Notes and Sources

Legislation and regulations

1. Connecticut State Senate, Bill 382, "An Act Requiring Biodiesel Blended Heating Oil and Lowering the Sulfur Content of Heating Oil Sold in the State," website www.cga.ct.gov/2010/TOB/S/2010SB-00382-R00-SB.htm.

2. Maine State Legislature, "An Act To Establish Biofuel and Ultra-low Sulfur Requirements for Number 2 Home Heating Oil," website www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billtexts/HP116001.asp.

3. New Jersey State Department of Environmental Protection, Amendment N.J.A.C. 7:27-9.2, "Sulfur in Fuels," website www.nj.gov/dep/rules/adoptions/adopt_100920a.pdf.

4. New York State Senate, Bill S1145C, "S1145C-2009: Requires a Reduction in Sulfur Emissions for All Heating Oil Used in Non-Attainment Areas," website http://open.nysenate.gov/legislation/bill/S1145C-2009#.

5. California Air Resources Board, LCFS Final Regulation Order, "Low Carbon Fuel Standard," website www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2009/lcfs09/finalfro.pdf.

6. 111th Congress, Public Law 312, "Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010," Sections 701, 704, and 708, website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-111publ312/html/PLAW-111publ312.htm.

7. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "E15 (A Blend of Gasoline and Ethanol)," website www.epa.gov/otaq/regs/fuels/additive/e15.

8. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "April 1, 2010 Memorandum: Improving EPA Review of Appalachian Surface Coal Mining Operations Under the Clean Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act, and the Environmental Justice Executive Order," website http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/guidance/wetlands/mining.cfm#memo20100401.

9. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, "Fact Sheet: The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI)," website www.rggi.org/docs/RGGI_Fact_Sheet.pdf.

10. Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, "Auction Results," website www.rggi.org/market/co2_auctions/results.

11. California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change, (Sacramento, CA: December 2008), website www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/adopted_scoping_plan.pdf.

12. California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change, (Sacramento, CA: December 2008), website www.arb.ca.gov/cc/scopingplan/document/adopted_scoping_plan.pdf.

13. On April 12, 2011, California Governor Jerry Brown signed into law a 33-percent RPS that replaces the previous Executive Order. The new law can be viewed at http://leginfo.ca.gov/pub/11-12/bill/sen/sb_0001-0050/sbx1_2_bill_20110412_chaptered.pdf.

14. State of California Air Resources Board, "California Cap-and-Trade Program Resolution 10-42" (December 26, 2010), website www.arb.ca.gov/cc/capandtrade/capandtrade/draft%20resolution.pdf.

15. W. Buchanan, "Calif. Cap-Trade Plan Dealt Blow by S.F. Judge,"San Francisco Chronicle (San Francisco, CA: February 4, 2011), website http://articles.sfgate.com/2011-02-04/news/27100791_1_air-board-ab32-emissions-plan.

16. More information about DSIRE can be found at website www.dsireusa.org/about.

17. State of California, Air Resources Board, Resolution 10-23 (September 23, 2010), website www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2010/res2010/res1071.pdf.

18. State of Colorado, 67th General Assembly, House Bill 10-1001 (March 2010), website www.leg.state.co.us/CLICS/CLICS2010A/csl.nsf/BillFoldersAll?OpenFrameSet.

19. Colorado Department of Regulatory Agencies, Public Utilities Commission, "Rules Regulating Electric Utilities," website www.dsireusa.org/documents/Incentives/CO24R.pdf.

20. State of Delaware, 145th General Assembly, Senate Bill #119, Senate Substitute No. 1 (June 18, 2010), website www.legis.delaware.gov/LIS/lis145.nsf/vwLegislation/SB+119/$file/legis.html?open.

21. Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, "Renewable Portfolio Standard – Biomass Policy Regulatory Process," website www.mass.gov/?pageID=eoeeaterminal&L=4&L0=Home&L1=Energy%2C+Utilities+%26+Clean+Technologies&L2=Renewable+Energy&L3=Biomass&sid=Eoeea&b=terminalcontent&f=doer_renewables_biomass_policy-reg-process&csid=Eoeea.

22. Commonwealth of Massachusetts, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, "Solar Carve-out Regulation Finalized," website www.mass.gov/?pageID=eoeeaterminal&L=5&L0=Home&L1=Energy%2C+Utilities+%26+Clean+Technologies&L2=Renewable+Energy&L3=Solar&L4=RPS+Solar+Carve-Out&sid=Eoeea&b=terminalcontent&f=doer_renewables_solar_ongoing-public-rulemaking&csid=Eoeea.

23. State of New Jersey , Assembly Bill 3520, "The Solar Energy Advancement and Fair Competition Act" (January 12, 2010), website www.njleg.state.nj.us/2008/Bills/A4000/3520_R3.PDF.

24. State of New Jersey , Senate Bill 2036, "Offshore Wind Economic Development Act" (June 21, 2010), website www.njleg.state.nj.us/2010/Bills/S2500/2036_R2.PDF.

25. New York State Public Service Commission, "Retail Renewable Portfolio Standard: Case 03-E-0188," website www3.dps.state.ny.us/W/PSCWeb.nsf/All/1008ED2F934294AE85257687006F38BD?OpenDocument.

26. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, "SAFETEA-LU: Safe Accountable Flexible Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users" (July 29, 2005), website www.fhwa.dot.gov/safetealu/.

27. U.S. House of Representatives, Office of the Law Revision Counsel, 2 USC Chapter 20, "Emergency Powers To Eliminate Budget Deficits," Subchapter 1, Section 907 , "The Baseline," website http://uscode.house.gov/download/pls/02C20.txt.

28. Defense Energy Support Center, "Compilation of United States Fuel Taxes, Inspection Fees, and Environmental Taxes and Fees," Edition 2010-10 (June 5, 2010), website www.desc.dla.mil/dcm/files/tax%20compilation%202010-10.doc.

29. 111th Congress, Public Law 312, "Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010," Sections 701, 704, and 708, website www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-111publ312/html/PLAW-111publ312.htm.

30. 110th Congress, Public Law 110-234, "Food, Conservation, and Energy Act of 2008," Section 15331, website http://frwebgate.Access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=110_cong_public_laws&docid=f:publ246.110.pdf.

31. The cellulosic biofuels represented in NEMS are cellulosic ethanol, BLT diesel, and BTL naphtha.

32. California Air Resources Board, "Final Regulation Order: Subarticle 7. Low Carbon Fuel Standard," website www.arb.ca.gov/regact/2009/lcfs09/finalfro.pdf.

33. California Air Resources Board, "Carbon Intensity Lookup Table for Gasoline and Fuels that Substitute for Gasoline" and "Carbon Intensity Lookup Table for Diesel and Fuels that Substitute for Diesel," website www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/121409lcfs_lutables.pdf.

34. "2009 California Health and Safety Code, Section 43025-43031.5, Chapter 1.5, Penalties for Violation of Fuel Regulations," website http://law.justia.com/codes/california/2009/hsc/43025-43031.5.html.

35. ILUC penalties apply to biofuels produced from harvested biomass, which currently include corn ethanol, sugarcane ethanol, and soy-based biodiesel.

36. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "April 1, 2010 Memorandum: Improving EPA Review of Appalachian Surface Coal Mining Operations Under the Clean Water Act, National Environmental Policy Act, and the Environmental Justice Executive Order," website http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/guidance/wetlands/mining.cfm#memo20100401.

37. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Clean Water Act Section 404(c): 'Veto Authority': Spruce No. 1 Surface Mine, Final Determination - January 2011 (Logan County, WV)," website http://water.epa.gov/lawsregs/guidance/cwa/dredgdis/spruce.cfm.

38. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Partial Grant and Partial Denial of Clean Air Act Waiver Application Submitted by Growth Energy To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to 15 Percent; Decision of the Administrator; Notice," Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 213 (Washington, DC: November 4, 2010), website www.regulations.gov/search/Regs/contentStreamer?objectId=0900006480b80cca&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdf.

39. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Partial Grant of Clean Air Act Waiver Application Submitted by Growth Energy To Increase the Allowable Ethanol Content of Gasoline to 15 Percent; Decision of the Administrator," Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 17 (Washington, DC: January 26, 2011), website www.regulations.gov/search/Regs/contentStreamer?objectId=0900006480b80cca&disposition=attachment&contentType=pdf.

40. State of Connecticut, General Assembly, Raised Bill No. 382, February Session 2010, "An Act Requiring Biodiesel Blended Heating Oil and Lowering the Sulfur Content of Heating Oil Sold in the State," website www.cga.ct.gov/2010/TOB/S/2010SB-00382-R00-SB.htm.

41. Maine State Legislature, "An Act To Establish Biofuel and Ultra-low Sulfur Requirements for Number 2 Home Heating Oil," website www.mainelegislature.org/legis/bills/bills_124th/billtexts/HP116001.asp.

42. New Jersey State Department of Environmental Protection, Amendment N.J.A.C. 7:27-9.2, "Sulfur in Fuels," website www.nj.gov/dep/rules/adoptions/adopt_100920a.pdf.

43. New York State Senate, Bill S1145C, "S1145C-2009: Requires a Reduction in Sulfur Emissions for All Heating Oil Used in Non-Attainment Areas," website http://open.nysenate.gov/legislation/bill/S1145C-2009#.

Issues in Focus

44. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (January 11, 2011), "Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices," website www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/archives/jan11_base.xls#'2tab'!A1.

45. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, "2017 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and . CAFE Register, Vol. 75, No. 197 (October 13, 2010), pp. 62739-62750, website http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-25444.htm.

46. Data from Ward's Auto, website www.wardsauto.com (subscription site).

47. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Heavy-Duty Regulations," website www.epa.gov/oms/climate/regulations.htm#1-2; and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles," Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 229 (November 30, 2010), pp. 74451-74456, website http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-28120.htm. For purposes of the proposed rulemaking, heavy-duty vehicles are those with a GVWR of at least 8,501 pounds, except those Class 2b vehicles of 8,501 to 10,000 pounds that are currently covered under LDV fuel economy and GHG emissions standards.

48. Brake horsepower-hour is defined as the horsepower per hour of an engine before the loss in power caused by the gearbox, alternator, water pump, or other auxiliary components, usually determined from the force exerted on a friction brake or dynamometer connected to the drive shaft.

49. U.S. Census Bureau, "Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey," website http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/vius/products.html. Note that the survey has been discontinued.

50. Ward's Auto, "U.S. Factory Sales of Diesel Trucks by GVW, 1965-2010," website www.wardsauto.com (subscription site).

51. See U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, "Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles," Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 229 (November 30, 2010), pp. 74451-74456, website http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-28120.htm.

52. For more information on vehicle compliance measurement and engine, cab, chassis, and vehicle test procedures, see Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 229 (November 30, 2010), pp. 74451-74456, website http://edocket.access.gpo.gov/2010/2010-28120.htm.

53. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "ENERGY STAR® Unit Shipment and Market Penetration Report Calendar Year 2009 Summary" (2009), website www.energystar.gov/ia/partners/downloads/2009_USD_Summary.pdf.

54. In this article, the term "building code" refers to building energy codes, as opposed to construction or safety codes, such as those from the International Code Council or the International Building Code.

55. American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, "The 2010 State Energy Efficiency Scorecard" (October 2010), website www.aceee.org/research-report/e107.

56. Advanced Resources International, Outer Continental Shelf Moratoria Areas: Impact of Various Assumptions on Oil and Natural Gas Production Potential (Arlington, VA: January 2009), prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, website http://fossil.energy.gov/programs/oilgas/publications/oilgas_generalpubs/ocs_moratoria_areas_2008analysis.html.

57. J. Ratafia-Brown, R. Irby, and K. Perry, Analysis of the Social, Economic and Environmental Effects of Maintaining Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Moratoria on and Beneath Federal Lands (Washington, DC: February 2010), website www.naruc.org/Publications/NARUC_MORATORIA_REPORT_02-17-10.pdf.

58. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Updated Capital Cost Estimates for Electricity Generation Plants (Washington, DC: November 2010), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/beck_plantcosts/index.html.

59. National Energy Technology Laboratory, Carbon Sequestration Atlas of the United States and Canada, Third Edition (2010), website www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/carbon_seq/refshelf/atlasIII.

60. International Energy Agency, Carbon Capture and Storage: Progress and Next Steps (Paris, France: 2010), website www.iea.org/papers/2010/ccs_g8.pdf.

61. A supercritical state is a phase of matter in which a fluid has some of the properties of both a liquid and a solid. The advantage for transporting and injecting CO2 in a supercritical state is that the density can be fine-tuned to increase process efficiencies.

62. International Energy Agency, "IEA Energy Technology Essentials: CO2 Capture and Storage" (Paris, France: December 2006), website www.iea.org/techno/essentials1.pdf.

63. National Energy Technology Laboratory, DOE/NETL Advanced Carbon Dioxide Capture R&D Program: Technology Update (September 2010), website www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/coalpower/ewr/pubs/CO2%20Capture%20Tech%20Update%20Final.pdf, p. 14, Box 2.

64. U.S. Department of Energy, Report of the Interagency Task Force on Carbon Capture and Storage (Washington, DC: August 2010), website www.fe.doe.gov/programs/sequestration/ccs_task_force.html.

65. National Energy Technology Laboratory, Methodology for Development of Geologic Storage Estimates for Carbon Dioxide (August 2008), website www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/carbon_seq/refshelf/methodology2008.pdf.

66. J.K. Eccles, L. Pratson, R.G. Newell, and R.B. Jackson, "Physical and Economic Potential of Geological CO2 Storage in Saline Aquifers," Environment Science and Technology, Vol. 43, No. 6 (February 2009), website http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es801572e.

67. National Energy Technology Laboratory, Carbon Dioxide Enhanced Oil Recovery: Untapped Domestic Energy Supply and Long Term Carbon Storage Solution (March 2010), website www.netl.doe.gov/technologies/oil-gas/publications/EP/CO2_EOR_Primer.pdf.

68. Advanced Resources International, Inc., U.S. Oil Production Potential from Accelerated Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage: White Paper (Arlington, VA: March 2010).

69. Four key regulations currently being considered by EPA are the Air Transport Rule, Utility Boiler Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT), the Coal Combustion and Residuals Rule, and the Cooling Water Intake Structure Rule. Each proposal is designed to enforce existing sections of the CAA, RCRA, and the CWA.

70. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Proposed Air Pollution Transport Rule" (Washington, DC: July 26, 2010), website www.epa.gov/airquality/transport/pdfs/TRPresentationfinal_7-26_webversion.pdf.

71. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Proposed Air Pollution Transport Rule" (Washington, DC: July 26, 2010), website www.epa.gov/airquality/transport/pdfs/TRPresentationfinal_7-26_webversion.pdf.

72. U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, "State of North Carolina v. Environmental Protection Agency," No. 05-1244 (Washington, DC: December 23, 2008), website www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/docs/CAIRRemandOrder.pdf.

73. If a wet FGD proves prohibitively expensive for smaller coal plants, other retrofit options exist. Alternative SO2 control technologies, such as DSI, have lower initial capital cost but higher operating costs than FGD's, making them potentially attractive for smaller to medium size coal plants. While some DSI systems are currently operating, the technology is still in early stages of commercialization. Since it is difficult to assess their long term impact on the coal fleet, they are not included in AEO2011.

74. Tennessee Valley Authority, "Coal Combustion Byproducts" (Oak Ridge, TN: July 2010), website www.tva.gov/news/keytopics/coal_combustion_products.htm.

75. U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, "State of New Jersey v. Environmental Protection Agency," No. 05-1097 (Washington, DC: February 8, 2008), website www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/68822E72677ACBCD8525744000470736/$file/05-1097a.pdf.

76. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Power Plant Mercury and Air Toxics Standards" (Washington, DC: March 16, 2011), website www.epa.gov/airquality/powerplanttoxics/pdfs/overviewfactsheet.pdf.

77. Edison Electric Institute, "Potential Impacts of Environmental Regulation on the U.S. Generation Fleet" (Washington, DC: January 2011), website www.pacificorp.com/content/dam/pacificorp/doc/Energy_Sources/Integrated_Resource_Plan/2011IRP/EEIModelingReportFinal-28January2011.pdf. DSI is allowed in one of the studies side cases. The side case also assumes that the 316b Cooling Water Intake Rule and the Coal Combustion Residuals Rule are also in effect.

78. U.S. Supreme Court, "Entergy Corp, v. Riverkeeper, Inc., et al," No. 07-588 (Washington, DC: April 1, 2009), website www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/08pdf/07-588.pdf.

79. Edison Electric Institute, "Potential Impacts of Environmental Regulation on the U.S. Generation Fleet" (Washington, DC: January 2011), website www.pacificorp.com/content/dam/pacificorp/doc/Energy_Sources/Integrated_Resource_Plan/2011IRP/EEIModelingReportFinal-28January2011.pdf. DSI is allowed in one of the studies side cases. The side case also assumes that the 316b Cooling Water Intake Rule and the Coal Combustion Residuals Rule are also in effect.

80. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Energy Market and Economic Impacts of H.R. 2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009" (Washington, DC: August 4, 2009), website www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/hr2454/index.html.

81. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Number and Capacity of Existing Fossil-Fuel Steam-Electric Generators with Environmental Equipment" (Washington, DC: April 2011), website www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epat3p10.html.

82. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, "Emission Control Technologies," website www.epa.gov/airmarkt/progsregs/epa-ipm/docs/v410/Chapter5.pdf.

83. For example, PJM Interconnection requires that Exelon keep its Eddystone Generating Plant in Pennsylvania open for an additional 2 years in order to support system reliability. See Daily Times, "Exelon Postpones Shutdown of Eddystone Plant" (Delaware County, PA: March 4, 2010), website www.delcotimes.com/articles/2010/03/04/business/doc4b8f2a66906bf935574426.txt?viewmode=fullstory.

Market Trends Notes

84. The industrial sector includes manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and mining. The energy-intensive manufacturing sectors include food, paper, bulk chemicals, petroleum refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminum.

85. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2009, DOE/EIA-0384(2009) (Washington, DC: August 2010), Table 5.21, "Crude Oil Refiner Acquisition Cost, 1968-2009," website www.eia.gov/emeu/aer/txt/stb0521.xls.

86. Products covered include many types of heating and cooling equipment, gas and electric water heaters, refrigerators and freezers, several types of lighting (especially, incandescent lamps and fluorescent ballasts), clothes washers and dryers, dishwashers, ranges and ovens, and swimming pool heaters.

87. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Statistical Release G.17, "Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization" (Washington, DC: February 2011), website www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/Current/#NOTICE.

88. S.C. Davis, S.W. Diegel, and R.G. Boundy, Transportation Energy Databook: Edition 29, ORNL-6985 (Oak Ridge, TN: July 2010), Chapter 4, "Light Vehicles and Characteristics."

89. The AEO2011 Reference case does not include the proposed fuel economy standards for heavy-duty vehicles provided in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Medium- and Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles, published by the EPA and the NHTSA in April 2010, nor does it include increases in fuel economy standards for LDVs, based on the September 2010 EPA/NHTSA Notice of Upcoming Joint Rulemaking to Establish 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and CAFE Standards, because the notice of intent does not propose any new vehicle standards.

90. The factors that influence decisionmaking on capacity additions include electricity demand growth, the need to replace inefficient plants, the costs and operating efficiencies of different generation options, fuel prices, State RPS programs, and the availability of Federal tax credits for some technologies.

91. Unless otherwise noted, the term "capacity" in the discussion of electricity generation indicates utility, nonutility, and CHP capacity. Costs reflect the average of regional costs.

92. For detailed discussion of levelized costs, see U.S. Energy Administration, "Levelized Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2011," website www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.html.

93. Conoco Phillips has recently announced plans to shut down its Alaska facility, which has been exporting small amounts of LNG to Japan for over 40 years. They have a license to export through 2013. This is Alaska's only export facility.

94. See "Potential of offshore crude oil and natural gas resources" in the "Issues in focus" section of this report.

95. U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, "State of North Carolina v. Environmental Protection Agency," No. 05-1244 (Washington, DC: December 23, 2008), website www.epa.gov/airmarkets/progsregs/cair/docs/CAIRRemandOrder.pdf.

Appendix E. NEMS overview and brief description of cases

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009, DOE/EIA-0581(2009) (Washington, DC: March 2009), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview.

2. On October 1, 2010, the U.S. Energy Information Administration was reorganized along functional lines. The new Office of Energy Analysis has been assigned all analysis responsibilities for EIA, including short- and mid-term functions as well as fuel-specific analysis. The referenced documents on the EIA website will be changed gradually over the next year to reflect the new organizational structure.

3. The disaggregation to 22 subregions for electricity planning and dispatch is new for AEO2011. Disaggregation of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) is intended to reduce errors that result from aggregation and averaging, to better represent environmental and regional issues, and thus to improve the projections of capacity additions and fuels consumed for generation.

4. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2009, DOE/EIA-0384(2009) (Washington, DC: August 2010), website www.eia.gov/emeu/aer.

5. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2009, DOE/EIA-0573(2009) (Washington, DC, April, 2011), website www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report.

6. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Short-Term Energy and Summer Fuels Outlook," website www.eia.gov/emeu/steo/pub. Portions of the preliminary information were also used to initialize the NEMS Petroleum Market Module projection.

7. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey," website www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mecs.

8. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/EIA-0554(2011) (Washington, DC: April 2011), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption.

9. Alternative liquids technologies include all biofuel technologies plus CTL and GTL.

10. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/EIA-0554(2011) (Washington, DC: April 2011), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption.

11. High technology assumptions for the residential sector are based on U.S. Energy Information Administration, EIA—Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Case Second Edition (Revised) (Navigant Consulting, Inc., September 2007), and EIA—Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Case: Residential and Commercial Lighting, Commercial Refrigeration, and Commercial Ventilation Technologies (Navigant Consulting, Inc., September 2008).

12. High technology assumptions for the commercial sector are based on Energy Information Administration, EIA—Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Case Second Edition (Revised) (Navigant Consulting, Inc., September 2007), and EIA—Technology Forecast Updates—Residential and Commercial Building Technologies—Advanced Case: Residential and Commercial Lighting, Commercial Refrigeration, and Commercial Ventilation Technologies (Navigant Consulting, Inc., September 2008).

13. These assumptions are based in part on Energy Information Administration, Industrial Technology and Data Analysis Supporting the NEMS Industrial Model (FOCIS Associates, October 2005).

14. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Documentation of Technologies Included in the NEMS Fuel Economy Model for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks (Energy and Environmental Analysis, September 2003).

15. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/EIA-0554(2011) (Washington, DC: April 2011), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption.

16. U.S. Energy Information Administration, Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2011, DOE/EIA-0554(2011) (Washington, DC: April 2011), website www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption.