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Industry employment and output projections to 2020
Richard Henderson
Richard Henderson is an economist in the Division of Industry Employment Projections, Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Email: henderson.richard@bls.gov.
The health care and social assistance sector and the professional and business services sector will account for almost half the projected job growth from 2010 to 2020; construction is projected to rebound from the most recent recession and add jobs, while employment in manufacturing is expected to decline over the period.
This release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections, which are published every 2 years, is the second since the recession that began in December 2007.1 The characteristics and impacts of a recession are usually understood only in retrospect. Industries are affected differently, and the recovery for each industry can occur at different paces and along different paths. These recovery paths for an industry are greatly influenced by a recession's impact on the industry. The latest recession severely affected the construction industry, while the health care sector seemed unaffected. The biennial BLS projections assume that the economy is at or near full employment. This article will present the industry- level perspective of the BLS employment projections within that context.
1 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the official arbiter of recessions in the United States. The NBER identified the latest recession as starting in December 2007 and ending in June 2009. For more information, visit the NBER website on the Internet at http://www.nber.org.
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