Super Typhoon 18W (Jelawat), # 12
Published: September 27, 2012
1 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 27, Japan time: Hmm … Make that a Category 2-equivalent pass through Okinawa, apparently.
Super Typhoon Jelawat is forecast to weaken as it approaches Okinawa, but not as quickly as originally forecast. Still, Jelawat should pick up forward speed and rapidly charge through the area on its beeline course for mid-Honshu. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts have Jelawat roaring 11 miles south of Kadena Air Base around 3 p.m. Saturday, with maximum 86 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts forecast for early afternoon. We’re still looking at between 6 to 8 inches of rain starting at noon Friday.
Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4; expect that to change at any moment.
Latest forecast wind timeline provided by Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- Sustained 35 mph winds and greater, 2 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 40 mph winds and greater, 4 a.m. Saturday.
-- Sustained 58 mph winds and greater, noon Saturday.
-- Maximum 86 mph winds and 115 mph gusts, 1 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 10 a.m. Sunday.
Once past Okinawa, Jelawat is forecast to floor it and make landfall around 9 a.m. Monday over the Kansai region of Honshu island, south of Osaka, as a fairly powerful tropical storm with 63 mph sustained winds and 80-mph gusts. It should then shear apart quickly as it interacts with land and westerly vertical wind shear. It’ll pass fairly close to Kanto Plain U.S. bases, about 42 miles northwest of Yokota, but by then, the winds should be manageable if not strong. Keep an eyeball on your commander’s access channels and keep an ear on Eagle 810-AM for TCCOR changes and other updates.
