Preface

On February 23, 2004, Representative Richard W. Pombo, Chairman of the U.S. House Committee on Resources, requested that the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provide an assessment of authorizing oil and gas leasing in the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska. In his request, Representative Pombo cited Division C, Title III, Sections 30401 through 30412 of the H.R. 6, “Energy Policy Act of 2003,” as it passed in the House. Representative Pombo asked that the impact of this oil and gas leasing authorization be compared to the projections shown in the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 . In addition, Representative Pombo asked EIA to assess whether there were any “significant synergies” regarding the opening of ANWR to oil and gas leasing and the potential construction of an Alaska gas pipeline, which would transport natural gas from the Alaska North Slope to the lower 48 States. This report responds to Chairman Pombo’s request.

The legislation that established EIA in 1977 vested the organization with an element of statutory independence. EIA does not take positions on policy questions. It is the responsibility of EIA to provide timely, high-quality information and to perform objective, credible analyses in support of the deliberations of both public and private decision makers. This report should not be construed as representing the official position of the U.S. Department of Energy or the Administration.

The projections in the reference case used in this report are not statements of what will happen but of what might happen, given the assumptions and methodologies used. The reference case projections are business-as-usual trend forecasts, given known technology, technological and demographic trends, and current laws and regulations. Thus, they provide a policy-neutral starting point that can be used to analyze policy initiatives. EIA does not propose, advocate, or speculate on future legislative and regulatory changes. All laws are assumed to remain as currently enacted; however, the impacts of scheduled regulatory changes, when defined, are reflected.