‹ Analysis & Projections

AEO2012 Early Release Overview

Release Date: January 23, 2012   |  Full Report Release Date: April 2012   |   Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383ER(2012)

 

Table 1. Comparison of projections in the AEO2012 and AEO2011 Reference case, 2009-2035 
            2025 2035
Energy and economic factors   2009 2010 AEO2012 AEO2011 AE2012 AEO2011
Primary energy (quadrillion Btu)
Petroleum       13.93 14.37 17.48 16.19 16.81 16.72
Dry natural gas       21.09 22.10 26.63 24.60 28.51 27.00
Coal       21.63 22.08 22.51 23.64 23.51 26.01
Nuclear power       8.36 8.44 9.60 9.17 9.35 9.14
Hydropower       2.67 2.51 2.97 3.04 3.06 3.09
Biomass       3.72 4.05 6.73 7.20 9.68 8.63
Other renewable energy   1.11 1.34 2.13 2.58 2.80 3.22
Other       0.47 0.64 0.76 0.88 0.88 0.78
Total       72.97 75.52 88.79 87.29 94.59 94.59
Net imports (quadrillion Btu)
Liquid fuels       20.90 20.35 16.33 19.91 16.22 19.85
Natural gas       2.76 2.66 -0.81 1.14 -1.39 0.23
Coal/other (- indicates export) -0.90 -1.58 -1.44 -0.51 -1.29 -0.50
Total 22.77 21.43 14.08 20.54 13.54 19.58
Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
Liquid fuels       36.49 37.25 37.04 39.84 38.00 41.70
Natural gas       23.42 24.71 25.80 25.73 27.11 27.24
Coal       19.62 20.76 20.60 22.61 21.57 24.30
Nuclear power   8.36 8.44 9.60 9.17 9.35 9.14
Hydropower       2.67 2.51 2.97 3.04 3.06 3.09
Biomass       2.72 2.88 4.52 4.71 5.85 5.25
Other renewable energy   1.11 1.34 2.13 2.58 2.80 3.22
Net electricity imports   0.32 0.29 0.28 0.27 0.24 0.25
Total       94.70 98.16 102.93 107.95 107.97 114.19
Liquid fuels (million barrels per day)
Domestic crude oil production   5.36 5.47 6.42 5.88 6.12 5.95
Other domestic production   3.66 4.22 5.71 5.84 6.66 6.84
Net imports       9.72 9.53 7.39 9.22 7.36 9.14
Consumption       18.81 19.17 19.46 20.99 20.08 21.93
Natural gas (trillion cubic feet)
Dry gas production + supplemental   20.65 21.65 26.07 24.04 27.90 26.38
Net imports       2.68 2.58 -0.84 1.08 -1.43 0.18
Consumption       22.85 24.13 25.20 25.07 26.48 26.55
Coal (million short tons)
Production       1,089 1,098 1,144 1,202 1,204 1,333
Net imports       -38 -64 -57 -19 -49 -18
Consumption       997 1,051 1,087 1,182 1,155 1,315
Prices (2010 dollars)
Imported low-sulfur, light crude oil (dollars per barrel)   62.37 79.39 132.50 118.57 144.56 126.03
Imported crude oil (dollars per barrel)   59.72 75.87 121.23 108.34 132.69 114.69
Domestic natural gas at wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet)   3.85 4.16 5.23 5.47 6.52 6.48
Domestic coal at minemouth (dollars per short ton)   33.62 35.61 43.87 33.51 49.24 34.22
Average electricity price (cents per kilowatthour)   9.9 9.8 9.3 9.0 9.5 9.3
Economic indicators
Real gross domestic product (billion 2005 dollars)   12.703 13.088 19.176 20.020 24.639 25.692
GDP chain-type price index (2005 = 1.000)   1.097 1.110 1.459 1.450 1.762 1.749
Real disposable personal income (billion 2005 dollars)   9.883 10.062 14.474 15.118 18.252 19.224
Value of manufacturing shipments (billion 2005 dollars)   4.052 4.260 5.735 6.016 6.270 6.770
Primary energy intensity (thousand Btu per 2005 dollar of GDP)   7.45 7.50 5.37 5.39 4.38 4.44
Carbon dioxide emissions (million metric tons) 5.425 5.634 5.618 5.938 5.806 6.311
Notes: Quantities reported in quadrillion Btu are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Both coal consumption and coal production include waste coal consumed in the electric power and industrial sectors.
Sources: AEO2012 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2012.D121011B; and AEO2011 National Energy Modeling System, run REF2011.D020911A.

 

Sections

Data Tables

Reference Case Summary & Detailed Tables

A1 Total Energy Supply and Disposition Demand    
A2 Energy Consumption by Sector and Source    
A3 Energy Prices by Sector and Source    
A4 Residential Sector Key Indicators and Consumption    
A5 Commercial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption    
A6 Industrial Sector Key Indicators and Consumption    
A7 Transportation Sector Key Indicators and Delivered Energy Consumption    
A8 Electricity Supply, Disposition, Prices, and Emissions    
A9 Electricity Generating Capacity    
A10 Electricity Trade    

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