How Strikes Affect CES Estimates
Employment
Anyone paid for working any portion of the
reference pay period (pay period that includes the 12th
of the month) is counted as employed. Therefore, to be
counted as not employed for purposes of the CES survey, a
person on strike or strike-related layoff must not receive pay
for the entire reference pay period.
Average weekly hours (AWH) and Average Hourly Earnings
(AHE)
These are hours for which production workers are paid for work
or on paid leave for the reference pay period (including paid
vacation, holidays, sick leave or other paid leave).
When strikers or laid off employees work part but not
all of the reference pay period, then they are counted
as employed according to the CES survey but with
reduced hours. The magnitude of the reduction on
average weekly hours depends on the proportion of workers in the
industrys sample with reduced hours and the number of hours
they worked.
When workers are on strike or layoff for an entire
pay period, they can affect these estimates in two ways:
-
Within-industry effectsFor
the specific industry involved in the strike, estimates
are affected only if hours or earnings of the persons on
strike or layoff differ significantly from the specific
industry's average hours or earnings. The impact is
phased in slowly over the months the strike continues.
Because of confidentiality requirements, BLS cannot
provide the impact of a particular strike and related
shutdowns on average weekly hours or average hourly
earnings for a specific industry.
-
Sum-across-industries effectsThe
absence of persons on strike or layoff from payrolls may
affect average weekly hours or average hourly earnings at
higher levels of industry aggregation. If workers in the
specific industry involved in the strike work shorter
hours or earn less than workers in other industries in
the aggregation, the hours and earnings estimates for the
aggregation would be higher. If workers in the specific
industry involved in the strike work longer hours or earn
more than the workers in other industries in the
aggregation, the hours and earnings estimates for the
aggregation would be lower.
Suppose that workers strike in a high-paid private
manufacturing industry. The estimates of average hourly
earnings at higher levels of industry aggregation (e.g.,
for all manufacturing workers and for all workers in the
private sector) will be lower because there are fewer
workers in a high-paid industry. This is in addition to
any within industry impact their absence from payrolls
may have had.
Example
January with reference week Sunday 1/11 to Saturday 1/17
February with reference week Sunday 2/8 to Saturday 2/14
Company A strike: Strike/layoff activity. (This company has a
weekly pay period.)
Date |
Plant |
Activity |
Workers Involved |
Comments |
1/9 |
1 |
strike |
2,000 |
on strike the whole reference pay
period |
1/13 |
2 |
strike |
1,500 |
on strike part of the reference pay
period |
1/18 |
3 |
layoffs |
3,000 |
laid off after the reference pay
period |
The strike is settled February 19. All workers are called back
to work February 20.
Effect on January employment: |
employment level and over-the-month change lowered by
2,000 |
Effect on February employment: |
employment level lowered by total of 6,500;
over-the-month change lowered by 4,500 |
Effect on January AWH: |
reduced slightly by the 1,500 on strike part of the
reference pay period* |
Effect on February AWH: |
the January effect is reversed because the workers
with shorter hours in that month are off payrolls* |
* Both the January and February AWH and AHE also could be
affected if strikers normal hours and/or hourly earnings
differ significantly from industry average.
Note: For confidentiality reasons, CES staff cannot
provide company-specific information, including dates or workers
involved in strike/layoffs, other than what is already
publicly available at the time of the strike. Contact the
company or news sources for more specific information.
Last Modified Date: October 16, 2001