By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
4:30 p.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch has been set for Okinawa. Storm's moving away, but still feeling effects. They're keeping an eyeball on Typhoon Sanba, in the unlikely event it decides to Samba back our way. Normal operations to resume shortly.
Sasebo Naval Base set TCCOR 1 at 10 a.m. Local forecast call for 35- to 45-mph sustained winds and 55-mph gusts Monday morning.
Area IV installations in Daegu are now in TCCOR 2. TCCOR 1 to be set this evening.
Daegu High, Daegu American, C. Turner Joy, Darby Elementary and E.J. King Schools are closed Monday due to Typhoon Sanba, DODDS Pacific officials announced Sunday. More closures, if needed, will be announced later.
Area IV/Daegu still expecting 69-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts on Monday. Keep tuned to USAG Daegu's Facebook page for facilities closure announcements.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
7:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: We're now getting battered by the back side of Typhoon Sanba. Winds have shifted completely around from the north and northwest to west and southwest. Peak winds were felt at 6 a.m. at Kadena, 62-mph sustained winds and 106-mph gusts. That's bled off some, to 56 and 74, far from what forecasts predicted, but still qulte trifling. Be careful. Stay inside until Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness Storm Watch is declared, sometime this afternoon.
Latest forecast wind timeline
-- Maximum 69-mph sustained winds, 123-mph gusts, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, noon Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
Sasebo Naval Base remains in TCCOR 2 and is still forecast to experience south-southwesterly 60-mph gusts Sunday evening into Monday.
Korea, specifically Pusan, Chinhae Naval Base and Area IV installations around Daegu are still in for a bit of a pounding as Sanba is forecast to remain a powerful Category 1-equivalent typhoon as it makes landfall on Korea's south coast at 9 a.m. Monday. It should keep its intensity, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, as it crosses the peninsula and exits near Kangnung into the Sea of Japan (or East Sea) early Monday evening. West Coast bases should feel some of Sanba's effects as well.
5:20 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E (emergency) at 5:11 a.m. No outside activity allowed. Stay indoors until TCCOR Storm Watch.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
1:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan time: Latest forecast wind timeliine from Kadena Air Base's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Expect upgrade to Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-E around 2 a.m. or thereabouts, depending on wind speeds. Closest point of approach 14 miles east at 6 a.m.
-- Sustained 35-mph winds or greater, occurring now.
-- Sustained 40-mph winds or greater, occuring now.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, occuring now.
-- Maximum 127-mph sustained winds, 155-mph gusts, 4 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 58 mph, 11 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 40 mph, 2 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds receding below 35 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
12:30 a.m. Sunday, Sept. 16, Japan/Korea time: It’s happening, folks. OK, doubters and naysayers on Okinawa, it’s probably not going to be as bad as Bart was 13 years ago. Touche. Typhoon Sanba will still pack Category 3-equivalent winds of 127 mph and gusts up to 155 as it crosses Okinawa later this morning. The island remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C early Sunday; expect an upgrade around 2 a.m. or thereabouts.
The eye is about 35 miles across and the storm is moving at about 14 mph. So parts of Okinawa might experience an unwarranted calm just before dawn. I say again: Avoid the temptation to go outside. You never know when the winds will kick back up again.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
11:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 at 11:30 p.m. Destructive winds of 58 mph or greater are anticipated within 24 hours.
10:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Okinawa entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1-C (caution) at 10:21 p.m. Winds of 44 mph and 58-mph gusts are occurring. Stay tuned for upgrade to 1E.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
8 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: OK, now we’re at Sanba’s mercy. No scientific formula to determine EXACTLY when we move off of Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1 into 1-C or 1-E. It all depends on how soon we experience SUSTAINED 40-mph winds (1-C) and 58-mph winds (1-E).
That said, Kadena remains in TCCOR 1, while Sasebo Naval Base in southwestern Japan and all Area IV installations in Daegu, Chinhae and Pusan, South Korea, remain in TCCOR 3. Expect those to change in very short order as Sanba Sambas further north.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 15, 2012
3:30 p.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Sasebo Naval Base and all Area IV installations in the Daegu area of South Korea accelerated into Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 early Saturday afternoon.
Though Typhoon Sanba is forecast to roar 110 miles west of Sasebo around 7 a.m. Sunday, officials posted TCCOR 3 as a precaution. The base is forecasting maximum winds of 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 overnight Sunday into Monday, with showers and thunderstorms throughout the period.
Facilities closures at Camps George, Henry and Walker and K-2 Air Base will be determined Sunday, public affairs officials announced on the USAG Daegu Facebook page.
U.S. Army Garrison Yongsan’s official Facebook page warns residents in Korea to expect as much as 7 inches of rain and sustained 45-mph winds and 60-mph gusts after Sanba makes landfall around mid-morning Monday, still packing significant winds at its center, 86-mph sustained and 104-mph gusts.
Chinhae Naval Base and Pusan should feel the worst of it, with Daegu next, almost directly in Sanba’s path. Sanba should rumble 30 miles west of Chinhae and 57 miles west of Pusan around noon to 1 p.m., 21 miles west of Daegu at 3 p.m., 85 miles east of Kunsan Air Base at 2 p.m., 82 miles east of Osan Air Base and Camp Humphreys at 5 p.m. and 85 miles east of Yongsan and Camp Red Cloud between 6 and 7 p.m.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
10:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Okinawa has entered Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 1. Destructive 58-mph winds or greater anticipated within 12 hours.
The magic hour when flights into and out of Naha International Airport are concerned seems to be 2 p.m. All flights serving Naha through the airports curfew have been canceled.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
9:30 a.m. Saturday, Sept. 15, Japan time: Sanba was downgraded to regular ol’ typhoon status overnight Friday, but it remains a dangerous Category 4-equivalent storm as it bears down on Okinawa. The island remained in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 early Saturday morning; TCCORs are expected to change rapidly as Sanba rumbles northwest toward closest point of approach, forecast to be 16 miles east of Kadena Air Base at 4 a.m. Sunday. It will still be packing sustained 127-mph sustained winds and 155-mph gusts at its center.
Latest forecast wind timeline courtesy of Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight:
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
Midnight Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 2 was declared for Okinawa at midnight Friday.
After rapidly intensifying by 60 knots overnight Thursday to a peak of 155 knots Friday – the strongest I’ve ever witnessed in nearly 10 years of doing this – Super Typhoon Sanba’s intensity has diminished by 20 knots in the last 12 hours as it trudges north at about 13 mph.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 14, 2012
7 p.m. Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: Very, very heartening to see people bustling hither and thither through the Foster commissary this afternoon. Took an hour for me to get what little needed to be done for the office, but I’ll venture to say the commissaries and PXs all around island made a KILLING on this day. And more shopping will likely be done Saturday in the storm’s run-up by those who haven’t done so (and why, oh, why have you not done so yet?).
Seriously, the time for preparation is running out remorselessly, like sands through the hourglass. We’re already seeing/feeling Super Typhoon Sanba’s most outer bands. If it’s sitting outside the garage, put it inside. If the garage door is still open, shut it. If the trampoline is still up, take it down. If the grill and butane can are still outside, wheel them in. If your satellite dish is grievously exposed to the fiercest winds, you might want to consider taking it down. And if your car windows are open, by all means shut them (you’d be surprised how many folks leave their car windows open during a typhoon).
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
12:30 p.m. Friday, Sept. 14, Japan time: The bad news: I have never, in all my years of following tropical cyclones, seen a storm this intense here in the Pacific. Super Typhoon Sanba is peaking in intensity at 155 knots, or 178.25 mph, today along with gusts near 220 mph (!!!) – a Category 5-equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale – and will remain close to that for next day or so.
The really bad news: We’re looking at a direct or almost-direct hit on the south part of Okinawa come early Sunday morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track has Sanba roaring 8 miles southwest of Kadena Air Base at 6 a.m. Sunday, at which point it will have weakened slightly but should still be packing Category 4-equivalent 144-mph sustained winds and 173-mph gusts at its center. The next Bart, perhaps.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
Okinawa enters Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3 at 1:13 a.m. Japan time.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
11:30 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Sanba was upgraded to super-typhoon status late Thursday evening by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. It’s winds are now 155-mph sustained with 190-mph gusts at its center, and it’s still forecast to peak at 161-mph sustained and 198-mph gusts as it rumbles north. Worse, Sanba is now moving straight north and its forecast track now brings it 37 miles west of Okinawa at 9 a.m. Sunday. Updated forecast wind timeline when it becomes available.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
10:15 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Oooh, baby, this storm is becoming a whopper, to borrow a 1930s expression. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for Sanba to become a super typhoon early Friday, and expects it to top out at 161-mph sustained winds and 196-mph gusts later in the day.
Sanba’s winds should then recede some as it approaches Okinawa. It’s forecast to roar 53 miles southwest of the island at 10 a.m. Sunday, still packing Category 4-equivalent 138-mph sustained winds and 167-mph gusts at its center.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 13, 2012
2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Wind parameters pretty much remain the same, except for adjustments of an hour or two here and there in the forecast wind timeline. Okinawa remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 4 at the moment; expect that to change Friday morning. Sanba forecast to rumble 40 miles west of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday.
As I suspected, the Yokota at Kubasaki and Kadena at Daegu High football games have been wiped off the boards as a result of Sanba’s approach. Oh, they’d be able to play the games, yes; the teams just couldn’t fly home on Sunday when the weather is forecast to be at its peak. DODDS Pacific doth not like student-athletes to miss class because they’re stranded somewhere by bad weather. Safety and academics are top priorities.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2012
9:45 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 13, Japan time: Can’t emphasize enough; this could be “the one.” The latest Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track has Sanba roaring 40 miles southwest of Okinawa at 2 p.m. Sunday, packing Category 4-equivalent winds at its center and exposing Okinawa to its east quadrants.
Those are typically the worst quadrants because they carry with them all the nastiness that Sanba will have sopped up from warmer, southern ocean waters. Worse, Sanba’s forward motion appears to have slowed, giving it more time to nourish itself with tropical moisture.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 12, 2012
Shirt tailing onto previous question-and-answer blog posts, here are a few questions that crossed my desk in the last day or so, and what to do to ensure these matters are taken care of:
Q) Dave, we have such a bunch of worry warts on this island. Everybody made such a big deal out of Typhoon Bolaven last month, and it turned out to be next to nothing. Now, all I’m hearing is about how Typhoon Sanba will be “the big one.” I tire of the exaggerating because none of these storms ever turn out to be as bad as everybody says. What’s up with that?
A) Sort of like the lesson we learned from the “Boy Who Cried Wolf” children’s tale. Never, ever, ever take that attitude. All it takes is one typhoon to be “the one,” just as when the boy cried, "Wolf! A wolf, indeed!" All it takes if for you to let your guard down when “the one” hits. And you end up being sorry because you took the storm too lightly; thus, you didn’t prepare properly. You didn’t stock up on water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a portable radio and batteries, diapers and sanitizer for the little one and pet food for your furry friends, didn’t go to the ATM, didn’t gas up; all the little things that ensure you’re prepared, even if all you get is banana winds. Murphy’s Law loves to pitch tent right in the middle of the home that didn’t prepare for the storm. Don’t let that home be yours. You never know when the next one will resemble Typhoon Bart, which tore apart the island over a two-day span in September 1999.
Q) Dave, we at the 18th Wing Weather Flight have fielded tons of phone calls about the Air Force Ball on Saturday. One of our techs received no fewer than 30 calls, mostly about the reschedule date, even little things like fingernails, lipstick and hair. Please get the word out to people to not phone the weather flight for non-operational questions.
A) You heard them. The folks at the Weather Flight are busy doing everything from updating their web products, storm bulletins, wind timelines and the five-day forecast to briefing the 18th Wing commanding officer on tropical cyclone condition of readiness upgrade recommendations, when the wing should start tying down or evacuating aircraft to safe-haven destinations. As for the Air Force Ball, somehow, I doubt the Weather Flight would have much information about it. No makeup date has been announced, as far as I know; heck, it hasn’t been canceled yet, as far as I know.
Q) Dave, during the last typhoon, I gazed out the window after TCCOR 1-E had been declared and I saw that the neighbor next door had not put away his children’s toys and bicycles. He even left the trampoline outside. I heard word that another trampoline was sent airborne on one base, and it lodged into power pole and caused the electricity to go out. What’s up with that?
A) You might risk being viewed as a busybody (or as my Yiddish-fluent grandmother used to say, “Yente”) by the neighbor, but it’s always prudent to remind them – and make sure you do this in advance of the storm – that even the most innocuous, small objects can become dangerous projectiles in winds of 58 mph or greater. Because of a trampoline’s construction, in the right set of wind circumstances, yes, it can be propelled through the air, parachute-like, and break house or car windows and yes, even fly high enough to sever power lines or damage transformers. At Category 4-equivalent wind speeds, even pieces of paper or cardboard can be dangerous.
Q) Dave, I’m an expectant mother in her 37th week. When should pregnant women head to the hospital and how long should they be prepared to stay?
A) According to U.S. Naval Hospital Okinawa officials, women in their 37th week may report to the hospital at or prior to declaration of TCCOR 1-C (caution); at that point, most outdoor activity begins to shut down and everybody heads inside to hunker down. Bring a change of clothing and a toothbrush, and be prepared to stay until TCCOR SW (Storm Watch) is declared.
Q) Dave, what happens if the Yokota at Kubasaki football game Saturday can't be played? That one counts toward Division I title-game berths. Not to mention, it's between the teams that played for the title last year. Both teams don't have a corresponding bye week the rest of the season.
A) According to DODDS Pacific Far East athletics coordinator Don Hobbs, a decision on the fate of that game, plus the Kadena at Daegu High game, will be made sometime Thursday afternoon. As the weather stands now, it looks as if the games themselves could be played, but neither Kadena nor Yokota could fly back home on Sunday. It's DODDS Pacific's policy to ensure that students who travel to a DODDS-sponsored athletic event miss as little school as possible in the process.
Got any typhoon-related questions? Feel free to post them in the comments section, or write me at ornauerd@pstripes.osd.mil.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: September 10, 2012
6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Just two days into its existence, Sanba has already been upgraded to Category 1-equivalent typhoon status, and continues its rapid intensification. Joint Typhoon Warning Center now forecasts Sanba to roar 42 miles southwest of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday, packing sustained 132-mph winds and 161-mph gusts at its center. This thing is NO JOKE, people. Every chance it could achieve super-typhoon status. Best to be prepared.
Sanba has slowed somewhat and is tracking more northwest than earlier forecast. Not good news in one respect, in that Sanba is nourishing itself over warm ocean waters. But Sanba appears as if it will continue on course for an almost-direct hit on Okinawa.
Latest forecast wind timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 8 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 138-mph gusts, 3 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 6 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 10 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, midnight Sunday.
Start preparing. Now.
5:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: This thing continues to get bigger, fatter and monstrous with every passing warning from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Latest forecast wind timeline as of this afternoon:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 9 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 6 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 127-mph winds, 144-mph gusts, 11 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 4 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 9 p.m. Sunday.
Clearly, Sanba is fast approaching the no-joke stage. I know, I know; Bolaven was supposed to be, too (and was for Camp Schwab and Okuma). But far better to be safe than sorry and treat Sanba as the "boy who cried wolf."
More later.
1 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 12, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba slowed early this morning, then yawed a bit west, but is still forecast to make an almost-direct hit on Okinawa early Sunday morning. Closest point of approach is forecast to be 30 miles southwest at 8 a.m. Sunday.
Here's the initial wind forecast timeline from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight:
-- 35-mph sustained winds and greater, 3 p.m. Saturday.
-- 40-mph sustained winds and greater, 7 p.m. Saturday.
-- 58-mph sustained winds and greater, 1 a.m. Sunday.
-- Maximum 104-mph sustained winds, 127-mph gusts, 7 a.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 58 mph, 1 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, 5 p.m. Sunday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 7 p.m. Sunday.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center's forecast track has Sanba rolling through the Okinawa area rather quickly, then steaming north toward the Korean peninsula early next week.
Keep in mind, it's still a bit early, only more than a day since Sanba spawned, so things could still change.
In the meantime, better to be safe than sorry. Time to plan those visits to the PX, ATM, gasoline stand and commissary, and begin a general cleanup around home and office.
Midnight Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Tropical Storm Sanba continues to develop rapidly, although it's moving north-northwest at a pretty good clip, 14 mph, which affords it less opportunity to nourish itself over warm west-central Pacific waters. Still, Okinawa should be bracing for a wacky, wet Sunday as Sanba roars 48 miles southwest around 6 a.m., packing sustained 115-mph winds and 144-mph gusts at its center.
5 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: In very short order, Sanba, less than a day old, has mushroomed into a tropical storm. And it appears headed closer to Okinawa than first forecast this morning. Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track has Sanba roaring 55 miles southwest of Okinawa at mid-day Sunday, packing sustained 110-mph winds and 132-mph gusts at its center.
4:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Make that 104-mph sustained winds and 127-mph gusts as Tropical Depression Sanba is now forecast to rumble 97 miles southwest of Kadena at 9 a.m. Sunday.
11 a.m. Tuesday, Sept. 11, Japan time: Here we go again. A new tropical depression spawned overnight near Palau. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast calls for 17W to turn north and make a beeline toward Okinawa, packing 92-mph sustained winds and 115-mph gusts as it creeps within 97 miles of Okinawa early Sunday morning. As with all tropical cyclones, this one’s in the early stages, so things could change. Stay tuned to PST, AFN Okinawa Wave 89.1 FM, your commanders’ access channels and Facebook pages.
