Climate Change
Climate Change Indicators in the United States
This figure shows the percentage of the land area of the lower 48 states where a much greater than normal portion of total annual precipitation has come from extreme single-day precipitation events. The bars represent individual years, while the line is a smoothed nine-year moving average.
Data source: NOAA, 2009 3
This figure shows the percentage of the land area of the lower 48 states that experienced much greater than normal precipitation in any given year, which means it scored 2.0 or above on the annual Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The thicker orange line shows a nine-year moving average that smoothes out some of the year-to-year fluctuations, while the straight black line is the trend line that fits the data best.
Data source: NOAA, 2009 4
Key Points
- In recent years, a larger percentage of precipitation has come in the form of intense
single-day events. Eight of the top 10 years for extreme one-day precipitation events have occurred since 1990 (see Figure 1). - The prevalence of extreme single-day precipitation events remained fairly steady between 1910 and the 1980s, but has risen substantially since then. Over the entire period from 1910 to 2008, the prevalence of extreme single-day precipitation events increased at a rate of about half a percentage point per decade (5 percentage points per century) (see Figure 1).
- The percentage of land area experiencing much greater than normal yearly precipitation totals increased between 1895 and 2008. However, there has been much year-to-year variability. In some years there were no abnormally wet areas, while a few others had abnormally high precipitation totals over 10 percent or more of the lower 48 states' land area (see Figure 2).
- Figures 1 and 2 are both consistent with a variety of other studies that have found an increase in heavy precipitation over timeframes ranging from single days to 90-day periods to whole years. 2 For more information on trends in overall precipitation levels, see the U.S. and Global Precipitation indicator.
Background
Heavy precipitation refers to instances during which the amount of precipitation experienced in a location substantially exceeds what is normal. What constitutes a period of heavy precipitation varies according to the location and the season.
Climate change can affect the intensity and frequency of precipitation. Warmer oceans increase the amount of water that evaporates into the air, and warmer air can hold more moisture than cooler air. When this moisture-laden air moves over land, it can produce more intense precipitation—for example, heavier rain and snow storms. 1 The potential impacts of heavy precipitation include crop damage, soil erosion, and an increase in flood risk due to heavy rains. In addition, runoff from precipitation can hurt water quality as pollutants deposited on land wash into water bodies.
Heavy precipitation does not necessarily mean the total amount of precipitation at a location has increased—just that precipitation is occurring in more intense events. However, changes in the intensity of precipitation can also lead to changes in overall precipitation totals.
About the Indicator
Heavy precipitation events can be measured by tracking their frequency, by examining their return period (the chance that the event will be equaled or exceeded in a given year), or by directly measuring the amount of precipitation in a certain period.
One way to track heavy precipitation is by calculating what percentage of a particular location's total precipitation in a given year has come in the form of extreme one-day events—or, in other words, what percentage of precipitation is arriving in short, intense bursts. Figure 1 of this indicator looks at the prevalence of extreme single-day precipitation events over time.
For added insight, this indicator also tracks the occurrence of abnormally high total yearly precipitation. It does so by looking at the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which compares actual yearly precipitation totals with the range of precipitation totals that one would typically expect at a specific location, based on historical data. If a location experiences less precipitation than normal during a particular period, it will receive a negative SPI score, while a period with more precipitation than normal will receive a positive score. The more precipitation (compared with normal), the higher the SPI score. The SPI is a useful way to look at precipitation totals because it allows comparison of different locations and different seasons on a standard scale. Figure 2 shows what percentage of the total area of the lower 48 states had an annual SPI score of 2.0 or above (well above normal) in any given year.
Both parts of this indicator are based on data from a large national network of weather stations compiled by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Indicator Confidence
Weather monitoring stations tend to be closer together in the eastern and central states than in the western states. In areas with fewer monitoring stations, heavy precipitation indicators are less likely to reflect local conditions accurately.
Data Sources
The data used for this indicator were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center. Figure 1 is based on Step #4 of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's U.S. Climate Extremes Index; for data and a description of the index, see: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/ cei.html. Figure 2 is based on the U.S. SPI, which is shown in a variety of maps available online at: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/ research/prelim/drought/ spi.html. The data and metadata used to construct these maps are available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration at: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ data/cirs.
Indicator Documentation
- Download related technical information PDF (7 pp, 51K)