Professional Experience

• • Senior Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  • 2010 - present

• • Section Chief

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  • 2004 - 2010

• • Economist

    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

  • 1983 - 2004

• • Consultant

    International Monetary Fund

  • 1995 - present

• • Research Professor

    George Washington University

  • 2011 - present

• • Adjunct Professor

    George Washington University

  • 2010

• • Visiting Consultant

    Statistics Norway

  • 2010

• • Erskine Research Fellow

    University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand

  • 1998

• • Visiting Consultant

    Reserve Bank of Australia

  • 1998

• • Visiting Consultant

    Bank of Norway

  • 1995 - 1997

• • Visiting Consultant

    Reserve Bank of Australia

  • 1993 - 1994

• • Visiting Consultant

    World Bank

  • 1999

• • Adjunct Professor

    George Washington University

  • 1999

• • Adjunct Professor

    George Washington University

  • 1996 - 1997

Publications

• Ericsson, Neil R. (forthcoming). "Comments on Michael Clements and David Hendry's Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (forthcoming). "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Steven B. Kamin (2009). "Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand," in Castle, Jennifer L., Neil Shephard eds., The Methodology and Practice of Econometrics. A Festschrift in Honour of David F. Hendry. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (2008). "The Fragility of Sensitivity Analysis: An Encompassing Perspective," International Finance Discussion Papers 959. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., and David F. Hendry (2008). "Cointegration," in Darity, William A. ed., International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 2nd Ed. Detroit: Macmillan Reference USA, pp. 2-4.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Steven Kamin (2008). "Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Argentine Broad Money Demand," International Finance Discussion Papers 943. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Campos, Julia, and Neil R. Ericsson (2005). "Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Consumers' Expenditure in Venezuela," in Campos, Julia, Neil Ericsson R. and David Hendry F. eds., General-to-Specific Modelling Vol 2. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass: Elgar, pp. 622-636.
• Campos, Julia, Neil R. Ericsson, and David F. Hendry (2005). "General-to-Specific Modeling: An Overview and Selected Bibliography," International Finance Discussion Papers 838. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Campos, Julia, Neil R. Ericsson, and David F. Hendry (2005). "Introduction: General-to-Specific Modelling," in Campos, Julia, Neil Ericsson R. and David Hendry F. eds., General-to-Specific Modelling, Vol. 1. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass: Elgar, pp. xi-xci.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (2005). "Parameter Constancy, Mean Square Forecast Errors, and Measuring Forecast Performance: An Exposition, Extensions, and Illustration," in Campos, Julia, Neil Ericsson R. and David Hendry F. eds., General-to-Specific Modelling Vol 2. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass: Elgar, pp. 331-361.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Jaime Marquez (2005). "Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models," in Campos, Julia, Neil Ericsson R. and David Hendry F. eds., General-to-Specific Modelling Vol 2. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass: Elgar, pp. 362-374.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Kevin M. Prestiwch (2005). "The UK Demand for Broad Money Over the Long Run," Economics Papers W29. University of Oxford, Nuffield College, Economics Group.
• Ericsson, Neil R., Julia Campos, and Hong-Anh Tran (2005). "PC-Give and David Hendry's Econometric Methodology," in Campos, Julia, Neil Ericsson R. and David Hendry F. eds., General-to-Specific Modelling, Vol. 1. Cheltenham, U.K. and Northampton, Mass: Elgar, pp. 140-250.
• Ericsson, Neil (2004). "The ET Interview: Professor David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 811. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (2004). "The ET Interview: Professor David F. Hendry," Econometric Theory, vol. 20, no. 4, pp. 743-804.
• Kamin, Steven B., and Neil R. Ericsson (2003). "Dollarization in Post-Hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 22, no. 2, pp. 185-211.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and James G. MacKinnon (2002). "Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration," Econometrics Journal, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 285-318.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (2001). "Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," in Hendry, David,F., Neil Ericsson R. eds., Understanding Economic Forecasts. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, pp. 68-92.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (2001). "Forecast Uncertainty in Economic Modeling," International Finance Discussion Papers 697. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon (2001). "A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan and His Contributions to Econometrics," International Finance Discussion Papers 700. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., Esfandiar Maasoumi, and Grayham E. Mizon (2001). "A Retrospective on J. Denis Sargan," Econometric Reviews, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 133-157.
• Ericsson, Neil R., John S. Irons, and Ralph W. Tryon (2001). "Output and Inflation in the Long Run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 241-253.
• Ericsson, N. R., E. Maasoumi, and G. E. Mizon (2001). "A Retrospective on J.D. Sargan and His Contribution to Econometrics," Discussion Paper Series in Economics and Econometrics 0108. University of Southampton, Department of Economics.
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (2001). Understanding economic forecasts. Cambridge and London: MIT Press.
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (2001). "Understanding Economic Forecasts: Editor's Introduction," in Hendry, David,F., Neil Ericsson R. eds., Understanding Economic Forecasts. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, pp. 1-14.
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (2001). "Understanding Economic Forecasts: Epilogue," in Hendry, David,F., Neil Ericsson R. eds., Understanding Economic Forecasts. Cambridge and London: MIT Press, pp. 185-191.
• Campos, Julia, and Neil R. Ericsson (2000). "Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Consumers' Expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 663. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (2000). "Predictable Uncertainty in Economic Forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 695. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., John S. Irons, and Ralph W. Tryon (2000). "Output and Inflation in the Long Run," International Finance Discussion Papers 687. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Campos, Julia, and Neil R. Ericsson (1999). "Constructive Data Mining: Modeling Consumers' Expenditure in Venezuela," Econometrics Journal, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 226-240.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1999). "Empirical Modeling of Money Demand," in Lutkepohl, Helmut, Jurgen Wolters eds., Money Demand in Europe. Heidelberg: Physica, pp. 29-49.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and David F. Hendry (1999). "Encompassing and Rational Expectations: How Sequential Corroboration can Imply Refutation," Empirical Economics, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 1-21.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and James G. MacKinnon (1999). "Distributions of Error Correction Tests for Cointegration," International Finance Discussion Papers 655. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Sunil Sharma (1999). "Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece," in Lutkepohl, Helmut, Jurgen Wolters eds., Money Demand in Europe. Heidelberg: Physica, pp. 151-170.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Kevin M. Prestwich (1999). "Friedman and Schwartz (1982) Revisited: Assessing Annual and Phase-Average Models of Money Demand in the United Kingdom," in Lutkepohl, Helmut, Jurgen Wolters eds., Money Demand in Europe. Heidelberg: Physica, pp. 135-149.
• de Brouwer, Gordon, and Neil R. Ericsson (1998). "Modeling Inflation in Australia," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 433-449.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1998). "Empirical Modeling of Money Demand," Empirical Economics, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 295-315.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Jaime Marquez (1998). "A Framework for Economic Forecasting," Econometrics Journal, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. C228-66.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Jaime Marquez (1998). "A Framework for Economic Forecasting," International Finance Discussion Papers 626. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Sunil Sharma (1998). "Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece," Empirical Economics, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 417-436.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Grayham E. Mizon (1998). "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 16, no. 4, pp. 370-387.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Grayham E. Mizon (1998). "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 616. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Kevin M. Prestwich (1998). "Friedman and Schwartz (1982) Revisited: Assessing Annual and Phase-Average Models of Money Demand in the United Kingdom," Empirical Economics, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 401-415.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Kevin M. Prestwich (1998). "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, vol. 100, no. 1, pp. 289-324.
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1998). "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," in Whiteley, Paul,F. ed., Economic Policy, Vol. 1. Williston, Vt.: Elgar; distributed by American International Distribution Corporation, pp. 560-590.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Kevin M. Prestwich (1997). "The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878-1993," International Finance Discussion Papers 596. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1997). "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in "Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom" by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," in Hamouda, Omar,F., J. C. Rowley R. eds., The Reappraisal of Econometrics. Williston, Vt.: Elgar; distributed by American International Distribution Corporation, pp. 256-286.
• Campos, Julia, Neil R. Ericsson, and David F. Hendry (1996). "Cointegration Tests in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Journal of Econometrics, vol. 70, no. 1, pp. 187-220.
• Eika, Kari H., Neil R. Ericsson, and Ragnar Nymoen (1996). "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," International Finance Discussion Papers 568. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Eika, Kari H., Neil R. Ericsson, and Ragnar Nymoen (1996). "Hazards in Implementing a Monetary Conditions Index," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 58, no. 4, pp. 765-790.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Sunil Sharma (1996). "Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece," IMF Working Papers 96/62. International Monetary Fund.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Sunil Sharma (1996). "Broad Money Demand and Financial Liberalization in Greece," International Finance Discussion Papers 559. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Brouwer, Gordon de, and Neil R. Ericsson (1995). "Modelling Inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Brouwer, Gordon de, and Neil R. Ericsson (1995). "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers 9510. Reserve Bank of Australia.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1995). "Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models," Journal of Econometrics, vol. 69, no. 1, pp. 159-171.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and John S. Irons (1995). "The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," in Hoover, Kevin,D. ed., Macroeconometrics: Developments, Tensions, and Prospects. Boston; Dordrecht and London: Kluwer Academic, pp. 263-312.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and John S. Irons (1995). "The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory without Measurement," International Finance Discussion Papers 506. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1994). "Conditional and Structural Error Correction Models," International Finance Discussion Papers 487. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1994). "Parameter Constancy, Mean Square Forecast Errors, and Measuring Forecast Performance: An Exposition, Extensions, and Illustration," in Ericsson, Neil,R., John Irons S. eds., Testing Exogeneity. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 311-339.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1994). "Testing Exogeneity: An Introduction," in Ericsson, Neil,R., John Irons S. eds., Testing Exogeneity. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 3-38.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and John S. Irons, eds. (1994). Testing Exogeneity, Advanced Texts in Econometrics . New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Hong-Anh Tran (1994). "Cointegration, Seasonality, Encompassing, and the Demand for Money in the UK," in Hargreaves, Colin,P. ed., Nonstationary Time Series Analysis and Cointegration. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 179-224.
• Campos, Julia, Neil R. Ericsson, and David F. Hendry (1993). "Cointegration Tests in the Presence of Structural Breaks," International Finance Discussion Papers 440. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1993). "Testing for Common Features: Comment," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 380-383.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Jaime Marquez (1993). "Encompassing the Forecasts of U.S. Trade Balance Models," Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 19-31.
• Ericsson, Neil R., David F. Hendry, and Hong-Anh Tran (1993). "Cointegration, Seasonality, Encompassing, and the Demand for Money in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 457. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kamin, Steven B., and Neil R. Ericsson (1993). "Dollarization in Argentina," International Finance Discussion Papers 460. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Marquez, Jaime, and Neil R. Ericsson (1993). "Evaluating Forecasts of the U.S. Trade Balance," in Bryant, Ralph,C., Hooper Peter and Catherine Mann L. eds., Evaluating Policy Regimes: New Research in Empirical Macroeconomics. Washington: Brookings Institution, pp. 671-732.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1992). "Cointegration, Exogeneity, and Policy Analysis: An Overview," Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 251-280.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1992). "Cointegration, Exogeneity, and Policy Analysis: A Synopsis," Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 395-400.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1992). "Parameter Constancy, Mean Square Forecast Errors, and Measuring Forecast Performance: An Exposition, Extensions, and Illustration," Journal of Policy Modeling, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 465-495.
• Kremers, Jeroen J. M., Neil R. Ericsson, and Juan J. Dolado (1992). "The Power of Cointegration Tests," International Finance Discussion Papers 431. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Kremers, Jeroen J. M., Neil R. Ericsson, and Juan J. Dolado (1992). "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, vol. 54, no. 3, pp. 325-348.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1991). "Cointegration, Exogeneity, and Policy Analysis: An Overview," International Finance Discussion Papers 415. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1991). "Monte Carlo Methodology and the Finite Sample Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Nested and Non-Nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, vol. 59, no. 5, pp. 1249-1277.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1991). "Parameter Constancy, Mean Square Forecast Errors, and Measuring Forecast Performance: An Exposition, Extensions, and Illustration," International Finance Discussion Papers 412. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., Julia Campos, and Hong-Anh Tran (1991). "PC-Give and David Hendry's Econometric Methodology," International Finance Discussion Papers 406. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1991). "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in 'Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom' by Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz," American Economic Review, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 8-38.
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1991). "Modeling the Demand for Narrow Money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 833-881.
• Campos, Julia, Neil R. Ericsson, and David F. Hendry (1990). "An Analogue Model of Phase-Averaging Procedures," Journal of Econometrics, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 275-292.
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1990). "Modeling the Demand for Narrow Money in the United Kingdom and the United States," International Finance Discussion Papers 383. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Marquez, Jaime, and Neil R. Ericsson (1990). "Evaluating the Predictive Performance of Trade-Account Models," International Finance Discussion Papers 377. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., and David F. Hendry (1989). "Encompassing and Rational Expectations: How Sequential Corroboration can Imply Refutation," International Finance Discussion Papers 354. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Jaime R. Marquez (1989). "Exact and Approximate Multi-Period Mean-Square Forecast Errors for Dynamic Econometric Models," International Finance Discussion Papers 348. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1989). "An Econometric Analysis of UK Money Demand in MONETARY TRENDS IN THE UNITED STATES AND THE UNITED KINGDOM by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 355. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Campos, Julia, and Neil R. Ericsson (1988). "Econometric Modeling of Consumers' Expenditure in Venezuela," International Finance Discussion Papers 325. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Campos, Julia, Neil R. Ericsson, and David F. Hendry (1987). "An Analogue Model of Phase-Averaging Procedures," International Finance Discussion Papers 303. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1987). "Monte Carlo Methodology and the Finite Sample Properties of Statistics for Testing Nested and Non-Nested Hypotheses," International Finance Discussion Papers 317. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1986). "Post-Simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-Nested Hypothesis Test Statistics," International Finance Discussion Papers 276. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1986). "Post-Simulation Analysis of Monte Carlo Experiments: Interpreting Pesaran's (1974) Study of Non-Nested Hypothesis Test Statistics," Review of Economic Studies, vol. 53, no. 4, pp. 691-707.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and David F. Hendry (1985). "Conditional Econometric Modelling : An Application to New House Prices in the United Kingdom," International Finance Discussion Papers 254. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Hendry, David F., and Neil R. Ericsson (1985). "Assertion without Empirical Basis : An Econometric Appraisal of Monetary Trends in ... the United Kingdom, by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz," International Finance Discussion Papers 270. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1983). "Asymptotic Properties of Instrumental Variables Statistics for Testing Non-Nested Hypotheses," Review of Economic Studies, vol. 50, no. 2, pp. 287-304.
• Ericsson, Neil R. (1982). "Testing Linear Versus Logarithmic Regression Models: A Comment," Review of Economic Studies, vol. 49, no. 3, pp. 477-481.
• Ericsson, Neil R., and Peter Morgan (1978). "The Economic Feasibility of Shale Oil: An Activity Analysis," Bell Journal of Economics, vol. 9, no. 2, pp. 457-487.

Presentations

• conference

  March 2011

  Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics

  Testing for and Estimating Structural Breaks and Other Nonlinearities in a Dynamic Monetary Sector

• seminar

  April 2011

  American University

  The Intuition of Empirical Model Selection

• conference

  April 2011

  Federal Forecasters Conference

  Assessing Global Vector Autoregressions for Forecasting

• discussion

  April 2011

  SCIEA

  Forecasting and Monetary Policy Making

• conference

  June 2011

  Georgetown Center for Economic Research Conference

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• conference

  June 2011

  International Symposium on Forecasting

  Assessing Global Vector Autoregressions for Forecasting

• seminar

  June 2011

  Czech National Bank

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• conference

  July 2011

  Conference in Honor of Hashem Pesaran

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• conference

  August 2011

  Joint Statistical Meetings

  Empirical Evaluation of Global Vector Autoregressions

• conference

  August 2011

  Econometric Society European Meetings

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• conference

  August 2011

  European Economic Association Meetings

  Empirical Model Selection: Friedman and Schwartz Revisited

• conference

  September 2011

  OxMetrics Users Conference

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• conference

  October 2011

  International Atlantic Economic Society Conference

  Assessing Global Vector Autoregressions for Forecasting

• conference

  October 2011

  INET/Oxford Martin School Launch Conference

  Econometric Modeling in a Policy Context

• conference

  October 2011

  INET/Oxford Martin School Launch Conference

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• seminar

  November 2011

  SUNY Albany

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

• seminar

  November 2011

  Middlebury College

  Econometric Modeling in a Policy Context

• conference

  November 2011

  Southern Economic Association Conference

  Improving Global Vector Autoregressions

Other Activities