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The MOS Technique: General Information
For more specific information, please visit the following pages:
Training Material
Slide presentations suitable for use in teaching students, forecasters, and general users:
General MOS Background
Model Output Statistics (MOS) relates observed weather elements to appropriate variables
(predictors) via a statistical approach. These predictors are:
- NWP Model Forecast
- Prior Obersvations
- Geoclimatic Data
- Statistical Method: Multiple Linear Regression
What MOS Does
- Objectively interprets NWP Model based on historical sample
- Predicts events forced by synoptic-scale systems
- Corrects for certain systematic NWP model biases
- Mimics conceptual forecast models
- Quantifies uncertainty in NWP model forecasts
- Accounts for deterioration NWP model skill with increasing forecast projection
- Accounts for some local effects
- Incorporates climatic considerations
What MOS Does Not Do
- Account for forecaster excitement factor
- Predict events forced by mesoscale features
- Correct for systematic NWP model errors related to map type
or synoptic situation
- Correct for certain deficiencies in NWP model physics, analysis
schemes, or parameterizations
- Account for changes to NWP model components
- Account for EVERY local effect
- Account for unusual climatic conditions
Last Updated April 28, 2003
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Page last Modified:
Thursday, 02 October 2008 17:13 UTC
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