Energy Consumption by Primary Fuel

Total primary energy consumption, which was 101.4 quadrillion Btu in 2007, grows by 10 percent in the AEO2012 Reference case, from 98.2 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 108.0 quadrillion Btu in 2035—6 quadrillion Btu less than the AEO2011 projection for 2035. The fossil fuel share of energy consumption falls from 83 percent of total U.S. energy demand in 2010 to 77 percent in 2035.

Biofuel consumption has been growing and is expected to continue to grow over the projection period. However, the projected increase would present challenges, particularly for volumes of ethanol beyond the saturation level of the E10 gasoline pool. Those additional volumes are likely to be slower in reaching the market, as infrastructure and consumer demand adjust. In the AEO2012 Reference case, some of the demand for biofuel, which in 2035 is projected to displace more than 600 thousand barrels per day of demand for other liquid fuels, is as a direct replacement for diesel and gasoline.

figure dataTotal U.S. consumption of liquid fuels, including both fossil fuels and biofuels, grows from 37.2 quadrillion Btu (19.2 million barrels per day) in 2010 to 38.0 quadrillion Btu (20.1 million barrels per day) in 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case (Figure 8). As in AEO2011, biofuel consumption accounts for most of the growth; with expectations of additional waivers, the biofuel portion of liquid fuels consumption in 2035 is 3.9 quadrillion Btu in AEO2012, slightly (0.2 quadrillion Btu) higher than projected in AEO2011. The transportation sector dominates demand for liquid fuels, with its share (as measured by energy content) growing slowly from 72 percent of total liquids consumption in 2010 to 73 percent in 2035.

In the AEO2012 Reference case, natural gas consumption rises from 24.1 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 26.5 trillion cubic feet in 2035, about the same level as in the AEO2011 Reference case. The largest share of the growth is for electricity generation. Demand for natural gas in electricity generation grows from 7.4 trillion cubic feet in 2010 to 8.9 trillion cubic feet in 2035. A portion of the growth is attributable to the retirement of 33 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity over the projection period.

Total coal consumption—including the portion of CTL consumed as liquids—increases from 20.8 quadrillion Btu (1,051 million short tons) in 2010 to 22.1 quadrillion Btu (1,155 million short tons) in 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case. Coal consumption, mostly for electric power generation, falls off through 2015 as retirements of coal-fired capacity more than offset an increase of about 9 gigawatts in capacity due to come online in 2011 and 2012. After 2015, coal-fired generation increases slowly as the remaining plants are used more intensively. Coal consumption in the electric power sector in 2035 in the AEO2012 Reference case is about 2.1 quadrillion Btu (98 million short tons) lower than projected in the AEO2011 Reference case.

Total consumption of marketed renewable fuels grows by 2.8 percent per year in the AEO2012 Reference case. Growth in consumption of renewable fuels results mainly from the implementation of the Federal renewable fuel standard (RFS) for transportation fuels and State RPS programs for electricity generation. Marketed renewable fuels include wood, municipal waste, biomass, and hydroelectricity in the end-use sectors; hydroelectricity, geothermal, municipal solid waste, biomass, solar, and wind for generation in the electric power sector; and ethanol for gasoline blending and biomass-based diesel in the transportation sector, of which 3.9 quadrillion Btu is included with liquid fuel consumption in 2035. Excluding hydroelectricity, renewable energy consumption in the electric power sector grows from 1.4 quadrillion Btu in 2010 to 3.4 quadrillion Btu in 2035, with biomass accounting for 30 percent of the growth and wind 44 percent. Consumption of solar energy grows the fastest, but starting from a small base it accounts for only a small share of the total in 2035.