SPC AC 280452
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2012
   
   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A HUDSON BAY LOW WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...WITH A
   SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE KY/TN VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
   PHASING WITH THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE FRONT
   WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING THROUGH
   CNTRL TX. AN UPPER RIDGE INITIALLY CENTERED OVER AB/SK WILL SHIFT
   EWD TOWARDS MB AND WRN ONT OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LOW OVER
   THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL PROGRESS SEWD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN/PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST COAST...WHILE A WEAK LOW LINGERS OVER ERN MT. 
   
   ...SERN CO/NERN NM/PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...
   SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG A SWD SAGGING FRONT ACROSS N TX...WITH
   CLOUD COVER GENERALLY HINDERING STRONGER SURFACE-BASED
   DESTABILIZATION. HEIGHT RISES WILL LIKELY FURTHER SUPPRESS ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
   AND LINGERING STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
   DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STRONG STORMS. 
   
   ...KY/TN VALLEYS...MID ATLANTIC AND COASTAL NORTHEAST...
   A SUBTLE NY/PA VORT MAX WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND
   THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
   OCCURRING ACROSS THE COASTAL NORTHEAST. WITH AT LEAST WEAK
   INSTABILITY BUT MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...BRIEF ROTATION AND/OR A
   TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL QUICKLY
   DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE.
   
   MEANWHILE...A SERIES OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS UPPER WAVES WILL CONTINUE
   EWD...REACHING THE KY/TN VALLEYS AND SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION
   AT 12Z/FRI. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY INITIALLY LIMIT STRONGER SURFACE
   BASED-HEATING/DESTABILIZATION...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE
   OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS CAN OCCUR. ACROSS
   THE PIEDMONT OF VA/NC...SPARSER CLOUD COVER AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. AS CONVECTION INCREASES ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND
   PROGRESSES EWD...A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   EVOLVE...WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING/PRECIPITATION LOADING CONTRIBUTING
   TO STRONG TO SEVERE WINDS.
   
   ..HURLBUT/KERR.. 09/28/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z