Tropical Cyclone Report
Hurricane Fabian
27 August - 8 September 2003
Fabian was a long-lived, powerful Cape Verde
hurricane that struck Bermuda with category three intensity. It
caused extensive damage on that island, where it was reported to be
the worst hurricane since 1926.
a. Synoptic History
Fabian's genesis can be traced back to a vigorous
tropical wave that emerged from western Africa on 25 August, and
moved westward through the Cape Verde Islands a day later. By 27
August, the deep convection associated with the system became more
consolidated in a circular area, and it is estimated that a
tropical depression formed at 1800 UTC, centered about 365 n mi
west of the Cape Verde Islands. Fabian's path is shown in
Figure 1,
and time series of the tropical cyclone's maximum sustained wind
and minimum central pressure are displayed in Figure 2 and Figure 3,
respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed
in Table 1. With a favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment
(characterized by vertical shear from 850 to 200 mb of 5-10 kt or
less, sea surface temperatures near 27.5°C), the tropical
cyclone strengthened fairly steadily and became a tropical storm
around 1200 UTC 28 August, and a hurricane by 0000 UTC 30 August
over the east-central tropical Atlantic. Fabian reached its
estimated peak intensity of 125 kt at 1800 UTC 1 September when it
was centered about 265 n mi east-northeast of the northern Leeward
Islands. This hurricane maintained Category 3 or Category 4
intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale for almost a
week.
Fabian was steered on a westward to
west-northwestward heading for several days by deep easterlies to
the south of a subtropical ridge. The forward speed gradually
slowed from 18-19 kt just after genesis to less than 10 kt by 2
September, as the tropical cyclone neared a weakness in the
subtropical ridge produced by a mid-level cyclonic circulation over
the southwestern North Atlantic. Then, the hurricane turned toward
the northwest while continuing to decelerate over the next couple
of days. A large mid-tropospheric trough nearing the east coast of
the United States provided a more northward steering flow, and
Fabian turned north-northwestward to northward with increasing
forward speed. Fabian targeted Bermuda, and struck that island with
an intensity close to 100 kt. The eastern eyewall of the hurricane
moved over Bermuda around 2000 UTC on 5 September. Observers on the
western end of the island reported a brief interlude of blue sky
and winds decreasing to 50-60 kt at various times between 1945 and
2115 UTC, which indicates that they were in the eastern fringes of
Fabian's eye. The center of Fabian did not make landfall. However,
since the eyewall passed over Bermuda, the hurricane made a direct
hit on that island.
After raking Bermuda, the hurricane accelerated
north-northeastward and northeastward, weakening to below 100 kt
after 1800 UTC 6 September. Fabian lost its tropical
characteristics on 8 September while located about 700 n mi
east-northeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. It turned northward the
next day and merged with another extratropical cyclone between
southern Greenland and Iceland.
b. Meteorological Statistics
Observations in Fabian (Figure 2 and Figure 3)
include
satellite-based Dvorak technique intensity estimates from the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the Satellite
Analysis Branch (SAB) and the U. S. Air Force Weather Agency
(AFWA), as well as flight-level and dropwindsonde observations from
flights of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron of
the U. S. Air Force Reserve Command (AFRES) and the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Fabian's peak intensity is estimated to be 125 kt,
based on a 700 mb flight-level wind of 140 kt measured by AFRES
around 1917 UTC 1 September. A minimum central pressure of 942 mb
was measured at that time. A lower central pressure of 939 mb was
measured by NOAA at 2245 UTC 3 September, but maximum flight-level
winds around that time only supported an intensity of 115 kt.
Surface observations in Hurricane Fabian, all from
Bermuda, are listed in Table 2. A sustained (10 min average) wind
speed of 105 kt and a gust to 131 kt were measured by Cable and
Wireless at an elevation of 280 ft above sea level. Sustained 104 kt
winds, with gusts to 127 kt, were observed at Warwick Tower at an
elevation of 220 ft above ground level. Sustained winds of 102 kt
with a gust to 143 kt were measured by Bermuda Harbor Radio at an
elevation of 255 ft above sea level. Since these observations are
unofficial and at elevations significantly higher than 10 m, it is
difficult to use them to make an accurate assessment of the
hurricane's strength when it hit Bermuda. They are, however, not
inconsistent with category three intensity. Unfortunately, due to a
loss of power, the official wind measurements from the Bermuda
Airport (TXKF) anemometer ended at 1935 UTC 5 September, and the
extreme sustained and gust wind speed values were estimated. Ship
and drifting buoy reports of winds of tropical storm force
associated with Fabian are given in Table 3.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Fabian was directly responsible for eight fatalities.
A man drowned in a rip current near Cape Hatteras on 4 September.
Four people drowned when they, and their vehicles, were swept off
of a causeway in Bermuda on 5 September. Three fishermen drowned
when their vessel sank about 350 n mi southeast of St. John's,
Newfoundland on 7 September.
Bermuda was hit hard by Fabian. There was extensive
damage to vegetation and considerable roof damage to houses in
exposed locations. Some buildings had more severe damage, due to
inherent structural weakness in some cases and possibly due to
tornadoes (which were not confirmed) in others.
There were huge (estimated 20 to 30 ft high) battering waves on the south
shore of the island, with the reported storm surge estimated near 10 ft.
Significant structural damage was inflicted as a result of wave action
and/or surge.
Property damage in Bermuda is estimated to be at least 300 million U.S.
dollars.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
In comparison to the long-term average, Fabian's
track was well predicted in most cases. Average official track
errors (with the number of cases in parentheses) for Fabian were 25
(46), 45 (44), 64 (42), 83 (40), 114 (36), 136 (32), and 206 (28) n
mi for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h forecasts,
respectively1.
These errors are considerably (40-50%) lower than the
average official track errors for the 10-yr period 1993-20022
of 45, 81, 116, 150, 225, 282, and 374, respectively.
Overall, the official forecasts were slightly slow with somewhat of
a westward bias. Table 4 lists the average forecast errors for the
various track prediction models and model consensus for comparison
with the official forecast errors. In general the official
forecasts had lower average track errors than any of the individual
models. However, the GUNS and GUNA consensus had average errors
that were a little lower than, or the same as, the official
forecasts at hours 12 through 72.
Average official intensity errors for Fabian were 4,
7, 10, 13, 18, 20, and 21 kt for the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and
120 h forecasts, respectively. For comparison, the average official
intensity errors over the 10-yr period 1993-2002 are 6, 10, 13, 15,
19, 21, and 22 kt, respectively. Thus the intensity forecasts for
Fabian were about the same as the recent historical averages.
Table 5 lists the watches and warnings, all for
Bermuda, associated with Hurricane Fabian. A hurricane watch was
issued 35 h before Fabian's closest approach, and a hurricane
warning was issued 29 h before Fabian's closest approach.
Acknowledgements
We thank Roger Williams, director of the Bermuda
Meteorological Service, for providing meteorological observations
and the information on Fabian's impact on Bermuda.
1All forecast verifications in this report include the depression stage of
the cyclone. National Hurricane Center verifications presented in these
reports prior to 2003 did not include the depression stage.
2
Errors given for the 96 and 120 h periods are averages over the two-year
period 2001-2002.
Table 1: Best track
for Hurricane Fabian, 27 August-8 September 2003.
Date/Time (UTC) | Position | Pressure (mb) | Wind Speed (kt) | Stage |
Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) |
27 / 1800 | 14.6 | 30.7 | 1009 | 25 | tropical
depression |
28 / 0000 | 14.7 | 32.3 | 1008 | 30 | " |
28 / 0600 | 14.9 | 34.2 | 1008 | 30 | " |
28 / 1200 | 15.0 | 36.2 | 1006 | 35 | tropical
storm |
28 / 1800 | 15.1 | 38.2 | 1004 | 40 | " |
29 / 0000 | 15.2 | 40.1 | 1000 | 45 | " |
29 / 0600 | 15.4 | 41.8 | 997 | 50 | " |
29 / 1200 | 15.5 | 43.1 | 997 | 50 | " |
29 / 1800 | 15.8 | 44.3 | 990 | 60 | " |
30 / 0000 | 16.3 | 45.6 | 987 | 65 | hurricane |
30 / 0600 | 16.7 | 46.9 | 984 | 70 | " |
30 / 1200 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 973 | 85 | " |
30 / 1800 | 17.3 | 49.2 | 960 | 100 | " |
31 / 0000 | 17.6 | 50.3 | 952 | 110 | " |
31 / 0600 | 17.8 | 51.4 | 952 | 110 | " |
31 / 1200 | 18.0 | 52.5 | 952 | 110 | " |
31 / 1800 | 18.2 | 53.5 | 948 | 115 | " |
01 / 0000 | 18.3 | 54.3 | 945 | 120 | " |
01 / 0600 | 18.5 | 55.3 | 949 | 120 | " |
01 / 1200 | 18.7 | 56.3 | 949 | 120 | " |
01 / 1800 | 19.0 | 57.3 | 944 | 125 | " |
02 / 0000 | 19.3 | 58.3 | 943 | 125 | " |
02 / 0600 | 19.6 | 59.2 | 945 | 120 | " |
02 / 1200 | 20.1 | 59.9 | 945 | 120 | " |
02 / 1800 | 20.5 | 60.7 | 946 | 120 | " |
03 / 0000 | 20.9 | 61.3 | 945 | 115 | " |
03 / 0600 | 21.3 | 61.8 | 945 | 110 | " |
03 / 1200 | 21.9 | 62.3 | 945 | 110 | " |
03 / 1800 | 22.5 | 62.8 | 944 | 110 | " |
04 / 0000 | 23.2 | 63.0 | 939 | 115 | " |
04 / 0600 | 23.8 | 63.3 | 944 | 105 | " |
04 / 1200 | 24.8 | 63.8 | 944 | 105 | " |
04 / 1800 | 25.8 | 64.3 | 941 | 110 | " |
05 / 0000 | 27.1 | 64.6 | 940 | 115 | " |
05 / 0600 | 28.6 | 65.1 | 946 | 105 | " |
05 / 1200 | 30.1 | 65.3 | 951 | 105 | " |
05 / 1800 | 31.8 | 65.3 | 950 | 105 | " |
06 / 0000 | 33.4 | 64.7 | 953 | 100 | " |
06 / 0600 | 34.9 | 64.0 | 956 | 100 | " |
06 / 1200 | 36.0 | 62.4 | 957 | 100 | " |
06 / 1800 | 36.9 | 60.4 | 958 | 100 | " |
07 / 0000 | 37.9 | 58.2 | 962 | 90 | " |
07 / 0600 | 39.1 | 55.7 | 965 | 85 | " |
07 / 1200 | 40.6 | 53.4 | 967 | 80 | " |
07 / 1800 | 42.3 | 50.7 | 972 | 75 | " |
08 / 0000 | 44.3 | 47.9 | 975 | 70 | " |
08 / 0600 | 46.3 | 44.7 | 977 | 70 | " |
08 / 1200 | 48.7 | 40.8 | 980 | 65 | " |
08 / 1800 | 51.7 | 36.0 | 980 | 65 | extratropical |
09 / 0000 | 54.0 | 32.0 | 980 | 60 | " |
09 / 0600 | 56.0 | 29.0 | 982 | 50 | " |
09 / 1200 | 58.0 | 27.0 | 982 | 50 | " |
09 / 1800 | 60.0 | 27.0 | 990 | 40 | " |
10 / 0000 | | | | | absorbed |
01 / 1800 | 19.0 | 57.3 | 944 | 125 | maximum
intensity |
04 / 0000 | 23.2 | 63.0 | 939 | 115 | minimum pressure |
05 / 2000 | 32.3 | 65.1 | 952 | 100 | closest approach (12 n mi west) to Bermuda |
Table 2: Selected
surface observations for Hurricane Fabian, 5 September
2003.
| Minimum Sea-level Pressure | Maximum Surface Wind Speed (kt) | |
Location | Date/ Time (UTC) | Press. (mb) | Date/ Timea
(UTC) | Sust. Windb
(kts) | Peak Gust (kts) | Storm Surgec
(ft) | Storm Tided
(ft) | Rain (storm total) (in) |
Bermuda |
Bermuda Airport (TXKF) | 2030 | 964.0 | 2055 | 105e | 130e | | | 1.82f |
TXKF anemometer siteg | | | 1927 | 72 | 102 | | | |
Cable and Wirelessh | | | 1940 | 105 | 131 | | | |
Bermuda Harbour Radioi | 2050 | 961.0 | 1855 | 102 | 143 | | | |
Weatherbird (research vessel)j | 2048 | 961.0 | 1855 | 67 | 95 | | | |
Pitt's Bay (Hamilton)k | 2000 | 960.0 | | | | | | |
Cambridge Beaches Hotell | 2100 | 953.0 | | | | | | |
Southhamptonm | 2000 | 954.5 | | | | | | |
Warwick Towern | | | 1900 | 98 | 120 | | | |
Warwick Towero | | | 1900 | 104 | 127 | | | |
aTime is for sustained wind.
bAveraging period is 10 min.
cStorm surge is water height
above normal astronomical tide level.
dStorm tide is water height above
National Geodetic Vertical Datum (1929 mean sea level).
eTXKF maximum winds estimated at weather service
building 130 ft above sea level.
fRain
data unreliable but total rainfall amounts were unlikely to exceed
3 in. Most observations reported only light rain and low visibility
due to sea spray.
g
Airfield anemometer 40 ft above sea level; power failed at mast base due to
storm surge at 1935 UTC.
hInstrument height 280 ft above sea level.
iInstrument height 255 ft above sea level;
mast fell down shortly after peak gust at 1935 UTC.
Pressure from barograph trace.
jWind instrument not well exposed.
kVoluntary observer (barograph).
lWest end of Bermuda; pressure from barograph (time not
calibrated).
mVoluntary observer; Davis Instruments.
nInstrument height 157 ft above ground level.
oInstrument height 220 ft above ground level. |
Table 3: Available
ship and drifting buoy reports with winds of at least 34 kt for
Hurricane Fabian, 2003.
Ship Name or Call Sign | Date/Time (UTC) | Lat. (°N) | Lon. (°W) | Wind dir/speed (deg/kt) | Pressure (mb) |
ELRU8 | 03 / 1800 | 20.6 | 59.4 | 180 / 35 | 1014.5 |
ELZU6 | 05 / 0000 | 29.0 | 61.7 | 150 / 37 | 1014.0 |
ELZU6 | 05 / 0900 | 30.9 | 63.0 | 140 / 41 | 1010.0 |
ELZU6 | 05 / 2200 | 34.3 | 66.1 | 040 / 43 | 1003.0 |
3FKD9 | 07 / 1200 | 38.4 | 51.1 | 180 / 45 | 1007.3 |
44551 | 07 / 2000 | 43.5 | 45.7 | 150 / 39 | 1006.1 |
44551 | 07 / 2100 | 43.5 | 45.7 | 150 / 39 | 1003.2 |
VEP717 | 08 / 0300 | 46.7 | 48.7 | 010 / 35 | 993.8 |
3FPK7 | 08 / 0300 | 46.7 | 48.0 | 320 / 36 | 990.7 |
HP6038 | 08 / 0300 | 46.4 | 48.4 | 040 / 40 | 990.9 |
ELVX4 | 08 / 0600 | 43.0 | 40.8 | 200 / 35 | 1011.0 |
VEP717 | 08 / 0600 | 46.7 | 48.7 | 350 / 40 | 995.2 |
3FPK7 | 08 / 0600 | 46.7 | 48.0 | 340 / 37 | 992.7 |
HP6038 | 08/ 0600 | 46.4 | 48.4 | 310 / 41 | 993.6 |
62711 | 08 / 0700 | 47.3 | 45.8 | 320 / 70 | 985.7 |
62711 | 08 / 0800 | 47.3 | 45.8 | 350 / 45 | 985.5 |
HP6038 | 08 / 0900 | 46.4 | 48.4 | 290 / 36 | 1001.9 |
|
Table 4: Preliminary forecast
evaluation (heterogeneous sample) for Hurricane Fabian, 27 August-8
September 2003. Forecast errors (n mi) are
followed by the number of forecasts in parentheses. Errors smaller
than the NHC official forecast are shown in bold-face type.
Verification includes the depression stage, but
does not include the extratropical stage, if any.
Forecast Technique | Period (hours) |
12 | 24 | 36 | 48 | 72 | 96 | 120 |
CLP5 | 34 (46) | 78 (44) | 114 (42) | 155 (40) | 253 (36) | 351 (32) | 413 (28) |
GFNI | 27 (38) | 52 (37) | 73 (35) | 90 (33) | 147 (30) | | |
GFDI | 26 (43) | 49 (42) | 71 (40) | 96 (37) | 159 (33) | 197 (29) | 261 (25) |
GFDL | 28 (45) | 50 (43) | 71 (41) | 92 (38) | 154 (34) | 201 (30) | 240 (26) |
LBAR | 31 (45) | 68 (43) | 99 (41) | 132 (39) | 219 (35) | 315 (31) | 422 (27) |
AVNI | 27 (44) | 51 (42) | 77 (40) | 114 (38) | 181 (34) | 191 (30) | 275 (24) |
AVNO | 32 (45) | 55 (43) | 77 (41) | 109 (39) | 177 (35) | 207 (31) | 250 (25) |
AEMI | 26 (24) | 51 (22) | 74 (21) | 100 (20) | 177 (18) | 277 (13) | 469 (11) |
BAMD | 31 (46) | 62 (44) | 88 (42) | 112 (40) | 193 (36) | 260 (32) | 356 (28) |
BAMM | 37 (46) | 73 (44) | 106 (42) | 140 (40) | 219 (36) | 286 (32) | 358 (28) |
BAMS | 50 (45) | 99 (43) | 143 (41) | 181 (39) | 259 (35) | 315 (31) | 380 (27) |
NGPI | 24
(42) | 46 (40) | 73 (38) | 98 (36) | 156 (32) | 220 (28) | 274 (24) |
NGPS | 27 (43) | 42
(41) | 66 (39) | 93 (37) | 149 (33) | 216 (29) | 268 (25) |
UKMI | 29 (44) | 53 (42) | 69 (40) | 80 (38) | 103 (34) | 190 (30) | 248 (26) |
UKM | 29 (23) | 52 (22) | 77 (21) | 89 (20) | 100 (18) | 171 (16) | 229 (14) |
A98E | 32 (46) | 61 (44) | 102 (42) | 144 (40) | 248 (36) | 327 (32) | 403 (28) |
A9UK | 28 (23) | 57 (22) | 83 (21) | 109 (20) | 176 (18) | | |
GUNS | 19 (41) | 37 (40) | 55 (38) | 75 (35) | 109 (31) | 159 (27) | 216 (23) |
GUNA | 19 (41) | 37 (40) | 56 (38) | 77 (35) | 114 (31) | 144 (27) | 211 (21) |
OFCL | 25 (46) | 45 (44) | 64 (42) | 83 (40) | 114 (36) | 136 (32) | 206 (28) |
NHC Official (1993-2002 mean) | 45 (2985) | 81 (2726) | 116 (2481) | 150 (2230) | 225 (1819) | 282 (265) | 374 (216) |
|
Table 5: Watch and warning summary for Hurricane Fabian,
September 2003.
Date/Time | Action | Location |
04 / 0900 | Hurricane Watch | Bermuda |
04 / 1500 | Hurricane Warning | Bermuda |
06 / 0300 | Hurricane Warning
Discontinued | Bermuda |
Figure 1:
Best track
positions for Hurricane Fabian, August/September 2003. Track during
the extratropical stage is based on analyses from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.
Figure 2:
Selected wind
observations and best track maximum sustained surface wind speed
curve for Hurricane Fabian, August/September 2003. Aircraft
observations have been adjusted for elevation using 90%, 80%, and
80% reduction factors for observations from 700 mb, 850 mb, and
1500 ft, respectively. Dropwindsonde observations include actual 10
m winds (sfc), as well as surface estimates derived from the mean
wind over the lowest 150 m of the wind sounding (LLM), and from the
sounding boundary layer mean (MBL). Estimates during the
extratropical stage are based on analyses from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.
Figure 3:
Selected
pressure observations and best track minimum central pressure curve
for Hurricane Fabian, August/September 2003. Objective Dvorak
estimates represent linear averages over a three-hour period
centered on the nominal observation time. Estimates during the
extratropical stage are based on analyses from the NOAA Ocean
Prediction Center.
|