By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 31, 2012
11:30 p.m. Tuesday, July 31, Japan time: All parameters for Sasebo pretty much remain the same as below, except the Joint Typhoon Warning Center is projecting Tropical Storm Damrey to top out at 63-mph sustained winds and 81-mph gusts late Wednesday into early Thursday as it rumbles past Sasebo Naval Base, some 170 miles south-southwest around midnight Wednesday.
Local forecasts call for winds up to 35 mph with 45-mph gusts, rain and isolated thunderstorms during the period. At 11 p.m., Damrey was 580 miles east-northeast of Okinawa and 505 miles east-southeast of Sasebo, chugging west at 18 mph.
Sasebo remains in Tropical Cyclone Condition of Readiness 3.
As for Typhoon Saola, it’s starting to pick up forward speed, 390 miles southwest of Okinawa at 11 p.m., and its track has wobbled left again, moving north-northwest at 9 mph.
Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight extended forecast calls for Saola’s outer bands to pound Okinawa with rainshowers, isolated thunderstorms and winds between 23 and 30 mph and gusts between 30 and 40 mph, peaking Thursday evening, with partly cloudy skies and periods of sunshine finally settling back in on the weekend.
Okinawa remains in seasonal TCCOR 4.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 30, 2012
7:30 p.m. Monday, July 30, Japan time: Looking like a windy week on Okinawa as Tropical Storm Saola nudges further east and Tropical Storm Damrey to the north and east, still well out of full fury's way, but close enough that each storm should take turns battering Okinawa with their outer wind bands.
Easterly winds and gusts topping 23 and 40 mph can be expected through Wednesday, turning southerly and southeasterly on Thursday and Friday, according to the latest extended forecast from Kadena's 18th Wing Weather Flight. Call it a supplemental rainy season: both Kadena's weather flight and local Japanese forecasts call for rain and isolated thunderstorms all week.
Damrey continues to swirl due east of Kadena, 1,030 miles, heading west-northwest at 5 mph. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for Damrey to roll 305 miles north-northeast of Kadena and 143 miles south-southwest of Sasebo Naval Base between 1 and 3 a.m. Thursday. It's forecast to top out at 69-mph sustained winds and 86-mph gusts on Wednesday.
As for Saola, it continues to wobble 470 miles south-southwest of Kadena. It's sitting quasi-stationary at the moment, but is forecast by the JTWC to track north-northwest, 340 miles west-southwest of Kadena at 5 a.m. Thursday, then continue within 50 miles of Taipei at 4 p.m. Thursday. JTWC forecasts Saola to top out at 120-mph sustained winds with 150-mph gusts Wednesday afternoon.
2:45 p.m. Monday, July 30, Japan time: Not by much, but Tropical Storms Saola’s and Damrey’s forecast tracks have each edging just a tad closer to Okinawa later this week. Which, of course, means a revision in forecast winds for the island starting as early as Monday evening.
Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight extended forecast calls for gusts picking up to 28 mph Monday evening along with isolated showers. Expect 20-mph winds and 35-mph gusts along with rainshowers Tuesday, increasing to 40-mph gusts with isolated thunderstorms Wednesday.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 29, 2012
3:20 p.m. Sunday, July 29, Japan time: Traffic is picking up out there in Typhoon Alley; a second storm spawned overnight Saturday, but Tropical Depression Damrey, like Tropical Storm Saola, appear to be moving on paths that should keep Okinawa out of harm’s way … for the moment.
Damrey was sitting quasi-stationary about 1,250 miles east of Okinawa at 3 p.m. Sunday. Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts call for it to pick up forward speed and start tracking west-northwest, taking it 305 miles north-northeast of Okinawa and 160 miles south of Sasebo Naval Base between 9 p.m. and midnight Wednesday. It should top out at 52-mph sustained winds and 63-mph gusts at its center around 9 a.m. Wednesday. FYI, Damrey is Cambodian for elephant.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 28, 2012
11 p.m. Saturday, July 28, Japan time: Tropical storm Saola, which spawned overnight east of the Philippines, at this point doesn’t appear to be much of a threat to Okinawa, forecast to rumble some 425 miles west-southwest of Kadena Air Base around midnight Wednesday.
However, officials with Kadena’s 18th Wing Weather Flight say it’s “too early to say” definitively which way it will head. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s forecast track takes Saola 60 miles south of Taipei, Taiwan, at 6 p.m. Thursday, but that dynamic aids used to forecast tropical storms’ movement s at this point are “all over the place,” some pointing Saola just west of Okinawa, others well west of Taiwan.
Kadena's five-day weather forecast calls for winds and rain to pick up on Wednesday, with winds gusting between 35 and 40 mph come afternoon.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 20, 2012
8 p.m. Friday, July 20, Japan time: A possible tropical cyclone northeast of Manila is now the subject of a Joint Typhoon Warning Center formation alert, which was issued at 5 p.m. The disturbance appears headed west for the moment, into what JTWC calls a favorable area for development, so, very likely, PST is eyeballing the ninth storm of the northwest Pacific's tropical cyclone season.
While it appears to be moving away from Okinawa, the island is not out of the woods weatherwise. A system unrelated to the one near the Philippines will make Tuesday a wild and windy one for Okinawa. Kadena Air Base weather's long-range forecast calls for isolated showers and possible thunderstorms with southeasterly winds of between 23 and 35 mph and gusts between 40 and 52 mph..
Keep it here. PST will keep a lookout.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 17, 2012
6 p.m. Tuesday, July 17, Japan time: Tropical Storm Khanun has decided to edge closer to Okinawa, 91 miles north-northeast early this evening.
But while sustained 58-mph winds or greater are not forecast, and thus no accelerated tropical cyclone conditions of readiness, officials at Kadena Air Base’s 18th Wing Weather Flight are posting a high-wind alert for 40-mph gusts for early Tuesday evening.
Khanun is forecast to skedaddle out of the area rapidly toward the north-northwest and skim the West Sea coast of Korea, packing sustained 46-mph winds and 58-mph gusts at its center early Thursday morning. Should be a wet, gusty one for Osan and Kunsan Air Bases.
In case anybody wondered, Khanun is Thai for Jackfruit.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 16, 2012
6 p.m. Monday, July 16, Japan time: Tropical Depression 08W, as yet unnamed, continues to track rapidly northwest on a path taking it between Japan’s southwestern islands of Kyushu and Okinawa, then curve quickly north-northeast toward the south coast of Korea.
Having formed too far north and too close to land masses to really mount a serious charge, 08W should rake Okinawa with northerly winds and Kyushu with southeasterly winds up to 25 mph Tuesday afternoon and evening.
By Dave Ornauer
Published: July 15, 2012
1:30 a.m. Monday, July 16, Japan time: Doesn’t appear as if this one will become monstrous, but the eighth numbered tropical cyclone of the northwest Pacific’s season is close enough to be of concern to Okinawa, Japan’s main southwestern island of Kyushu and Korea’s west coast.
08W is forecast to pass 150 miles northeast of Okinawa around 3 p.m. Tuesday, packing moderate tropical storm-force winds of 46-mph sustained and 58-mph gusts at its center. At this point, Kadena Air Base 18th Wing Weather Flight officials anticipate 17-mph winds and 29-mph gusts occurring Tuesday afternoon, although those projections could change.
