a. Synoptic history
The genesis of Tropical Storm Nadine resulted from the interaction of a strong upper-level trough and a tropical wave. Water vapor imagery showed a distinct and nearly stationary upper-trough extending northeastward from the Leeward Islands across the Atlantic for several days. A cut-off low generated within the trough, moved southwestward, and interacted with a tropical wave that reached the area on 16 October. The system as a whole began to move slowly westward with increasing convection and on the 17th, a broad low to middle level circulation became apparent on visible images. However, it was not until the 19th, when the system became stationary, that ship reports indicated that a surface circulation had developed. It is estimated that a tropical depression formed about 600 n mi southeast of Bermuda at 1200 UTC 19 October.
The depression moved slowly northward and then northeastward around the periphery of the subtropical ridge and ahead of a cold front. The thunderstorm activity became better organized with increasing outflow while the shear relaxed. Based on satellite Dvorak intensity numbers, it is estimated that the depression became Tropical Storm Nadine at 1200 UTC on the 20th. Nadine reached a peak intensity of 50 knots and a minimum pressure of 999 mb at 0000 UTC on the 21st when a possible eye-like feature and an impressive outflow were observed on satellite imagery. Thereafter, the shear increased and convection began to weaken. Nadine interacted with a frontal zone and became a weak extratropical low at 0000 UTC 22 October while moving northeastward. It was then absorbed by a much larger frontal low. The best track is listed in Table 1 and is plotted in Fig. 1.
b. Meteorological statistics
Figure 2 depicts the best track curves and data plots of the maximum sustained 1-min surface winds and minimum central pressure as a function of time. These plots are primarily based on Dvorak satellite classification estimates. A report of 33 knots from the southeast from the vessel Prince of Waves located just east of the cloud system center was used to initiate tropical depression advisories.
c. Casualties and damages
>No casualties or damages were associated with Nadine.
d. Forecast and warning critique
There were too few forecasts associated with Nadine to conduct a meaningful quantitative evaluation. The NCEP global model correctly indicated the development of a tropical cyclone in the area well in advance.
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Figure 1. Best track positions for Tropical Storm Nadine, 19-21 October, 2000.
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Figure 2. Best track maximum sustained wind speed and minimum central pressure for Tropical Storm Nadine.
Table 1. Best track for Tropical Storm Nadine, 19-21 October, 2000. Date/Time
(UTC)Position Pressure
(mb)Wind Speed
(kt)Stage Lat. (°N) Lon. (°W) 19 / 1200 26.2 59.9 1009 25 tropical depression 19 / 1800 27.5 59.4 1008 30 " 20 / 0000 28.7 58.8 1008 30 " 20 / 0600 29.7 58.0 1005 30 " 20 / 1200 30.4 57.2 1003 35 tropical storm 20 / 1800 31.4 56.3 1000 40 " 21 / 0000 32.4 55.2 999 50 " 21 / 0600 33.3 53.5 1000 50 " 21 / 1200 34.1 52.3 1000 50 " 21 / 1800 34.8 51.3 1000 45 " 22 / 0000 35.7 50.5 1004 40 extratropical 22 / 0600 37.0 49.0 1005 40 " 22 / 1200 39.0 47.0 1005 35 " 22/1800 absorbed by a frontal low 21 / 0000 32.4 55.2 999 50 minimum pressure