giving EIA's outlook for petroleum and natural gas supply, demand, and prices.

Released: February 9, 2005

A presentation to the 7th Annual International Airport Operations/Jet Fuel Conference, in Orlando, Florida, on February 3, 2005, giving EIA¿s outlook for petroleum supply and prices, with particular attention to jet fuel.

Released: February 1, 2005

World oil prices in AEO2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Released: October 20, 2004

This presentation outlines some of the issues and challenges ahead for gasoline supply in the United States, with a particular look at international refining and factors affecting gasoline imports.

Released: October 12, 2004

This presentation was given at the Oil Price Information Service National Supply Summit by Joanne Shore and John Hackworth. It covers the world oil market changes and the impact on domestic outlook for petroleum supply.

Released: August 18, 2004

When will worldwide crude oil production peak? EIA's analysis of this critical matter is discussed here.

Released: August 10, 2004

Presented by: Doug Macintyre, Senior Oil Market Analyst Presented to: Council of State Governments Eastern Regional Conference Springfield, MA August 10, 2004

Released: July 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC July 15, 2004

Released: July 7, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Government Reform Committee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC July 7, 2004

Released: June 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources United States Senate Washington, DC June 15 , 2004

Released: May 1, 2004

On May 11, 2004, Senator Landrieu asked EIA to evaluate SA.2028. This paper responds to that request, relying on the modeling methodology, data sources, and assumptions used to analyze the original bill, as extensively documented in EIA's June 2003 report.

Released: May 1, 2004

In October 2003, EIA published a review of the status of the methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) ban transition in New York (NY) and Connecticut (CT) that noted significant uncertainties in gasoline supply for those States for the summer of 2004. To obtain updated information, EIA spoke to major suppliers to the two States over the past several months as the petroleum industry began the switch from winter- to summer-grade gasoline.

Released: April 27, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: CSIS - US Saudi Arabian Business Council US - Saudi Relations and Global Energy Security April 27, 2004

Released: April 15, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: North American Energy Summit April 15, 2004

Released: March 4, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate Washington, DC March 4, 2004

Released: March 1, 2004

This study analyzed the impact on future oil imports and expenditures of opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) to petroleum development. High, low, and mean ANWR oil resource case projections were compared to the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 reference case. The study also examined whether potential synergies exist in opening ANWR to petroleum development and the construction of an Alaska gas pipeline from the North Slope to the lower 48 States.

Released: March 1, 2004

Presentation by Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration NPRA Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 2004

Released: February 12, 2004

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources Committee on Resources U.S. House of Representatives February 12, 2004

Released: February 1, 2004

This service report was undertaken at the February 2, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003. This report summarizes the CEB provisions that can be analyzed using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and have the potential to affect energy consumption, supply, and prices. The impacts are estimated by comparing the projections with the CEB provisions to the AEO2004 Reference Case.

Released: February 1, 2004

This special report was undertaken at the January 29, 2004, request of Senator John Sununu to perform an assessment of five specific tax provisions of the Conference Energy Bill of 2003.

Released: October 1, 2003

In response to a Congressional request, EIA examined the progress being made to meet the bans on the use of methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) being implemented in New York and Connecticut at the end of 2003.

Released: September 15, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of State Energy Officials Austin, Texas September 15 , 2003

Released: June 1, 2003

On January 9, 2003, Senators John McCain and Joseph I. Lieberman introduced Senate Bill 139 (S.139), the Climate Stewardship Act of 2003, in the U.S. Senate. S.139 would require the Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to promulgate regulations to limit greenhouse gas emissions. On January 28, 2003, Senator James M. Inhofe requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) perform a comprehensive analysis of S.139. On April 2, 2003, Senators McCain and Lieberman, cosponsors of S.139, made a further request for analyses of their bill. This Service Report responds to both requests.

Released: May 19, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: IOGCC Conference Williamsburg, Virginia May 19, 2003

Released: May 4, 2003

Presented by: Guy F. Caruso, EIA Administrator Presented to: The Committee On Energy And Commerce U. S. House Of Representatives Washington, DC May 4 2003

Released: April 1, 2003

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2003/04. It was given at the 2003 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Asheville, NC on August 11, 2003.

Released: March 1, 2003

The presentation explores the implications that future feedstock changes and product specification changes may have on refined product supply.

Released: March 1, 2003

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels.

Released: February 18, 2003

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Acting EIA Administrator Washington, DC February 18, 2003

Released: October 1, 2002

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: OPIS National Supply Summit San Antonio, Texas October 2002

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the potential effect/role of implementation of a national menu of fuels to address the proliferation of boutique fuels.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the supply impacts of removing MTBE from gasoline.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper provides background on the 1-pound waiver and how It can affect gasoline volumes.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper focuses on the impact on gasoline price and supply when additional ozone non-attainment areas come under the new 8-hour ozone standard.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes renewable motor fuel production capacity with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the renewable fuels standard.

Released: September 1, 2002

This paper analyzes the inter-regional transportation issues and associated costs for increased distribution of renewable fuels with the assumption that ethanol will be used to meet the standards.

Released: September 1, 2002

Summary of a series of 8 papers discussing the market impacts the Senate-passed fuels provisions of H.R.4, the Energy Policy Act of 2002.

Released: August 21, 2002

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.

Released: August 1, 2002

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2002/03. It was given at the 2002 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Kennebunkport, ME on August 12, 2002.

Released: April 1, 2002

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: API Annual Pipeline Conference Dallas, Texas April, 2002

Released: March 18, 2002

Presented by: John Cook Presented to: NPRA Annual Meeting San Antonio, Texas March 18, 2002

Released: March 12, 2002

This service report addresses the Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)/methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) provisions of S. 1766. The 'S. 1766' Case reflects provisions of S. 1766 including a renewable fuels standard (RFS) reaching five billion gallons by 2012, a complete phase-out of MTBE within four years, and the option for States to waive the oxygen requirement for reformulated gasoline (RFG).

Released: March 1, 2002

On December 20, 2001, Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002) and House Bill H.R. 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001)1. In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where relevant, import dependence, and emissions. The analysis provided is based on the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 (AEO2002) midterm forecasts of energy supply, demand, and prices through 2020.

Released: March 1, 2002

Sen. Frank Murkowski, the Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requested an analysis of selected portions of Senate Bill 1766 (S. 1766, the Energy Policy Act of 2002), House Resolution 4 (the Securing America's Future Energy Act of 2001) and Senate Bill 517 (S. 517, the Energy Policy Act of 2002).1,2,3 In response, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has prepared a series of analyses showing the impacts of each of the selected provisions of the bills on energy supply, demand, and prices, macroeconomic variables where feasible, import dependence, and emissions.

Released: March 1, 2002

Analyzes changes in gasoline markets, both here in the United States and abroad, that might affect the availability of gasoline imports between now and 2007. This includes changes in gasoline specifications both here and in other countries that supply imported gasoline, as well as growing demand in these countries.

Released: March 1, 2002

This assessment of the economic impacts of CAFÉ standards marks the first time EIA has used the new direct linkage of the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model to NEMS in a policy setting. This methodology assures an internally consistent solution between the energy market concepts forecast by NEMS and the aggregate economy as forecast by the DRI-WEFA Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy.

Released: March 1, 2002

This addendum provides projections on the increase in U.S. oil production from opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the decease in net petroleum imports, and the change in net petroleum expenditures across a range of cases.

Released: February 11, 2002

Presented to: Tithe 4th International Jet Fuel Conference February 11, 2002

Released: August 1, 2001

This PowerPoint presentation provides an early look at the crude oil, heating oil, and propane market outlooks for the winter of 2001/02. It was given by Doug MacIntyre at the 2001 State Heating Oil and Propane Program Conference held in Wilmington, DE on August 13, 2001.

Released: July 1, 2001

This chapter discusses the projected impacts of new emission caps on nitrogen oxides (Nox), Sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), and mercury (Hg) and the adoption of a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) on the U.S. markets for those fuels, including industry employment levels

Released: July 1, 2001

This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts on energy consumers and producers of coordinated strategies to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide at U.S. power plants.

Released: June 14, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: Committee on Government Reform, Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs United States House of Representatives June 14, 2001

Released: June 14, 2001

Statement of John Cook Before the Committee on Government Reform Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Natural Resources and Regulatory Affairs U.S. House of Representatives June 14, 2001

Released: June 1, 2001

This report addresses the potential impact of rotating electrical outages on petroleum product and natural gas supply in California.

Released: May 10, 2001

Presentation by Douglas MacIntyre and Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: May 1, 2001

This report discusses the implications of the new regulations for vehicle fuel efficiency and examines the technology, production, distribution, and cost implications of supplying diesel fuel to meet the new standards.

Released: May 1, 2001

An analysis of plausible scenarios for the North Slope area of Alaska.

Released: April 25, 2001

On April 25, Dr. John Cook, Petroleum Division Director in the Office of Oil and Gas, testified on West Coast gasoline prices before the Senate Subcommittee on Consumer Affairs , Foreign Commerce, and Tourism. This Subcommittee is under the jurisdiction of the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Dr. Cook provided the Subcommittee with information on the current gasoline price situation as well as identified unique characteristics of the West Coast gasoline market that help make its gasoline prices generally higher than other regions of the United States.

Released: March 30, 2001

Summary Statement of John Cook Director Petroleum Division Energy Information Administration Department of Energy before the Subcommittee on Energy and Air Quality Committee on Energy and Commerce U.S. House of Representatives March 30, 2001

Released: March 21, 2001

Presented by: Mary J. Hutzler, Director, Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting Presented to: Senate Energy And Natural Resources Committee United States Senate March 21, 2001

Released: March 19, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: NPRA Annual Meeting March 19, 2001

Released: February 1, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas February 26, 2001

Released: January 26, 2001

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division, Office of Oil and Gas Presented to: National Governors' Association January 26, 2001

Released: January 12, 2001

Presented by: Mark J. Mazur, Acting EIA Administrator January 12, 2001

Released: December 18, 2000

Presentation to the National Conference of State Legislators by Mark Masur, Acting Administrator

Released: September 28, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration Before the Committee on Commerce Subcommittee on Energy and Power U.S. House of Representatives September 28, 2000

Released: September 15, 2000

Presented by: Joanne Shore Presented to: PPMCSA Annual Meeting and Trade Show September 15, 2000

Released: September 7, 2000

Presented by: Mark Rodekohr Presented to: The New England Council & Governor's Conference Boston, MA September 7, 2000

Released: September 7, 2000

Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 7, 2000

Presentation by Joanne Shore, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: September 1, 2000

Statement of Mark J. Mazur Acting Administrator Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources U.S. Senate September 26, 2000

Released: September 1, 2000

Presentation by Douglas MacIntyre, Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: August 11, 2000

Presented by: Neal Davis Presented to: Valve Manufacturers Association of America Chicago, IL August 10-11, 2000

Released: August 1, 2000

Analysis of long term world oil supply.

Released: July 27, 2000

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division; EIA's Office of Oil and Gas July 27, 2000

Released: July 13, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Director Petroleum Division; Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources United States Senate July 13, 2000

Released: July 1, 2000

Analysis of the potential impacts of accelerated depletion on domestic oil and natural gas prices and production.

Released: June 29, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Director Petroleum Division; Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Governmental Affairs U.S. Senate June 29, 2000

Released: May 24, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC May 24, 2000

Released: May 11, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator San Diego, CA May 11, 2000

Released: May 1, 2000

In response to the President's request, this study examines how the distillate fuel oil market (and related energy markets) in the Northeast behaved in the winter of 1999-2000, explains the role played by residential, commercial, industrial, and electricity generation sector consumers in distillate fuel oil markets and describes how that role is influenced by the structure of the energy markets in the Northeast

Released: May 1, 2000

EIA received a letter (dated March 10, 2000) from Senator Frank H. Murkowski as Chairman of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources requesting an EIA Service Report with plausible scenarios for ANWR supply development consistent with the most recent U.S. Geological Survey resource assessments. This service report is prepared in response to the request of Senator Murkowski. It focuses on the ANWR coastal plain, a region currently restricted from exploration and development, and updates EIA's 1987 ANWR assessment.

Released: April 18, 2000

Dr. John S. Cook, Director of the Petroleum Division in EIA's Office of Oil and Gas.

Released: April 7, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Providence, RI April 7, 2000

Released: April 1, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator American Association of Petroleum Geologists by New Orleans, Louisiana April 18, 2000

Released: April 1, 2000

Presented by: Dr. John S. Cook, Director, Petroleum Division EIA's Office of Oil and Gas April 18, 2000

Released: March 24, 2000

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 24, 2000

Released: March 1, 2000

Statement of John Cook Director, Petroleum Division Energy Information Administration before the Subcommittee on Energy and Power Committee on Commerce; U.S. House of Representatives March 9, 2000

Released: February 24, 2000

Statement of John Cook, Petroleum Division Director, Energy Information Administration before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, U.S. Senate February 24, 2000

Released: October 5, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: U.S. House of Representatives Washington, DC October 5, 1999

Released: August 1, 1999

This article presents projections of demand and the market price premium for Phase 2 RFG in the year 2000. The projections in this article are based on forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, which is published monthly by the Energy Information Administration.

Released: July 21, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Presented to: National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners Staff Subcommittee on Gas San Francisco, CA July 21, 1999

Released: June 24, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC June 24, 1999

Released: May 19, 1999

Phase 2 of the U.S. reformulated gasoline program begins at the end of this year. This article, published in the Petroleum Supply Monthly, April 1999, provides a forecast and analysis of the demand and price for Phase 2 reformulated gasoline for the year 2000.

Released: March 26, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 26, 1999

Released: March 10, 1999

Presented by: Jay E. Hakes, EIA Administrator Washington, DC March 10, 1999

Released: January 28, 1999

Statement of Jay Hakes Administrator, Energy Information Administration Department of Energy Before the Energy and Natural Resources Committee U.S. Senate January 28, 1999

Released: October 1, 1998

A Briefing Paper on the Energy Information Administration's Analysis and Report Prepared for the Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives

Released: August 1, 1998

Requested by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Analyzes the impacts on petroleum prices, demand, and refinery operations of a projected increase in demand for diesel fuel stemming from greater penetration of diesel-fueled engines in the light-duty vehicle fleet of the U.S. transportation sector.

Released: June 1, 1998

Changes in domestic refining operations are identified and related to the summer Reid vapor pressure (RVP) restrictions and oxygenate blending requirements. This analysis uses published EIA survey data and linear regression equations from the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts appearing in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.

Released: May 1, 1998

Assesses the 1997 late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

Released: March 1, 1998

The blending of oxygenates, such as fuel ethanol and methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE), into motor gasoline has increased dramatically in the last few years because of the oxygenated and reformulated gasoline programs. Because of the significant role oxygenates now have in petroleum product markets, the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) was revised to include supply and demand balances for fuel ethanol and MTBE. The STIFS model is used for producing forecasts in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. A review of the historical data sources and forecasting methodology for oxygenate production, imports, inventories, and demand is presented in this report.

Released: January 2, 1998

On August 27, 1997, the EPA promulgated revised the rules that allow foreign refiners to establish and use individual baselines, but it would not be mandatory (the optional use of an individual refinery baseline is not available to domestic refiners.) If a foreign refiner did not establish and use an individual baseline, the gasoline they export to the U.S. would be regulated through the importer, and subject to the importer's baseline (most likely the statutory baseline). Specific regulatory provisions are implemented to ensure that the option to use an individual baseline would not lead to adverse environmental impacts. This involves monitoring the average quality of imported gasoline, and if a specified benchmark is exceeded, remedial action would be taken by adjusting the requirements applicable to imported gasoline.

Released: January 2, 1998

On January 1, 1998, domestic and foreign refineries and importers must stop using the "simple" model and begin using the "complex" model to calculate emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC), toxic air pollutants (TAP), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from motor gasoline. The primary differences between application of the two models is that some refineries may have to meet stricter standards for the sulfur and olefin content of the reformulated gasoline (RFG) they produce and all refineries will now be held accountable for NOx emissions. Requirements for calculating emissions from conventional gasoline under the anti-dumping rule similarly change for exhaust TAP and NOx. However, the change to the complex model is not expected to result in an increase in the price premium for RFG or constrain supplies.

Released: December 1, 1997

1997-1998 Final issue of this report. This article reviews the major components of propane supply and demand in the United States and their status entering the 1997-1998 heating season. (archived versions)

Released: June 15, 1997

This article describes findings of an analysis of the current low level of distillate stocks which are available to help meet the demand for heating fuel this winter, and presents a summary of the Energy Information Administration's distillate fuel oil outlook for the current heating season under two weather scenarios.

Released: September 1, 1996

This study was undertaken at the request of the General Accounting Office (GAO). Its purpose is to evaluate the impacts on U.S. energy markets and the economy of reducing oil imports. The approach and assumptions underlying this report were specified by GAO and are attached as an Appendix. The study focuses on two approaches: (1) a set of cases with alternative world crude oil price trajectories and (2) two cases which investigate the use of an oil import tariff to achieve a target reduction in the oil imports. The analysis presented uses the National Energy Modeling System, which is maintained by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the DRI/McGraw Hill Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, a proprietary model maintained by DRI and subscribed to by EIA.

Released: December 1, 1994

Provides the most comprehensive assessment publicly available for oil and gas resources in the Fergana basin. Includes projections of potential oil supply and U.S. Geological Survey estimates of undiscovered recoverable oil and gas.

Released: July 1, 1994

Provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 designed to reduce ground-level ozone will increase the demand for reformulated motor gasoline in a number of U.S. metropolitan areas. This article discusses the effects of the new regulations on the motor gasoline market and the refining industry.

Released: August 1, 1993

The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 established a new, sharply lower standard for the maximum sulfur content of on-highway diesel fuel, to take effect October 1, 1993.