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Electricity Analysis Analysis Reports and Papers related to electricity (most current first)

Short-Term Energy Outlook See Electricity Section
Forecast Analysis - US quarterly projections of electricity to 2010
pages: 58, released: December, 2010, periodicity: Monthly, contact: Tancred Lidderdale (202)586-7321

Annual Energy Outlook - Electricity Section, Overview Section, Issues in Focus,
                                     Legislation and Regulation Section, Forecasts Comparison Section
Forecast Analysis - US annual projections of electricity to 2035 by US region.
      Annual Energy Outlook Supporting Reports-            
            Assumptions for Electricity Market Module PDF Gif
            NEMS:  An Overview 2009 (Electricity Market Module) (also available in printer-friendly version PDF Gif)
                                                    (Renewable Fuels Module) (also available in printer-friendly version PDF Gif)
            National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation Electricity Market Module PDF Gif, Integrating Module PDF Gif
pages: 231, AEO released: December 2010 (supporting reports released thereafter), periodicity: Yearly, contact: Jeffrey Jones (202)586-2038

International Energy Outlook - Electricity Section
Forecast Analysis - International projections of eletricity generation to 2035 by region.
pages: 21, released: July 2010, periodicity: Yearly, contact: Linda Doman (202)586-6344, Brian Murphy (202) 586-1398

Energy Market and Economic Impacts of the American Power Act of 2010 - (also available in printer-friendly version) PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senators Kerry, Graham, and Lieberman for an analysis of the American Power Act of 2010 (APA).  APA, as released by Senators Kerry and Lieberman on May 12, 2010, regulates emissions of greenhouse gases through market-based mechanisms, efficiency programs, and other economic incentives.
Errata - as of July 20, 2010
Study Table Results   Browse data results Regional and supplemental tables available here also. Data can be charted and downloaded.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   Reference with High Natural Gas Resource
   Basic
   Zero Bank
   High Natural Gas Resource
   High Cost
   No International Offsets
   No International Offsets / Limited Alternatives
pages: 23, released: July 2010, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Impacts of a 25-Percent Renewable Electricity Standard as Proposed in the American Clean Energy and Security Act Discussion - (also available in printer-friendly version) PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to requests from Chairman Edward Markey, for an analysis of a 25-percent Federal renewable electricity standard (RES). The RES proposal analyzed in this report is included in the discussion draft of broader legislation, the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) of 2009, issued on the Energy and Commerce Committee website at the end of March 2009. The analysis presented in this report starts from an updated version of the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 reference case that reflects the projected impacts of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA), enacted in February 2009, and revised economic assumptions.
pages: 42, released: April 2009, periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Addendum - (also available in printer-friendly version PDF Gif)
Note: The regional compliance slides posted below have been updated from those posted on April 27, 2009.  The analysis results and the regional compliance mixes are unchanged, but the regional targets shown on the slides now properly reflect the exemption for small retailers and existing hydroelectric generation based on regional data.  The earlier version of these slides had shown regional targets calculated using national average data for the shares of existing hydroelectric generation and sales by small sellers.
PowerPoint Slideshows
   Regional Compliance Mix - RESFEC Case (Full Efficiency Credits) - (also available in printer-friendly version PDF Gif)
   Regional Compliance Mix - RESNEC Case (No Efficiency Credits) - (also available in printer-friendly version PDF Gif)
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Updated AEO2009 Reference Case
   Regional Compliance Mix - RESFEC Case (Full Efficiency Credits)
   Regional Compliance Mix - RESNEC Case (No Efficiency Credits)

Energy and Economic Impacts of Implementing a 25-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard and Renewable Fuel Standard by 2025 - (also available in printer-friendly version) PDF Gif
Requestor: Senator James Inhofe
This report responds to a request by Senator James Inhofe for analysis of a “25-by-25" proposal that combines a requirement that a 25-percent share of electricity sales be produced from renewable sources by 2025 with a requirement that a 25-percent share of liquid transportation fuel sales also be derived from renewable sources by 2025. The electricity requirement is implemented as a renewable portfolio standard (RPS), while the motor fuel standard is implemented as a renewable fuel standard (RFS). The report provides a summary of the impacts of the Policy on U.S. energy markets and the economy through 2030.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   Policy
   High oil and natural gas prices
   Policy with high oil and natural gas prices
   High technology
   Policy with high technology
   Low cost ethanol imports from Brazil
   Policy with low cost ethanol imports from Brazil
pages: 84, released: September 2007, periodicity: One-time, contact Andy Kydes (202)586-0883

Impacts of a 15-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard - (also available in printer-friendly version)PDF Gif and (also available is the Supplemental Information: Regional Generation Impacts Slides) (regional slides as a PDF)PDF Gif
Requestor: Senator Jeff Bingaman, Chairman, Committee on Energy and Natural Resources
This analysis responds to a request from Senator Jeff Bingaman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) requiring that 15 percent of U.S. electricity sales be derived from qualifying renewable energy resources.
pages: 29, released: June 2007, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Energy Market Impacts of a Clean Energy Portfolio Standard - Follow-up
- (also available in printer-friendly version) PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This analysis responds to a request from Senator Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy portfolio standard (CEPS). The proposal is a copy of which is provided to Appendix B, requires electricity suppliers to increase their share of electricity sales that is generated using clean energy resources, including: nonhydropower renewable resources, new hydroelectric or nuclear resources, fuel cells, and fossil-fired plants that capture and sequester carbon dioxide emissions.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   Clean Energy Portfolio Standard - Follow-up
pages: 41, released: February 2007, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Energy Market Impacts of a Clean Energy Portfolio Standard - (also available in printer-friendly version) PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senator Norm Coleman that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) analyze a proposed clean energy resources policy. The proposal requires retail electric suppliers to account for an increasing fraction of incremental sales growth with clean energy resources, including nonhydro renewable resources, new hydroelectric or nuclear resources, fuel cells, or an integrated gasification combined-cycle plant that sequesters its carbon emissions.
Excel Spreadsheets:
   Reference
   Clean Energy Portfolio Standard
pages: 38, released: June 2006, periodicity: One-time, contact Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - Impacts of Modeled Recommendations of the National Commission on Energy Policy
This report responds to a December 17, 2004 request by Senator Jeff Bingaman asking that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) assess the impacts of the recommendations made by the National Commission on Energy Policy (NCEP) in its December 2004 report entitled Ending the Energy Stalemate: A Bipartisan Strategy to Meet America’s Energy Challenges. This report provides EIA’s analysis of those NCEP recommendations on energy supply, demand, and imports that could be simulated using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
pages: 93, released: April 2005, periodicity: One-time, contact: Andy Kydes (202)586-2222

State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Status Through 2003 - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This paper provides a summary of state renewable portfolio standards, renewable energy mandates, and voluntary goals as of the end of 2003 in 15 states. The paper identifies key characteristics of the programs—including their requirements and target time frame for compliance, acceptable and excluded renewable energy sources, alternatives to building new capacity, and potential sanctions. It also provides a summary of the amount of new renewable energy capacity constructed in response to the programs through the end of 2003
pages: 9, released: July 2004, periodicity: One-time, contact: Tom Petersik (202)586-6582

Analysis of S. 1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003; S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003; and S. 366, the Clean Power Act of 2003 - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request from Senator James Inhofe received by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on March 19, 2004. Senator Inhofe requested that the EIA analyze the impacts of S. 1844, the Clear Skies Act of 2003, S. 843, the Clean Air Planning Act of 2003, and S. 366, the Clean Power Act of 2003. The report analyzes the impacts of limits on nitrogen oxide, sulfur dioxide, mercury and carbon dioxide emissions (for S. 843 and S. 366) from electricity generators. It reports the projected impacts on electricity generation by fuel, emissions, capacity expansion, prices, and industry costs
pages: 100, released: May 2004, periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Biomass for Electricity Generation - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This paper examines issues affecting the uses of biomass for electricity generation. It discusses the methodology and underlying assumptions used in the National Energy Modeling System to account for various types of biomass.
released: July 2002, periodicity: One-time, contact: Zia Haq (202)586-2869

Analysis of a 10-Percent Renewable Portfolio Standard - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator Jeff Bingaman on May 8, 2003 to analyze a nationwide Renewable Portfolio Standard program proposed as an amendment to energy legislation pending before the U.S. Senate
pages: 32, released: May 2003, periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2032

Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants With Advanced Technology Scenarios - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecaast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators James Jeffords and Joseph Lieberman on May 17, 2001 to analyze the impacts of technology improvements and other market-based opportunities on the cost of emissions reductions from electricity generators, including nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide
pages: 228, released: October 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

Reducing Emissions of Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, and Mercury from Electric Power Plants - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators Bob Smith, George Voinovich, and Sam Brownback on June 8, 2001 to analyze the impact of various scenarios with alternative power sector emission caps on nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury
pages: 89, released: September 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Chapter 3 - Electricity Market Impacts - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senator David McIntosh on June 29, 2000 to analyze the impacts of imposing caps on power sector emissions of nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury, and carbon dioxide with and without a renewable portfolio standard
pages: 228, released: July 2001, periodicity: One-time, contact: Paul Holtberg (202)586-1284

Electricity Shortage In California: Issues for Petroleum and Natural Gas Study
This report addresses the potential impact of rotating electrical outages on petroleum product and natural gas supply in California. Because the regulatory environment is still constantly changing, the impacts on supply will change as well.
Released: June 2001, Periodicity: One-time, contact: Mark Rodekohr (202)586-1130

Power Plant Emissions Reductions Using a Generation Performance Standard - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - In an earlier analysis completed in response to a request received from Representative David McIntosh, Chairman of the Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs, the Energy Information Administration analyzed the impacts of power sector caps on nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and carbon dioxide emissions, assuming a policy instrument patterned after the sulfur dioxide allowance program created in the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990

pages: 9, released: May 2001, Periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - Trends in Power Plant Operating Costs,
Forecast Analysis - This report includes a series of eight papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets
Released: September 1999, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: Alan Beamon (202) 586-2025

The Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act: A Comparison of Model Results - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Secretary of Energy, Bill Richardson on June 24, 1999 to use the National Energy Modeling System to evaluate the effects of the Administration's restructuring proposal using the parameter settings and assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System analysis as described in the May 1999 publication, Supporting Analysis for the Comprehensive Electricity Act
pages: 78, released: September 1999, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: Alan Beamon (202) 586-2025

Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol - (also available in printer-friendly versionPDF Gif)
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr., and George Brown, Jr., on March 2, 1999 to describe the Energy Information Administration’s analysis of the impacts of an early start on Greenhouse Gas Control

Released: July 1999, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: James Hewlett (202) 586-9536

Analysis of Strategies for Reducing Multiple Emissions from Electric Power Plants: Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxides, Carbon Dioxide, and Mercury and a Renewable Portfolio Standard - Electricity Chapter
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr. and George Brown, Jr., on December 16, 1998 and March 2, 1999 to analyze the impact of the President's Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget, on carbon emissions and U.S. energy use and prices in the 2008-2012 time frame relative to the reference case projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 1999
pages: 101, released: April 1999, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: Paul Holtberg (202) 586-1284

Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets & Economic Activity -Electricity Supply, Electricity Prices
Forecast Analysis - This report responds to a request received from Senators F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr., and George Brown, Jr., on March 3, 1998 to analyze the impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on the U.S. energy markets and the economy in the 2008-2012 time frame with several alternative cases evaluating key uncertainties, including U.S. economic growth, the cost and performance of energy-using technologies, and the possible construction of new nuclear power plants

pages: 247, released: October 1998, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: Alan Beamon (202) 586-2025

Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This paper illustrates that the range of generation prices across the regions of the country can be expected to narrow with competition.
pages: 9, released: July 1998, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: Alan Beamon (202) 586-2025

Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 - Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update, An Exploration of Network Modelling: The Case of NEPOOL
Forecast Analysis - This report includes a series of nine papers, which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets
Released: July 1998, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: James Hewlett (202) 586-9536

Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This paper updates an earlier paper, Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities, (August 1997).  This paper appeared in Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998
pages: 9, released: July 1998, Periodicity: One-time, Contact: Alan Beamon (202) 586-2025

Electricity Prices in Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities PDF Gif
Forecast Analysis - This paper presents some of the potential impacts of the competitive pricing of electricity in the United States, based on widely accepted principles of economic theory.
pages: 119, released: August 1997, Periodicity: One-time, contact: Alan Beamon (202)586-2025

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